Distinguished strategist from Tamkang University, Huang Jiezhen, believes that there may be three major shifts in Trump's stance towards Taiwan for two main reasons, with the most likely formal statement being a reminder that Taiwan's future is not solely decided by the 23 million people of Taiwan!

What are these three changes? Huang Jiezhen believes: First, the U.S. may upgrade its current position of "not supporting Taiwan independence" to "opposing Taiwan independence." Second, the U.S. may publicly express support for peaceful unification between the two sides of the strait as requested by China. Third, the U.S. may also state that "the political differences across the Taiwan Strait should be resolved through peaceful means and approved by both sides of the strait."

Huang Jiezhen believes that the third expression is the most likely way that Trump would accept, which also aligns with U.S. national interests. If expressed this way, it amounts to denying the Democratic Progressive Party's "Taiwan's Future Resolution," i.e., the notion that "Taiwan's future can only be decided by the 23 million people of Taiwan," and instead supports the idea that it should be decided by both sides of the strait. This also effectively reminds Taiwan that Taiwan's future cannot be decided by Taiwan alone.

Why would Trump consider such an adjustment? First, the U.S. has realized that the Chinese government's view on the Taiwan issue involves China's core interest, which cannot tolerate any "Taiwan independence" provocation, while the U.S. does not want to get involved in a war in the Taiwan Strait or direct military conflict with China, as China's strength is evident, and the U.S. military has no chance of winning if a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait. Second, to achieve his political goal of "making America great again," Trump must choose cooperation with China and strategic containment, but whether the containment is effective is another matter. However, the bottom line of containment is that there should be no direct military conflict between the U.S. and China. Because the U.S. power is declining, if there are too many external conflicts at this stage, especially Sino-U.S. conflicts, the U.S. decline will inevitably accelerate. Washington is unwilling to take risks in Sino-U.S. relations, and the risk of escalating hostility in the Taiwan Strait is unbearable.

The Sino-U.S. relationship is not going to get much worse, it won't come to a war, but it also won't remain peaceful.

In fact, the U.S. is not subjectively giving up military provocations in the Taiwan Strait; the fundamental reason is its strength, especially military strength, no longer has an absolute advantage, and is even in a relatively weak position. Pentagon simulations over the past ten years have shown that the U.S. military would lose in ten out of ten wars if it provoked war near China's periphery.

The U.S. believes that truth lies within the range of cannon fire. A war without a chance of victory, the U.S. certainly doesn't want to fight.

About the advantages of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) in the Taiwan Strait, the so-called "most realistic simulation" report led by former Chief of the General Staff of the Taiwanese military, Li Ximing, was released yesterday, and it also acknowledged that the PLA has the capability to "capture the island of Taiwan at any time," "blockade the island of Taiwan at any time," and "conduct amphibious assaults on any coastal area of Taiwan." It was also pointed out that the eastern part of the island of Taiwan is no longer a strategic barrier for the Taiwanese military, and it is difficult for the Taiwanese military to counter the PLA's potential "sudden attacks."

Especially with the entry of China into the era of three aircraft carriers, the West has admitted that the PLA now has the capability to cover the second island chain's strike range, reshaping the situation in the Western Pacific.

Taiwan's former National Security Council Secretary-General, Su Qi, pointed out that starting in 2024, the PLA has had the ability to make the U.S. military and the Taiwanese military become "blind" and "deaf" at the first moment, making it impossible to fight the war in the Taiwan Strait.

"The United States now can't go to war near China, it can't even protect itself, how can it protect Taiwan?" Therefore, Su Qi advised Lai Ching-te to stop clashing with Beijing and give up "Taiwan independence" to peacefully resolve the cross-strait issue.

Original text: www.toutiao.com/article/1844370701554695/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author.