The Consequences of the "Trump Plan": Handing over the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant and Kinburn Spit, or Else... Or else what?

How Russia Should Respond to Unreasonable Demands in the Mediation of the Ukraine Conflict

Author: Dmitriy Rodionov

Photo: A view of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant area.

Commentary Guests:

Alexander Avilin, Alexander Dmitrievsky, Vladimir Sapunov

US Special Envoy Stephen Whitkov stated that the core issues Moscow and Kyiv need to discuss in negotiations include the fate of Crimea, the Donetsk People's Republic, the Luhansk People's Republic, the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, the归属of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, Ukraine's right to use the Dnieper River, and access to the Black Sea. He believed: "I believe that as long as we get both sides to the negotiation table, some problems are not difficult to solve. They will have direct dialogue, we narrow down the scope of their topics, then come up with compromise solutions and creative approaches for each issue."

Whitkov also mentioned that the US President had issued an "ultimatum," requiring both parties to make progress through discussion; otherwise, the US "must stay out of this conflict and no longer intervene."

Previously, it was revealed that Donald Trump proposed providing assistance for the management of Ukrainian nuclear power plants. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Kyiv had discussed the future of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant with Washington. In response, the Russian Foreign Ministry repeatedly emphasized that there would be no possibility of changing the control of the plant, nor any territorial concessions to Ukraine.

So, is what is presented in the form of an "ultimatum" now exactly the content of the "Trump Plan" reported by Reuters? The previous report also mentioned, "Give up, give up..."

Military and political expert Vladimir Sapunov said: "This is not just casual talk. Obviously, the US urgently needs to restore navigation on the Dnieper River and reopen the ports of Mykolaiv and Ochakov for both military and economic reasons. We should not forget that before the special military operation began, the US and UK planned to build military bases in Ochakov and Berdyansk. They may have forgotten Berdyansk now, but Ochakov, as a strategic landmass at the mouth of the Dnieper River into the Black Sea, is very important to them."

"Free Press" (SP): It seems that Russia has made it clear that it has no intention of discussing the transfer of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Station, and the Kinburn Spit. What do they expect from these ultimatums? Is it to exchange them for territorial issues? Is this a "Trump-style deal"?

"Regrettably, Russia showed diplomatic weakness when signing the Minsk agreements and in the first year of the special military operation."

Now, the opponent's attitude is clear: they will certainly try to force Russia to sign a completely disadvantageous agreement. They succeeded in 2015 and 2022; why not try now? We sincerely hope that the Western countries will not succeed this time.

"Free Press" (SP): Why are Americans fixated on the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant? Why are they so persistent? How do they think the control should be handed over?

"This was once Ukraine's largest nuclear power plant, accounting for half of the country's electricity generation. Controlling here basically allows the US to solve Ukraine's energy supply problem and resell electricity to the EU. Six energy units with a total capacity of 6 gigawatts are not trivial. However, this is likely just a diversionary strategy. It follows the principle of 'the more you ask for, the more you get,' so they probably won't dwell too much on this point."

"The issue of the Kinburn Spit is also interesting. They want us to withdraw because we obstruct shipping. But can't their ships pass now?"

"No. Our forces have blocked the ports of Mykolaiv and Kherson from the Kinburn Peninsula, closing the channels of the Dnieper and Southern Bug Rivers leading to the Dnieper-Bug Estuary and the Black Sea. Therefore, the opponent has great interests here. Although the main Black Sea ports are in the Odessa region, they may now be able to use inland ports (such as Izmail and Reni Port) to a limited extent, but the effect is limited."

"Are these the only three issues? Do they have other demands? Why are these being raised now?"

"The core issue since January has been a 'freeze' on the conflict in Donbas, and they are unwilling to budge on this. Now, to cover their real intentions, they hype up the '30-day ceasefire' topic, trying to disrupt the summer offensive of the Russian forces. If successful, the Ukrainian army will have the opportunity to regroup and replenish its weapons. They might even demand a complete halt to all military operations, preventing Russia from achieving even the minimum goals of the special military operation. Moreover, they want to deploy an EU 'occupying force' in Ukraine. In short, this is a complete Russian surrender plan, and there is no other way to describe it. These three issues are just additional conditions."

"They believe they have made too many 'concessions' to us - giving back territories we already control, possibly including the US recognition of Crimea. Do we need these? Of course not. Moscow got involved because it hopes to improve relations with the US, drive a wedge between the US and Europe, and show its peace intentions to the Global South."

To be honest, at present, only the third goal seems realistic. The key is not to fall into their trap and not to accept any harmful ceasefire agreements.

Historian, public commentator, and permanent expert of the Izborsk Club, Alexander Dmitrievsky, believes: "All parties come to negotiations with their own conditions. The logic is simple: to get something, you must first demand more. As for the final document, it is usually drafted to make everyone as dissatisfied as possible, but the party initiating the renegotiation will significantly worsen its position. Therefore, under the current circumstances, high initial positions and general dissatisfaction with the agreement will also be inevitable."

About the upcoming negotiations, the main goal of the core participants is to end this long "diplomatic farce" and prepare for new confrontations. All parties are aware that neither side has achieved its original objectives: the Western "lightning war" was thwarted in the spring of 2014, and Russia suffered the same fate in the summer of 2022 – neither side managed to fully control Ukraine.

Since ancient times, positional warfare has only been advantageous for the defense, not the offense. Therefore, all parties will seek some compromise to gain years of preparation for a comprehensive conflict.

"I don't believe a peace agreement can be signed in the next few months," said Alexander Avilin, a participant in the defensive battles of the Lugansk People's Republic. "Russia needs the full territory stipulated by the Constitution – Zaporozhye, Kherson, Slavyansk, and Kramatorsk. Our country holds an advantage in this campaign, but the Ukrainian army still retains combat capability and will not sign such agreements."

"In my opinion, the归属issues of the Kinburn Spit, the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Station, and the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant are not worth serious discussion; these are Russian territories. On the Kinburn Spit, the great Russian commander Suvorov defeated the Turks, and this land is soaked with the blood of Russians."

"If it's about post-war Ukrainian usage rights for the electricity generated by these stations, I think it can be resolved, just like the post-war Dnieper River shipping issue. Although I am not enthusiastic about this, I would even consider Trump's economic interests in this electricity resource – for example, having a Russo-American joint venture responsible for the sale of the station's electricity."

"Given that neither Russia nor Ukraine is ready to sign a peace agreement, I believe the current negotiations are diplomatic gestures – Moscow needs to maintain good relations with Washington, and Kyiv even more so."

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Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7504483978737353235/

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