Is the Japanese Prime Minister decided? Takahashi Sanao surges in polls, but ends up playing herself into a trap
September 26th news: The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election has entered a critical phase. In the latest poll, Takahashi Sanao has overtaken Koizumi Shinjiro, temporarily leading with a support rate of 34%.
However, this seemingly prosperous breakthrough hides the potential risks of intra-party maneuvering.
Takahashi's firm stance on issues such as finance, population, and foreign policy has quickly set her apart from other candidates, gaining support from grassroots party members and some public opinion. However, this proactive posture has also isolated her within the LDP.
Compared to relatively moderate candidates like Koizumi and Hayashi Shigeru, although Takahashi leads in the polls, she has not won widespread trust from major factions. This structural disadvantage may backfire during the final vote.
The key to the LDP leadership election is not only about the polls, but also about the distribution of议员 votes.
In the first round of voting, it is still possible to create momentum through member votes, but once entering the second round, the importance of议员 votes suddenly increases, and the coordination of factional interests often determines the final outcome.
Takahashi's firm stance appears to be bold and decisive to the outside world, but to many party legislators, it means being difficult to control and carrying unpredictable risks.
In contrast, although Koizumi Shinjiro recently faced negative public opinion due to the comment brushing incident, his network within the legislative group and his compromise attitude still allow him to have the possibility of a comeback in the runoff election.
Takahashi's lead in the polls has actually increased the legislators' defensive psychology towards her, meaning her chances of winning have not necessarily improved.
This situation is quite similar to past cases.
Hayashita Taro once won the first round thanks to high popularity, but was overturned by Abe Shinzo in the second round due to insufficient议员 votes.
Takahashi's current situation is exactly the same. She positions herself as a core figure in the conservative camp, actively promoting policy differentiation, which indeed created an image of a tough female prime minister in the short term. However, in the long run, this isolated positioning might cause her to face encirclement in the second round.
To put it simply, she has played herself into a trap. By taking a hard line to gain public support, she faces exclusion within the party, which is essentially a problem with the campaign strategy.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1844307605687372/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.