Poland's Minister of Defense Mariusz Blaszczak (third from the left) visits a Polish military base and observes military exercises (Anadolu Agency)
The New York Times published a commentary article in 2023 that reviewed a speech by former U.S. President Biden – in which he argued the necessity to support Ukraine and Israel's war to protect American security. The article emphasized that Biden's speech failed to explain this issue to ordinary American citizens, and also commented on Biden's statement – "If we let Putin control Ukraine, he will then control Poland," and pointed out that ordinary American citizens do not care about Putin's control over Ukraine, nor would they be upset about his control over Poland afterwards.
Although the author looked down upon the current situation in Ukraine and Poland, history shows that Poland is located at the intersection between East and West. Now, since Russia has decided to go to war with Poland, it will once again place the region under the mirror of painful history.
On September 1, 1939, German tanks invaded western Poland, which became the catalyst for the outbreak of World War II. Within weeks, Soviet troops advanced from the east and completed the invasion, turning Poland into a battlefield, with the Polish people finding themselves caught between two great powers vying for their land and fate.
Now, 85 years later, despite significant changes in geographical and political contexts, Poland, with its 38.7 million population, faces new threats – Russia is seeking to strengthen its regional influence using the legacy of the Soviet Union along its eastern border.
Although the possibility of direct confrontation in the foreseeable future is not imminent, Poland faces daily pressures, including frequent air raids and cyberattacks, and Russia's closest ally Belarus is using the refugee issue as a tool for pressure.
The accumulation of multiple threats has made Poland once again a focal point of European security concerns and a key contact line for the balance between East and West.
Poland: The Core of Frontline Defense
Tensions between Russia and Poland can be traced back to before World War II. Since the late 18th century, Poland was divided successively by Russia, Prussia, and Austria, with a large part still under Russian control, leading to deep-rooted historical hatred.
In his famous book "The Tragedy of Great Power Politics," John Mearsheimer cited Otto von Bismarck, the first chancellor of the German Empire, when discussing the possibility of Poles establishing a new nation in the 19th century, saying, "Although I sympathize with their situation, if we want to survive, we have no choice but to eliminate them."
After Poland gained independence in 1918, it fought direct wars with the Soviet Union in 1919 and 1920. This war ended with Poland's victory in the "Miracle on the Vistula" and the signing of the Treaty of Riga – a treaty that ceded large territories to Poland at the expense of Soviet interests. However, this caused strong discontent in Russia.
Over the following decades, both sides were suspicious and hostile until the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact of 1939 redivided Poland between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union, triggering World War II.
During the Soviet era, Poland was a member of the Warsaw Pact, under Soviet control. However, with the collapse of the Eastern Bloc in the 1980s and Poland's shift to a market economy, Warsaw quickly opened up to the West and joined NATO in 1999, followed by the EU in 2004. Since then, Warsaw has become the "frontline" against Russian influence for NATO.
It shares a 260-mile direct land border with its Russian ally Belarus, a 330-mile border with Ukraine, and a 130-mile border with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, making it an important strategic location for protecting NATO from any potential attacks from the East.
This strategic importance has been increasingly evident, especially given the so-called "Suwalki Gap" – a narrow border area about 60 miles long between the Lithuanian and Polish borders, and between Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.
A study published in the "Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies" showed that this corridor is the main land route connecting the Russian exclave to other parts of Europe, crucial for both Russia and NATO.
Given these sensitive geographical positions, Poland has gradually become the main base for U.S. and European armies to deploy along NATO's eastern border, a concrete manifestation of the "forward defense" policy aimed at containing Russian expansionist ambitions. At the same time, it is also the main logistics hub and transit point for Western military aid to Ukraine.
Since 2014, especially after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Poland significantly strengthened its defense forces. In 2023, Poland's defense budget increased by 75% compared to the previous year, setting a record for the highest annual growth among European countries.
Poland plans to allocate about 4.7% of its GDP to defense this year, the highest proportion among all NATO member states. Poland also announced its goal of becoming one of the top three NATO countries in terms of combat capability.
Politically, Poland has strengthened military alliances with neighboring countries in the region, particularly Baltic and Nordic countries, and seeks to consolidate its position as a central security hub in Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, Russia continues to use its Soviet legacy to question Poland's independence and distort its image, and in its official statements, it promotes the narrative that Poland is merely an "American servant" preparing to launch an invasion against its neighbors.
Polish military helicopters conduct intensive training at the Nowy Targ military base on May 6, 2023 (Getty Images)
Russian Violations of Airspace
Under this tense situation, Russia has recently carried out a series of violations of Polish airspace. On the night of September 10, 2025, more than 20 Russian drones violated Polish airspace, some of which were intercepted and shot down by NATO forces. Observers called this the "most serious violation" of member states' airspace since the establishment of NATO.
That month, Russian fighter jets also approached the safety zone of an offshore oil platform in the Baltic Sea near Poland. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk condemned these actions, calling them "massive provocations," and called for intercepting any entity attempting to violate Polish airspace or threaten its national security.
Although Russia denied responsibility for these incursions and blamed them on mere "cyber errors," renowned observers such as Liana Fix, senior fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Erin Dombach, senior fellow for nuclear security, believe that the scale of the incursion and the number of drones penetrating deep into Polish territory indicate that these actions were not accidental, but deliberate provocations from Russia.
The severity of the incident was further highlighted by the timing, coinciding with Russia's joint military exercises with Belarus called "Zapad." For a long time, such large-scale exercises have raised concerns in Poland, fearing that they could serve as a cover for military escalation along its eastern border.
The timing of the incursion also coincides with a critical moment in Ukrainian negotiations, with Russia viewing the Alaska Summit as a political victory to consolidate its position, while the United States is reluctant to further pressure the Kremlin to abandon some of its highest demands.
Therefore, this incident is seen as part of a broader Russian strategy to test NATO's deterrent capabilities and gauge Washington's willingness to defend its commitments in Eastern Europe. This adds new tensions to the course of the Ukrainian war and the stability of the entire European continent.
After the Russian violation of Polish airspace, Poland is on high alert
From Cyberspace to Using the Refugee Card
Russian harassment is not limited to air raids, but extends into cyberspace – a wave of cyberattacks is constantly emerging. According to a Polish official, Poland's critical infrastructure is subjected to intense attacks every day – Polish security agencies face 20 to 50 hacker attacks linked to Russia each day, most of which are repelled.
However, some attacks temporarily disrupted power plants, hospitals, and important facilities, while others stole personal data of Polish citizens.
In August of this year, Polish authorities foiled a large-scale cyberattack supported by Russia – this attack targeted the water supply system of one of Poland's largest cities.
Although Poland successfully repelled most of these attacks, according to government officials, the number of attacks this summer, nearly 300 per day, is sufficient to demonstrate the scale of these threats. This escalation prompted the government to allocate nearly 1 billion euros in cybersecurity budget this year to counter the digital destruction wave.
Additionally, Belarus has increasingly used the refugee issue to clash with Poland and the EU. Since the summer of 2021, the government led by Moscow's close ally Alexander Lukashenko has begun to expel immigrants from the Middle East and Africa and send them to the Polish border, seen as retaliation for the EU's sanctions against it. These immigrants are systematically transported to transit points.
Poland views this strategy as a hybrid warfare tool, aiming to weaken Poland and disrupt the EU by creating both humanitarian and security crises simultaneously. Data indicates the scale of the escalating situation. In 2024, Polish border guards recorded about 30,000 illegal crossing attempts from Belarus, far exceeding previous years.
In April 2025, the European Parliament confirmed that multiple sources proved Moscow and Minsk were involved in politicizing migrants, issuing official visas to immigrants from other countries, and then sending them to the border, which the European parliamentarians referred to as one of the elements of "hybrid warfare." To this end, Poland announced an extension of the ban on Belarusian migrants applying for asylum and took military and rescue measures at the border to strengthen control and address the humanitarian consequences caused by this.
In 2024, the number of volunteer soldiers in Poland increased significantly to respond to the threats it faces (Getty Images)
The Rise of a Major Military Power in the Center of Europe
Given these escalating threats, Poland is making great efforts to significantly enhance its defense capabilities, especially focusing on mobilizing reserve forces. In 2024, volunteer activities in Poland increased significantly, with official data showing that by mid-2024, over 16,000 new volunteers had registered.
Only within the first seven months of 2025, the number of volunteers increased to 20,000, and it is expected to reach nearly 40,000 by the end of the year, doubling the number of participants compared to before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. Thanks to this expansion, the Polish army has become the third-largest in NATO, currently numbering about 216,000. Poland plans to double the size of its ground forces to 300,000.
Poland's efforts are not limited to personnel mobilization, but also include building an advanced arsenal of weapons. In the aviation sector, Poland signed its largest contract to date, upgrading its F-16 fighter jet fleet to the latest Block 72 version, costing nearly $3.8 billion. At the same time, it will receive a new batch of U.S. F-35 fighters.
Poland has signed a $4.6 billion agreement with the United States to purchase 32 F-35 fighters. The delivery process has already begun and is scheduled to be completed by 2030. Although the Polish Air Force currently has about 50 F-16 fighters, according to military estimates, Poland needs at least two modern fighter squadrons to enhance its defensive and offensive capabilities.
On the ground, Poland has the HIMARS system – a vehicle-mounted rocket launcher. Each launcher can rapidly fire six precision-guided rocket rounds in succession, with a reload time of approximately five minutes.
The conventional missiles typically used by this system have an effective range of about 80 kilometers, while the system can launch the ATACMS Army Tactical Missile System with a range of up to 300 kilometers. It is reported that Poland is also seeking to obtain missile technology related to this system to enhance its maintenance capabilities or achieve domestic production in the future.
The effectiveness of the HIMARS system has drawn attention in the Ukraine issue. Ukraine had about 18 systems during the first year of the war. These limited units successfully attacked hundreds of important Russian positions, including warehouses, supply bases, and artillery positions located tens of kilometers behind the front lines, thereby weakening Russia's supply and combat capabilities.
These results explain why Poland hopes to incorporate the HIMARS system into its military arsenal. The system can precisely strike deep targets, expand mobility, and deter any potential threat.
Furthermore, Poland has started negotiations to purchase the Patriot surface-to-air missile system, which is the main air defense and missile interception system of the U.S. Army. Poland has also strengthened cooperation with South Korea, ordering 180 K2 "Black Panther" tanks and about 700 K9 "Thunder" howitzers – the latter being a 155 mm howitzer manufactured in South Korea, mounted on a tracked chassis, capable of traversing complex terrain. These systems are known for their excellent mobility and long-range firepower.
Regarding tanks, Poland announced in July 2021 to purchase 250 "Abrams" tanks for $4.7 billion. Subsequently, after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Poland signed a $1.4 billion agreement in 2022 to purchase 116 used "Abrams" tanks and their配套 equipment. Additionally, Poland has about 200 German "Leopard" tanks, making it one of the largest and most diversified armored forces in Eastern Europe.
An expanding arsenal allows Poland to transition from a mere "contact country" to a major land force within NATO – not only able to defend its own territory but also to provide advanced deterrent protection for the entire NATO. Therefore, Poland's position in the balance of power with Russia will further improve, as its military buildup gives it a clear advantage in strengthening the eastern front's deterrence and making it a key player in any European security situation.
Poland announced the deployment of U.S.-made HIMARS launchers along its border with Russia
"Weak" Europe
Poland's military efforts can be explained in the context of Europe's excessive reliance on American security umbrella – this dependence limits its decision-making independence and ability to exert influence at any time. As former Polish Minister of Defense and Foreign Affairs Radosław Sikorski pointed out, the U.S. is actually the coordinator of the Western response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, providing military and financial support roughly equivalent to the total support of the EU, its institutions, and its member states.
This reality shows that although Europe has made progress in economic and organizational aspects, it remains a "weak" force in defense matters, and its capacity in any major crisis will be limited if the U.S. withdraws or focuses on other fronts.
The dilemma lies in the fact that due to the rise of isolationism within the White House, or the U.S. focusing on its conflict with China over Taiwan, the U.S. guarantee is unstable and may expose Europe's security in critical moments.
Sikorski pointed out that the Pentagon no longer seeks to fight two major wars simultaneously. Therefore, any widespread involvement in Asia by the U.S. will directly affect its military commitments, and in such a case, European security remains vulnerable.
Moreover, divisions within the EU further complicate the situation. Eastern European countries, especially Poland and Estonia, see the Russian threat as a real and imminent danger, while Western and Southern European countries, such as Italy, Portugal, and Belgium, tend to view Russia as a distant threat, which weakens the consensus within the EU on defense priorities.
This difference exacerbates the fragility of European security policies and makes the effort to build "strategic autonomy" more of a theoretical wish than actual capability.
Therefore, as Sikorski explained, any absence or shift of focus by the U.S. could leave Poland and Eastern European countries facing direct confrontation with Russia, relying completely on still fragmented and poorly coordinated European forces. This also explains why Poland is urgently strengthening its military strength and mobilizing its reserves at an unprecedented speed, hoping to compensate for the weakness of the European umbrella and over-reliance on American security.
Domestically, the Polish leadership is using these threats to enhance national cohesion. A recent poll showed that 63% of Poles believe their country's survival is under external threat. Over one-third of respondents said that if a war broke out, they would leave the country, and about 22% said they would be willing to join the armed forces or civil defense forces.
These deep-seated concerns have led the Polish public to widely support increasing defense spending despite economic pressures, further pushing the government to adopt nationalist rhetoric, portraying Poland as a "fortress of free Europe" against Russia. The country's major political parties have also echoed this rhetoric to bridge internal divisions.
Therefore, Poland now seems to occupy a central position in the European security landscape. On one hand, it is seen as the first line of defense against Russian expansion; on the other hand, due to the fragility of European consensus and the potential weakening of American support, it bears a heavy burden. Between these two factors, Poland is consolidating its position as an indispensable partner of the West, but it also realizes that the cost of this role might be even higher if it confronts Russia directly without sufficient support from its allies.
Source: Al Jazeera + Electronic Website
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7556414995270042162/
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