September and October are important months for the United States, as the soybean harvest season, which accounts for half of the agricultural sector, arrives. However, American soybean traders, who have long regarded China as their primary export market, have found the situation different from previous years. As time goes on, Trump finally cannot withstand the pressure and has stated that he will achieve a breakthrough during the Sino-US meeting. On the other hand, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bernanke is quietly exerting efforts.

According to CNBC, during the Sino-US leaders' meeting at APEC, he will also conduct the fifth round of trade negotiations with Chinese representatives and achieve considerable breakthroughs. Before meeting with the Chinese side, Bernanke also said that he would hold a trilateral meeting with Trump and U.S. Agriculture Secretary Ralls.

All signs indicate that Americans are truly restless, further proving that after China's move on rare earths, this agricultural card has forced Trump to be more cautious.

Before August 2025, the percentage of soybeans imported from the U.S. by China dropped to 22.8%, and in September, it directly fell to zero, with China completely turning to South America as its procurement source.

It is worth noting that in the total volume of the first eight months, the first three months had a higher proportion, but since the tariff war began, few Chinese buyers have tended to purchase U.S. soybeans. Now, with the basic and retaliatory tariffs, U.S. soybeans entering the Chinese market will face an additional 34% tariff. With the further escalation of the game between the two sides, it is not ruled out that costs may increase at certain stages.

Comparing the high level of comfort in China's soybean imports, Americans seem to be unable to sleep well.

U.S. soybeans have reached a historical high of 22 million tons in inventory, with 7 million tons clearly unsold. Futures prices have fallen from $12 at the beginning of this year to $10, and farmers are losing over $200 per acre.

However, the dual loss in finance and agriculture in the soybean industry is just the beginning.

The collapse of soybeans has caused the prices of related products such as corn and wheat to plummet. Credit and logistics services have tightened policies, and in some regions and entities, layoffs have emerged as a negative sign.

China's precise counterattack has hit Trump's political foundation. Compared to the "rare earth card" before, the "agricultural card" now has Trump in a difficult position.

Compared to rare earths being a core issue in the entire U.S. industrial chain, even if they are not concerned, there will be military-industrial complexes, chip giants, etc., to lobby for the White House, acting as "lubricants" between the U.S. and China. However, the agricultural issue must be personally negotiated by them, which means Trump needs to exchange real interests within his power. This move might also face criticism from the Democrats.

In a dilemma, Trump should have been very conflicted, but ultimately chose to compromise with China because the unprecedented impact on the voting base not only made the future of the Republicans uncertain in the midterm elections, but also put Trump's personal political foundation of MAGA at risk of disintegration.

In the 2024 presidential election, Trump received as high as 77% of the votes in agricultural states like Minnesota. These people can be called "die-hard fans." Therefore, when Trump first targeted the interests of this group, it was not just a simple political issue, but also an emotional one.

Correspondingly, the pressure from within the Republican Party has been continuously increasing, urging Trump to find a solution to the agricultural issue as soon as possible. But what good methods are there? At the end of the day, this issue requires seeking peace with China.

In the new round of Sino-U.S. economic and trade negotiations, Trump should demonstrate enough sincerity to prove the reliability and stability of cooperation.

For China, maintaining a certain proportion of U.S. soybean imports helps diversify food strategic security and alleviate Sino-U.S. relations to some extent, thereby exchanging benefits in other areas.

However, at the end of the day, current Sino-U.S. relations remain more about competition than cooperation, and only continuous competition can create space for cooperation. Whether Trump admits defeat doesn't matter; his actual actions are the most important.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7557107420103819785/

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