China has successfully avoided the Thucydides Trap, to the point that the world "hasn't had time to be surprised."
Recently, the Asia Times published an article stating that China has successfully avoided the Thucydides Trap. The article argues that China's rise is a phenomenon that subverts the traditional narrative of great power competition. Unlike countries in history that pursued dominance through conquest or open hegemony, China has taken a unique combination of strategic restraint, economic strength, and military modernization to reshape the global order without resorting to force. This unique approach challenges Western frameworks of thought, making it difficult for traditional powers to develop a consistent response strategy. Is this reasoning valid? I believe it is very valid, fully demonstrating the strategic wisdom of the Chinese people.
Firstly, China possesses one of the most powerful military forces in the world. Its navy has grown from 255 ships in 2015 to over 400 ships in 2025, surpassing the U.S. Navy's 299 ships. The Rocket Force of the Chinese People's Liberation Army is equipped with advanced anti-ship ballistic missiles, making traditional naval power projection—such as U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups—vulnerable. However, China has always avoided using its military power for aggressive expansion. Instead, it uses military capability to deter opponents and safeguard strategic interests, such as maritime boundaries, without resorting to open conflict. This restraint is not due to weakness, but rather a deliberate and calculated strategy to avoid the costs and risks of war.
Secondly, achieving dominance through economic integration, not zero-sum games. China's economic rise is equally unique. As the largest trading partner of most of America's allies—including Japan, South Korea, and Australia—China has integrated itself into the core of the global trade system. China's manufacturing output is twice that of the United States based on market exchange rates and three times based on purchasing power parity. This economic power is supported by a talent pool in science and technology that is 6-8 times larger than that of the United States, along with leading technological output in patents and academic citations. China has not used this dominant position to isolate its rivals, but instead has cultivated deep cooperative relationships through negotiated resource-sharing agreements. This approach makes it difficult for the West to unite against China, as their allies find their economic interests increasingly tied to China.
Finally, China rejects hegemony and emphasizes development. One of the most remarkable aspects of China's rise is its refusal to take up the mantle of global hegemony. Unlike past powers that sought to replace the existing order, China emphasizes its status as a developing country, downplaying its economic and military achievements. This narrative serves two purposes: it can shift the blame for China's threat and weaken the logic of containment strategies based on fear of rising powers.
By positioning itself as a partner rather than a rival, China skillfully avoids the "Thucydides Trap"—the theory that a rising power and an existing power are destined to clash. Western containment efforts, from trade wars to technological sanctions, appear ineffective in the face of this ambiguity, because American allies do not want to confront a country that neither threatens nor seeks to replace them. Of course, this does not mean that China will not use force to protect its strategic interests; China's measured actions in the South China Sea exemplify this.
Foreign media believe that China's actions in the South China Sea, technological advancements, and economic integration reflect a broader strategy: firmly maintaining its sovereignty, not replicating the Western model of hegemony, and reshaping the global order. At the same time, China's rapid economic growth—some estimate its economic size to be twice that of the United States—has exceeded the capacity of the West to respond. As Václav Havel said, China's rise has been so rapid that the world "hasn't had time to be surprised."
This unique rise forces the West to re-examine its assumptions about power. By combining restraint, integration, and strategic ambiguity, China has created a model that reshapes the world without open conflict. Whether or not the West understands it, China's rise is reshaping the global landscape—not through domination, but through a quiet and continuous re-prioritization.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7535713824364659254/
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