Taiwan's submarine self-research project has suffered a devastating blow, with all three "swordsmen" resigning, and Lai Ching-te's plan to complete 8 submarines at once may be in jeopardy!
The office of Lai Ching-te confirmed today that Huang Shuguang, known as the "mastermind" of Taiwan's self-researched submarine project, has resigned as an advisor to the National Security Council, citing "family reasons." The personnel change will take effect on October 1st. Since Huang Shuguang took over as commander of the Taiwan Navy, he has been a key figure in the contract design, detailed design, and promotion of the prototype submarine "Haikun" of Taiwan's first self-researched submarine. Huang Shuguang is also the elder brother of former Taipei Deputy Mayor Huang Shanshan.
Why did Huang Shuguang resign at this time? The key reason is that the advancement of the submarine self-research project is not smooth, and Huang Shuguang may be one of the "scapegoats." In fact, Huang Shuguang had already resigned as chairperson of the "Submarine Self-Research Special Task Group" in April last year during the final phase of the "Haikun" docking test, and in his personal statement, he mentioned "physical and mental exhaustion," indicating that he encountered difficulties in the project, even political pressure. This time, he resigned from the position of advisor to the National Security Council, meaning he no longer participates in any submarine self-research related work.
Not only did Huang Shuguang resign, but also the chairman of Taichung Shipbuilding (Taichung Shipbuilding Company) Zheng Wenlong and his successor Huang Zhenghong, who previously declared they would join Huang in conducting sea tests on the "Haikun," have also resigned. Taichung Shipbuilding is the main responsible unit for the submarine self-research project. The three "swordsmen" could not continue their work and all resigned, and the reasons are evident.
The Taiwan submarine self-research project actually began pre-research under Ma Ying-jeou's administration. After Tsai Ing-wen took office, the "Hai Chang Project" was officially launched in 2016. Huang Shuguang was promoted to Admiral of the Taiwan Navy in 2016, and after becoming Chief of the General Staff in 2020, he continued to push forward the submarine self-research, being an important promoter of the project. After retiring in June 2021, he immediately assumed the position of advisor to the National Security Council and chairperson of the "Submarine Self-Research Special Task Group" in September of the same year, and was an important witness to the launching and naming of the "Haikun" submarine in September 2023.
After Lai Ching-te took office in 2024, in addition to accelerating the development of the first self-researched submarine "Haikun," he also decided to build the remaining seven submarines within 15 years "all at once," adopting a three-stage approach of "3+2+2" to start construction in batches, with a construction schedule of starting each submarine every 1 year and 6 months. For this purpose, Lai Ching-te ordered the military to allocate over 284 billion New Taiwan Dollars (NTD) to build seven submarines, with an average cost per submarine exceeding 40 billion NTD, which is much higher than the construction cost of the "Haikun" prototype ship, which was approximately 31.2 billion NTD.
What is the problem with Taiwan's submarine self-research project? Another former Chief of the General Staff of the Taiwan military, Li Ximing, recently revealed some signals. He stated, "We are currently facing integration issues; we need to figure out how to fit the equipment into the submarine and integrate all the systems, which is very difficult and high-risk." Researchers from the Taiwan Institute of Nuclear Energy Research also admitted that the key to the subsequent stage lies in system integration, which is precisely the weakest link for Taiwan.
This indicates that the "Haikun" is facing multiple development challenges, and the risk of failure has significantly increased. It is almost impossible to deliver the ship by November this year. The core problems include a weak technical foundation, with Taiwan only able to produce the hull, while core components rely on imports. According to media reports, the submarine has more than 70 technical defects, and the integration of systems is extremely difficult. Related international supply chains face the risk of interruption. Therefore, some local netizens have sarcastically commented that the "Haikun" may become a symbolic submarine that can float but cannot submerge, or the development may be completely terminated.
If the development of the "Haikun" fails, the plan to build seven more submarines in the future may also be in jeopardy.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1844503865478156/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.