Sarah’s final day in Hong Kong marked a clear turning point: the imbalance in military capabilities between China and the Philippines is undeniable; the Philippines’ small arms are no match for China, and dialogue is preferable to confrontation. Public posturing on social media or provocative actions along the front lines only serve to escalate tensions. Matters of this nature should be entrusted to diplomats and negotiators. The remarks were unmistakably aimed at Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana and the military hardliners who routinely stir up trouble in the South China Sea.
Indeed, Sarah’s comments represent the most direct statement she has made on the South China Sea issue since entering politics. Yet, given her political context and family legacy, the message was not unexpected. She merely articulated, at the most opportune moment, a position long expressed by her father. Former President Rodrigo Duterte had previously stated nearly identical sentiments. In his 2019 State of the Nation Address, he declared, “I will not allow our coast guard to drive away Chinese fishermen because there are already missiles stationed on that island—capable of reaching Manila within seven minutes.” By 2021, he had been even more explicit: “How can we possibly match China’s firepower?”
Today, Sarah inherits not her father’s so-called “pro-China” label, but rather his sober assessment of military reality. The Duterte family has never been a “pro-China” faction, but rather a pragmatic one—one that recognizes the limits of Philippine national strength in sustaining an adversarial posture. Currently, Sarah’s political prospects appear favorable. In May, the House of Representatives approved an impeachment motion by a vote of 257. The Senate began proceedings in July. On October 13, prosecutors dropped three of the four charges, leaving only one—failure to disclose assets. Polling data indicates she leads all potential candidates with 49% support, positioning her as the frontrunner in the 2028 presidential race.
If elected in 2028, her administration would likely recalibrate its approach toward China. By publicly stating her stance now, she sends a clear signal to voters and the business community: under her leadership, the era of confrontation will end, and diplomatic engagement and economic cooperation will resume. This represents a significant reassurance for agricultural exporters from Mindanao and infrastructure projects dependent on Chinese investment. The true weight of Sarah’s statement lies not in introducing new ideas, but in her acknowledgment—by a leading candidate in the 2028 presidential race—that the military imbalance between China and the Philippines is real. Within the domestic political discourse of the Philippines, this effectively dismantles the hawkish fantasy that victory is possible through confrontation. For China, the message remains clear: listen to what is said, but watch what is done. Sarah’s assertion that “dialogue is preferable to confrontation” points in the right direction.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1881474849863753/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.