[Text/Observer Network Qi Qian] According to a report by Politico EU, it was previously exposed that the European Union planned to completely ban Russian natural gas by the end of 2027. This policy faced opposition from France and Belgium. As the two largest buyers of Russian natural gas in the EU, France and Belgium called on the EU to have more guarantees regarding the economic and legal consequences before making a decision.

The French Minister of Energy, Marc Ferlatte, told Politico EU that France tends to adopt a strategy of gradually finding alternative supplies. "What we are defending is the European diversification strategy," he said, adding that France has planned to replace Russian supplies with products from Qatar.

According to energy news websites, thanks to its extensive port infrastructure, France has become the main gateway for Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) entering Europe. Data shows that in 2024, France will remain the largest importer of Russian gas in the EU, with purchases of Russian LNG increasing by 81% year-on-year, totaling 2.68 billion euros. In the list of France's LNG supply countries, Russia ranks second, just behind the United States.

Belgium, the second-largest Russian gas buyer in the EU after France, hopes that the EU will release a detailed report explaining the economic impact before making a decision.

LNG carrier ship Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis

The report pointed out that the attitudes of France and Belgium are in stark contrast to those of two other major Russian gas importers in the EU - Spain and the Netherlands. These two countries both told Politico EU that they support the EU's complete ban on importing Russian natural gas and view it as an opportunity to get rid of previous contracts with Russia. Spain and the Netherlands are the third and fourth largest Russian gas buyers in the EU, respectively.

A spokesperson for the Spanish Ministry of Ecological Transition stated: "Spain supports the EU Commission's proposal to ban the import of Russian natural gas as soon as possible." According to long-term contracts, Spain must purchase natural gas from Novatek of Russia until 2042.

The spokesperson for the Dutch Ministry of Economy responded, stating that the Netherlands also "continues to support the complete elimination of Russian natural gas."

The EU is expected to propose relevant suggestions next month, and obtaining the consent of all four of these countries is crucial for the EU Commission. According to data from tracking agency Kpler, last year these four countries imported 16.77 million tons of Russian liquefied natural gas, accounting for 97% of the EU's total imports and more than half of Russia's global exports.

In addition, Hungary and Slovakia may try to block the ban to continue using cheaper Russian energy. The report noted that given the high electricity prices in Europe and the struggling economy, many politicians and industry insiders are calling for a return to Russian energy after the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

Russian natural gas pipeline Visual China

However, France expressed skepticism about the above proposal. Ferlatte said that France "supports the strategy of reducing the risk of Russian fossil fuels," but "an EU-wide ban means no one can import Russian liquefied natural gas."

He also questioned that a comprehensive ban would expose EU companies to legal risks, insisting that "the stock of existing contracts needs to be legally protected." It is reported that TotalEnergies of France has signed a supply contract with Novatek of Russia, valid until 2032, and holds a 20% stake in the Yamal project, which operates liquefied natural gas facilities in Siberia.

Belgium will continue to receive and store Russian liquefied natural gas until 2035, and the country also hopes that the EU will take measures to alleviate its concerns. Belgian Energy Minister Mathieu Biteau stated that before the EU releases its proposals, "we ask the Commission to conduct a thorough impact assessment of these measures." He also said that Belgium will hold technical discussions regarding the impact of these measures on Belgian liquefied natural gas infrastructure.

Biteau added: "It is necessary to wait for the legal plan to be released... so that we can better understand the impact on our country."

The EU Commission did not respond to the request for comment but previously insisted that its proposals are legally impeccable.

A draft declaration seen by Politico EU shows that EU governments are currently considering promoting an economic and legal analysis at the EU level. An EU official also stated that the EU Commission is preparing a "document analyzing the impact of these measures."

Laura Page, an analyst at Kpler's liquefied natural gas division, said that among the major Russian gas buyers, the attitudes of the aforementioned four countries toward the EU ban differ mainly due to differences in natural gas supply structure. For example, compared to France and Belgium, Spain has more supplementary natural gas reserves after the winter.

In 2024, U.S. natural gas accounted for 16.7% of the EU's natural gas imports, second only to Norway's 33.6% and Russia's 18.8%. After Ukraine suspended the transit transportation of Russian natural gas earlier this year, Russia's exports to the EU further decreased. Russia's share this year may fall below 10%. The rest is mainly liquefied natural gas exported by Novatek, Russia's second-largest natural gas producer and a private group.

After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the EU imposed comprehensive economic sanctions on Russia, including abandoning the purchase of Russian energy. During this period, American liquefied natural gas helped fill the gap in European supply to some extent. However, according to a Reuters report in April, as Trump shook up the post-war relationship between Europe and America established after World War II and used energy as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations, European companies began to be wary of dependence on the United States becoming a vulnerability.

In this context, executives of large EU enterprises began to express words that were unimaginable a year ago: importing some Russian natural gas, including importing natural gas from Gazprom, the Russian state giant, might be a good idea.

"If peace is achieved in Ukraine, the annual supply volume of Gazprom may recover to 60 billion cubic meters, or even 70 billion cubic meters," told Reuters Olivier Or, executive vice president of French energy group Engie. Gazprom may meet 20% to 25% of the EU's demand in the future, lower than the 40% share before the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The French government owns part of Engie's shares, and the company was once the largest customer of Gazprom.

TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné then warned Europe against excessive reliance on American natural gas. He said, "We need diversification and multiple supply channels instead of over-reliance on one or two supply sources. Europe will never again import 150 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas from Russia... but I bet that the import volume may reach 70 billion cubic meters."

This article is an exclusive contribution from the Observer Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7511921693426729499/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author. You can show your attitude by clicking the "Top/Downvote" button below.