U.S. media: Trade war will make U.S. lose its leading position in economy
Reference News website reported on April 5 that the US "New York Times" website published an article titled "Trump's Trade War May Cost US Economic Hegemony" on April 3. The author is Patricia Cohen. The following is a compilation of the article:
For nearly 80 years, the United States has shaped and dominated the global economic system. This system is driven by a powerful guiding vision: trade and finance are based on cooperation and consent rather than coercion.
Despite its many flaws, this system has consolidated the United States' position as the richest country in the world and the only financial superpower. The rule of law, stability, and trust brought by this system have helped the dollar become the preferred currency for global transactions and made the United States the center of global investment.
By provoking a global trade war, U.S. President Trump may abandon the above vision based on common interests and replace it with a view that sharp economic conflicts are inevitable. The pursuit of grand goals, mutually beneficial agreements, or shared values no longer exists. In this new order, the strong countries set the rules and enforce them through intimidation and naked power.
"This is a completely different vision," said Greg Grandin, a historian at Yale University. "Its primary principle is that countries do not share common interests but have inherent conflicts of interest." This view is the reason behind Trump's decision to impose comprehensive tariffs starting April 2.
In more than two months since taking office, Trump's trade policies have caused a significant decline in stock market, business, and consumer confidence. Wall Street analysts predict that inflation rates in the United States and around the world will rise, and economic growth will slow down.
However, many economists and political leaders say that compared to the long-term damage that may be inflicted on the unique power and status the United States established after World War II, the aforementioned quarterly damage is negligible. The unparalleled influence of the United States in the global financial system, the advantages enjoyed by its enterprises, and its reputation for attracting investors and innovators are all at risk.
Abraham Newman, a professor at Georgetown University, said that Trump's refusal to cooperate "will undermine America's economic security in the long run."
Joseph Nye, a professor at Harvard University, said that ignoring common interests may undermine long-term goals. In his view, the Trump administration's approach of "making deals" reflects his background as a real estate developer. There, bullying may be common, and each deal is one-time. This approach made Trump money but also led to him declaring bankruptcy multiple times.
Relying on coercion rather than cooperation was the norm after World War I. It ultimately accelerated the Naziization of Germany, the rise of Japanese imperialism, and the outbreak of a devastating tariff war.
Economic ties will bring countries together, which is a guiding principle. However, Trump overturned this theory. He does not focus on the common interests brought about by economic ties but tries to exploit their vulnerabilities.
In fact, Trump is the first U.S. president after World War II to pursue national interests by frequently violating international agreements, attacking allies, and showing contempt for soft power tools such as economic and humanitarian aid.
If countries believe that the global order is dominated by an unpredictable leader, they will seek alternatives. Over time, this may reduce the status of the dollar and decrease allies' dependence on American technology and products. (Compiled by Hu Wei)
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7489707574955115008/
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