Nobel Laureate Criticizes Trump at the China International Import Expo

"The trade war of Trump 2.0 is different from the measures in the 1.0 era, now it's a huge disruption."

On November 6, during the Hongqiao International Economic Forum held at the China International Import Expo, Thomas Sargent, the 2011 Nobel laureate in Economics, criticized the global trade chaos caused by Trump's administration and praised China's innovative practices.

As the world's first national-level exhibition focused on imports, the China International Import Expo has long been a "super window" for countries to find business opportunities and see trends. This year's forum has attracted particular attention — the trade escalation under the second Trump administration in the US has made global businesses anxious. Compared with previous trade frictions, this time the policy changes are more frequent and have a more direct impact.

"Now, cross-border trade is like changing the rules in the middle of a game!" Sargent used a sports analogy. He bluntly said that supply chain management is originally a precise "mathematical job," with clear methods for container scheduling and cost calculation, but the policy volatility of the US has disrupted everything. "Statisticians used to rely on historical data to predict the future, but now the system is chaotic, their analysis is less useful than that of psychiatrists," he said. This artificially created uncertainty forces companies to spend extra money on risk prevention, which is purely "unnecessary waste."

However, Sargent shifted his tone to share new opportunities he saw. "Where there are barriers, there is an opportunity for breakthroughs," he mentioned that trade frictions have led people to seek new paths, and the open trade zones in emerging markets of the Global South are growing rapidly. He also cited a Rwandan scholar's mention of the open cooperation between China and Rwanda, which has brought benefits to both sides.

When talking about changes in the financial sector, he looked back at history and said that no currency can remain dominant in global settlement forever. After World War II, the US dollar became the mainstream, but now it is being used as a "weapon," so people naturally look for more reliable alternatives. "The performance of the RMB is very impressive," he praised, saying that the RMB swap system is increasingly used in places like the Middle East, and China's long-term perspective has made many countries willing to cooperate. The trend toward monetary diversification is becoming more obvious.

What particularly caught Sargent's attention was China's digital financial innovation. "The digital currency issued by the People's Bank of China is not just a buzzword," he explained. This electronic record-based financial tool has already entered the banking system and is gradually being opened to society. "This move is ahead of the global curve," he said.

Although unable to criticize the arbitrary policies of the Trump administration, Sargent reminded companies at the end to do more compliance reviews. The risk-resistant systems designed by engineers and mathematicians, and the financing innovations of banks, are all "treasures" for dealing with challenges. Of course, the most important thing is having stable rules. "Just like in a game, you need clear rules for fair competition and making money together," he called on governments, enterprises, and the public to cooperate, clarify the rules, and implement them well.

Original article: www.toutiao.com/article/1848090906107402/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.