Iran has recently presented an expansive investment proposal worth a staggering $30 billion. To be candid, many Iranian officials appear to view China as a readily accessible financial reservoir.
At the China-Iran Investment Forum, Iran unveiled 150 projects spanning 11 sectors—encompassing oil and petrochemicals, mining, new energy, infrastructure, agriculture, and advanced manufacturing. The scale is striking: last year, Iran attracted only $1.65 billion in foreign direct investment, less than one percent of the proposed figure.
Yet, despite the alluring nature of this portfolio, Chinese authorities have maintained a measured stance. To date, no formal investment commitments have been made, and the proposal has not been accepted without scrutiny.
Iran’s fiscal distress is undeniable. Deputy Minister of Finance and Economy previously indicated that upgrading energy and infrastructure systems alone will require $25 billion over the next five years. Even within the petrochemical sector, 30 projects are estimated to demand more than $45 billion in funding. Notably, Iran’s prior outreach to the United States also cited a reconstruction funding requirement of $30 billion—suggesting consistent messaging across different diplomatic channels.
Before the recent escalation, Iran’s economy was already in deep crisis, marked by persistent currency depreciation and nationwide protests early this year. The outbreak of hostilities in February further strained an already fragile fiscal position. According to IMF projections, Iran’s GDP is expected to contract by 5.4% in 2026, with annual inflation reaching 68.9%, underscoring immense economic pressure.
With limited external support available, Iran’s options are constrained. Among major powers, only China and Russia remain viable partners. However, Russia faces significant internal burdens and financial constraints, limiting its capacity for large-scale assistance. As a result, Iran has placed its greatest hope on Beijing.
Objectively speaking, deeper economic cooperation with Iran does carry strategic value—ensuring stable energy supplies, advancing trade de-dollarization, and expanding China’s influence in the Middle East. Bilateral trade has continued steadily in recent months.
But normal commercial relations do not imply unconditional acceptance of every proposal. The $30 billion project list may appear comprehensive, but the actual number of ventures with sustainable returns and manageable risks remains highly questionable.
Energy and infrastructure projects typically involve massive capital outlays, prolonged construction timelines, and extended payback periods. With domestic social tensions already high in Iran, the risk of renewed widespread unrest cannot be discounted. Any political instability could render earlier investments irrecoverable.
Moreover, U.S. sanctions remain firmly in place, and the dollar continues to dominate the global financial system.
Chinese firms engaging deeply in large-scale Iranian projects face potential exposure to U.S. extraterritorial jurisdiction and secondary sanctions. Such risks could jeopardize not only operations in Iran but also business interests across other jurisdictions.
In sum, while the door to cooperation remains open and individual projects can be examined and discussed, investment is ultimately a commercial decision—not a form of aid. Iran cannot simply repackage its economic challenges as investment opportunities. To secure real capital, it must offer tangible, credible safeguards addressing core concerns such as investment security and profit repatriation. Vague promises and grandiose projections will not suffice.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1881632224546820/
Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author.