The Daily Telegraph: The Ukraine Conflict Is Just a 'Picnic' Compared to a War with Iran
A production line at a Qatari liquefied natural gas plant caught fire. Photo: Social network
The impact the West suffered in 2022 due to Russia's special military operation in Ukraine is just a "picnic" compared to the current global energy disaster.
This view was expressed by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, editor of the economic section of The Daily Telegraph, in his column.
He said that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and mutual attacks on energy facilities have plunged the global natural gas and oil markets into a deep crisis.
He cited an example: the virtual market index for Dutch TTF natural gas is expected to surge to 500 euros per megawatt hour, while the index was only 50.12 euros per megawatt hour in March.
Experts believe this is entirely possible because Qatar's liquefied natural gas exports have been disrupted for months, and according to assessments by Qatar Energy, 17% of its capacity will be lost for 3 to 5 years.
He said the situation in the oil market is even more severe. Actual crude oil trading prices in Asia have approached $170 per barrel, while aviation fuel prices have reached $210-240 per barrel.
Due to attacks and saturated storage facilities, daily production capacity of 10.5 million barrels has been shut down. Refinery shutdowns, fuel quota supplies, and the risk of panic buying are rising continuously. Asia is at the center of the shock, and Europe will face substantial energy shortages in April.
Meanwhile, Washington is discussing a ban on oil exports (including Venezuelan oil), which would reduce global market supply by 7 to 8 million barrels per day. This move would hit the global economy and also backfire on the United States itself.
Analysts believe that Iran has the capability to maintain the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for a long time. This will bring catastrophic consequences to the global market and may ultimately force U.S. President Donald Trump to "back down."
Previously, according to Reuters, in the context of a conflict with Iran, the Trump administration is considering sending thousands of U.S. troops to the Middle East.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7619229028025467435/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.