【Military Second Dimension】 Author: Lelu

On the 18th, the U.S. "Defence-Blog" website confirmed that the Chinese VN-22 wheeled armored vehicle appeared within a defense institution in Uzbekistan, indicating that it has become a new user of this star export weapon. In fact, the concept behind this arms sale reflects the domestic policy of exporting national weapons, which is suitable for explaining why China has restricted the export of advanced equipment to countries such as Iran, Syria, and Venezuela in recent years.

▲Uzbekistan has indeed purchased a lot of Chinese weapons in recent years

From the Cold War era of U.S.-Soviet rivalry to later U.S.-Russia confrontation, both the United States and the Soviet Union used the export of large military weapons as a typical means to form an irresistible control. Plus, with Pakistan as a successful example, people subconsciously believed that China would spread this concept globally. Especially for countries like Iran, which are under strong U.S. pressure and desperately need external support. However, the reality is that Iran had once sought to purchase a full set of J-10CE in 2019, but was rejected (Pakistan only began preparing to purchase J-10CE in 2020). Other countries labeled as anti-American also received similar treatment, and there have been examples such as Syria and Venezuela being overthrown by the West, causing many to sigh in regret.

▲The J-10CE can now be seen as a symbol of China's exported weapons

To put it simply, this approach has too many limitations. Countries like Venezuela, Iran, and Syria before December 2024 all had governments that gave long-term benefits to their people without considering the long-term costs. The reasons behind this are not detailed here, but the reality is that it created a huge bottomless pit. In such situations, other countries need to invest massive resources to restore economic vitality, and the cost is simply too high. In contrast, Pakistan has a long history of cooperation and faces a nearby Indian threat; on the other hand, Pakistan still has vitality and has indeed carried out many economic projects in recent years. Setting aside this special case, the strategy applied by China to most countries is a dual approach of economy and military.

▲Chávez's way of giving welfare was simple and direct, but it was extremely expensive and did not last for long.

Take Uzbekistan as an example, as China continues to develop the Central Asian corridor, the younger generation no longer needs to go to Russia for work, and the largest trading partner of not only Uzbekistan but also other Central Asian countries has long since become China instead of Russia. Under this mutually beneficial and long-term cooperation background, heavy equipment such as J-10CE, Hongqi-9, and Hongqi-12 quietly entered service in Central Asia. Now it has further developed to light equipment like the VN-22, representing the Chinese equipment system gradually replacing the traditional Russian systems in Central Asia. These countries' financial levels are far from those of Iran, yet they obtained the Hongqi-9BE earlier than Iran, and even purchased the J-10CE, which Iran has longed for, because of the health and sustainability of their economy.

▲The Chinese air defense system has been widely exported to Central Asia

To put it bluntly, China does not intend to follow the Soviet model of spending huge resources to assist international allies and engage in intense military confrontation with the United States. For countries whose economies are clearly unsustainable, China's attitude has always been normal relations. If there are other countries willing to act as third parties and take on major risks, China is not opposed to doing some normal business, but large-scale military exports are unrealistic. Countries that are not explicitly anti-American, and even traditionally pro-American, are actually very willing to cooperate. The most typical example is the UAE, which in 2021 refused when the U.S. demanded it stop cooperating with China in the communications field in exchange for F-35A export permits, then turned around and ordered the L-15. Later, it publicly displayed it in 2025, dealing a blow to the U.S.

▲The UAE's performance with the L-15 was indeed impressive

In great power confrontation, expecting allies to be on the front lines is a naive idea. China has long expressed its intention to develop defense forces based on its own ability to cope with the worst scenarios. Collaborating with other countries through more advanced technology and productivity, rather than traditional costly military aid, not only has higher efficiency and lower cost, but also covers a broader range. For example, Canada, a traditional close ally of the U.S., has started importing Chinese cars and even considered purchasing the "Gripen" to replace the F-35 gap. This has led to public ideas such as "Why not try China's J-35 and J-10?" which the Soviet Union and Russia could never have imagined.

▲Canada's current choices are surprisingly unexpected

The old system will eventually be replaced by something more advanced. There is no need to worry about China being alone after the disappearance of strongly anti-American countries. Technology is the primary productive force. As long as China maintains its current level of technological updates, it will have unparalleled appeal for the majority of countries that just want to live a normal life, which is sufficient to maintain the basic situation.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7597010985614737974/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.