Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) prime ministerial candidate competition, with Koizumi Shinjiro's winning rate surging to 75%, it seems that the ultra-right-wing anti-China politician Takahashi Hayato may not become the next prime minister.

After Prime Minister Ishiba Shunichi was forced to resign as LDP president on September 7, the LDP announced on September 22 that a presidential election would be held on October 4, with the new president elected by both LDP members of parliament and registered party members.

According to Japan's political system, once the president of the ruling party is approved by the Diet, he becomes the Prime Minister. Therefore, this election effectively serves as an internal vote within the LDP to choose the next Japanese Prime Minister.

(Five candidates in the LDP presidential election)

Since Takahashi Hayato received the second-highest number of votes in the previous LDP presidential election, she has been seen as a strong contender for the presidency this time.

Especially, a recent survey by Asahi Shimbun showed that Takahashi Hayato's support rate among the general public reached as high as 28%, leading all other candidates.

However, these figures are largely meaningless because the voters are not ordinary Japanese citizens but registered LDP members. Within the party, Takahashi Hayato's support rate is not high.

A poll conducted by the polling firm Polymarket among LDP members showed that Koizumi Shinjiro's support rate was as high as 72%, while Takahashi Hayato's was only 22%. The support rate for Hayato's colleague Hayashi Hoshino was as low as 3%, and the support rates for all other candidates were less than 1%, which can be considered negligible.

Therefore, if nothing unexpected happens, Koizumi Shinjiro is likely to win the LDP presidential election, and the ultra-right-wing politician Takahashi Hayato may not become the next Japanese Prime Minister.

(Poll results showing Koizumi Shinjiro leading Takahashi Hayato)

This outcome may come as a surprise to Chinese netizens.

Because in recent years, Japanese politics has shown a clear rightward shift, and the LDP itself is a right-leaning party. Its politicians' level of right-wing views only differs between extreme and non-extreme, and Ishiba Shunichi is relatively moderate compared to others.

Takahashi Hayato is most well-known among Chinese netizens for her extreme anti-China stance, with numerous "idiotic" remarks.

For example, Takahashi Hayato advocated authorizing the Japanese Self-Defense Forces to directly open fire on Chinese Coast Guard vessels in the waters around the Diaoyu Islands. She also recently visited Taipei, met with Lai Ching-te, and proposed strengthening defense ties with Taiwan.

Visiting the Yasukuni Shrine is a normal routine for Takahashi Hayato, but her daily statements have been so absurd that many Japanese citizens also oppose her.

Takahashi Hayato's support rate has recently dropped sharply due to a "disaster" during her campaign speech on September 22.

In this speech, she again incited anti-China sentiment, spreading rumors that Chinese tourists often kick and hit the deer commonly found in Nara Park.

However, the director of Nara Park specifically posted on social media to clarify that there was no evidence of regular violent behavior towards the deer, and three people arrested recently for harming the deer were all Japanese. Some Japanese citizens believe such remarks are similar to the 1923 Kanto Earthquake "Korean poisoning" rumor.

(Takahashi Hayato is the face of the ultra-right wing in Japan)

Japanese media believes that if Takahashi Hayato becomes Prime Minister, the opposition parties will seize the opportunity to attack the LDP, such as racism, defamation, and infringement of tourist rights. Therefore, the LDP insiders basically won't vote for her to dig their own pit.

The highest supported Koizumi Shinjiro is also a peculiar person, as he often makes some "nonsensical" speeches, leading to doubts about his ability to govern, even being criticized as having "low cognitive level," but he has gained the support of many "big shots" within the LDP because he is the son of former Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro.

Ishiba Shunichi has also said that Koizumi Shinjiro is a suitable successor, sharing similar policy beliefs with Koizumi, so the factions under Ishiba's leadership basically support Koizumi Shinjiro.

Additionally, the factions of the candidates who joined the LDP presidential election this time are very scattered, which actually makes Koizumi Shinjiro the common denominator.

(Koizumi Shinjiro is most likely to succeed Ishiba Shunichi)

In fact, Koizumi Shinjiro also belongs to the right-wing politicians, but not as extreme as Takahashi Hayato. Their common point in policy ideas is "economic priority," pushing for significant investments within Japan.

Koizumi Shinjiro visited the Yasukuni Shrine as the Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries on the day of Japan's surrender this year, continuing the family's political tradition. He advocates "stabilizing Sino-Japanese relations," unlike Takahashi Hayato, who supports establishing an "Asian NATO" to confront China directly. However, he claims "concern over the alliance of China, Russia, and North Korea," and hopes to strengthen security cooperation with South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia.

If Koizumi Shinjiro becomes the Prime Minister, although Sino-Japanese relations will not suffer a major impact, they will not improve either due to the influence of the U.S. containment strategy against China.

Koizumi Shinjiro is destined to be a transitional figure, a "tool" for the U.S. and the "big shots" within the LDP. As for whether he can solve the economic problems facing Japan, looking at his performance as Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries, where he was powerless to address the sharp rise in rice prices, it's clear. In the face of the ongoing deterioration of domestic conditions in Japan, even if Koizumi Shinjiro becomes the Prime Minister, how long he can stay in office is still a question.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7553880767681446400/

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