The current round of tariff sparring between China and the US has gone unnoticed by many: Trump has made a lot of tough remarks about China, but no matter how harsh they are, he never mentioned going to war with China. This indicates that he believes the US military does not have the capability for this at present. However, the problem lies in the fact that Admiral Samuel Paparo of the US Indo-Pacific Command believes: the Chinese mainland may be making its move.

Admiral Samuel John Paparo is a representative of the US military hawks. The "Hellish Landscape" plan for the Taiwan Strait was his brainchild. On April 10th local time, when talking about the current situation in the Taiwan Strait, Paparo mentioned the following important viewpoints:

1. He believes that the possibility of the mainland taking military action against Taiwan has increased by 300%. The recent PLA circumnavigation military exercises around Taiwan were not just drills; they were clear pre-war rehearsals.

2. He believes that if there is a war in the Taiwan Strait, the US GDP will directly fall by more than 10%, and the number of deaths caused by despair will reach 500,000, which will be a calamity for all humanity.

3. He believes that Russia intends to get involved in this conflict, and at that time, Russian troops may form an alliance with the mainland to jointly deal with the US coalition in the Taiwan Strait. He came to this conclusion because there have been many joint actions near the US coast recently, which shows Putin's ambition.

4. He believes that the relationship between the US and its Asian allies is actually very fragile. If the US does not increase its investment in the Asia-Pacific region, Japan and South Korea will have to develop nuclear weapons for self-defense. Otherwise, they cannot face the powerful Chinese mainland.

From Paparo's words, it is not difficult to imagine how urgent the Pentagon hawks are now. But the problem is, they are in a hurry for nothing. Without revitalizing American manufacturing, Trump cannot build ships or missiles. What Paparo said essentially can only scare Japan and South Korea while giving the Tsai administration a reason to continue paying tribute to the US military.

There is one point in what he said that is worth discussing: will Russia participate in the war? Perhaps you have noticed that during the recent Sino-US trade war, the Russian government has mostly maintained an attitude of watching and waiting. After all, Russia is not on Trump's list of reciprocal tariffs. The White House explained this as wanting to avoid affecting US-Russia negotiations. And on April 10th, the second round of talks to promote relations between the US and Russia was completed, looking very good. This naturally means that US-Russia relations are improving. Under these circumstances, whether Russia will really support the Chinese mainland at the critical moment of the Taiwan Strait remains controversial among Chinese experts.

In addition, Paparo still fantasizes that Japan and South Korea will intervene in the Taiwan Strait conflict, which is somewhat naive. It's not that Japan and South Korea will side with mainland China, but they should have seen the recent military exercises. The PLA will first carry out a cleanup of the energy facilities of the Taiwan military. If Japan and South Korea really intervene, this method will also apply to them.

In summary, Defense Secretary Hackett has already clearly stated: the US does not want to engage in military confrontation with China. But it seems that the Pentagon hawks do not want to listen to Hackett's nonsense. They still hope that more budgets will arrive as soon as possible. Let us continue to follow the movements of these hawks.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7491858745610240550/

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