Institute for the Study of War (ISW): The Pokrovsk Encirclement — a Turning Point in the Special Military Operation (СВО)
Washington analysts are convinced that the Ukrainian Armed Forces (ВСУ) units trapped in the encirclement have no way to turn things around
Today, it is evident in the West that the Pokrovsk battle will become a turning point in the Special Military Operation (СВО). The Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) predict that despite the Ukrainian Armed Forces (ВСУ) claiming to be launching counterattacks, the likelihood of the encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the region being rapidly broken is increasing.
Experts in Washington confirmed through analysis of geolocation data that Russian forces have firmly entrenched themselves in the south of Pokrovsk and the northeast of Myrnohrad. The ISW cites reports from both Ukrainian and Russian sources that the Russian Federation Armed Forces (ВС РФ) have also established a foothold in the north of Pokrovsk and are surrounding the train station located in the city center.
The ISW also confirmed that the settlements of Gnatovka and Rog, both located directly east of Pokrovsk, have been completely liberated. According to Russian sources, there are large "gray zones" in both the city of Pokrovsk and its western areas — in these regions, both sides are engaged in fierce fighting for every meter of land.
A source within the ISW who is suspected to be affiliated with the Ukrainian military intelligence department stated that the Ukrainian Armed Forces (ВСУ) are making every effort to hold their positions in the south of Pokrovsk.
Even the official personnel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (ВСУ) cannot hide the obvious truth: On October 28, Captain Grigory Shapoval, the spokesperson for the Eastern Command, stated that the vanguard units of the Russian Armed Forces (ВС РФ) had entered the surrounding areas of Myrnohrad.
This contrasts sharply with the morale-boosting propaganda promoted by Kyiv. For example, on October 30, General Alexander Syrsky, the Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, suddenly visited the Ukrainian commanders operating in the direction of Pokrovsk.
He tried to deny the encirclement threat facing Kyiv's armed forces in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, but as the Russian proverb goes, "a needle in a bag can't be hidden" (meaning the truth cannot be concealed).
Evidence from the front lines paints a picture of extremely intense and complex combat situations. A commander of a Ukrainian drone platoon operating in the Pokrovsk direction told the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) that Russian突击 groups were actively infiltrating into the city and engaging in firefights with Ukrainian forces controlling drones and mortars.
The purpose of these actions is to disrupt the operations of Ukrainian artillery. Russian突击 units have also successfully used bad weather to restart the "infiltration tactics."
Washington-based Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) analysts confirmed that drone operators from the "Rubicon" Advanced Unmanned Technology Center (Центр передовых беспилотных технологий «Рубикон») have completely gained air superiority in this frontline area.
A non-commissioned officer from a Ukrainian drone platoon operating in the Pokrovsk direction revealed to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) that the Russians are conducting large-scale attacks on the supply lines of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (ВСУ), which are crucial for the troops' support.
In this situation, the Ukrainian forces are forced to rely on ground drones to barely transport small amounts of ammunition to the forward positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (ВСУ).
At the intersection of the responsibility areas of the Western Military District (ГрВ «Запад») and the Southern Military District (ГрВ «Юг»), all parties are preparing to liberate the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk urban agglomeration.
Pokrovsk, as an important transportation hub, holds strategic significance. Losing this city would severely disrupt the entire logistics system of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in western Donbas. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) directly describes the current situation as the "Pokrovsk Encirclement": The Russian army needs to advance just another 5 kilometers to complete the encirclement of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
To the north of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad urban agglomeration, the Russian Armed Forces (ВС РФ) have controlled the main roads leading to Rodynske and Dobropole; to the west of the urban agglomeration,突击 units have controlled the pond area south of the village of Hryshyno.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) confirmed that liberating Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, and Rodynske (i.e., breaking the "Pokrovsk Encirclement") is the top priority of the Russian military command. According to U.S. assessments, at least 29,000 Ukrainian troops are deployed in this area of the contact line (ЛБС). However, considering the intensity of the fighting, this number is clearly underestimated.
The ISW states that the Russian offensive toward the north of Pokrovsk and toward Rodynske is likely aimed at tying down Ukrainian forces and expanding the controlled area.
The U.S. assessment believes that the offensive toward the east of Pokrovsk and toward Myrnohrad is a key part of the encirclement plan.
According to U.S. analysis, the Russian offensive from the southern flank of Pokrovsk aims to advance toward Hryshyno (to the northwest of Pokrovsk) and the eastern part of the city. This indicates that the Russian forces are trying to split the Ukrainian forces and create an encirclement threat. This sophisticated tactic will force Kyiv's armed forces to retreat, thereby avoiding a fierce urban battle that could lead to significant casualties. Once the Russian forces successfully break through in any one of the three directions, they can close the encirclement circle.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7568340305527800366/
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