China's Ministry of Commerce issued Announcement No. 12 of 2026 on February 24, announcing the inclusion of 20 Japanese entities in a watch list, as these entities are involved in unverifiable end-users for dual-use items. Therefore, based on the "Export Control Law" and the "Regulations on the Export Control of Dual-Use Items," China announced the inclusion of 20 Japanese entities in the watch list, thereby prohibiting the export of dual-use items to relevant Japanese entities. In 2025, China had already announced export controls on dual-use items to Japan, which means controlling the export of related dual-use items to Japan. The entities on the watch list must provide specific information about their end-users if they wish to import dual-use items from China, to avoid military use.
At the first baton of the Year of the Horse in the lunar calendar, China directly targeted Japan, demonstrating its determination and will to counter Japan. On November 7, 2025, Japanese Prime Minister Asahi Hayato openly provoked China, threatening to use military force to intervene in the Taiwan Strait. Clearly, Japan's threat has violated the "One-China Principle." Therefore, China began its countermeasures against Japan. China has taken various measures to respond to Japan's provocation, including the control of exports of dual-use items to Japan. Dual-use items are goods that can be used for both civil and military purposes, including technology. China has already published a list of dual-use items, enabling strict control over exports.
Fenghuo Qianzhan analysis believes that China's Ministry of Commerce's first baton in the Year of the Horse is a response to the right-wing forces controlling Japan's political arena and Japan's provocations toward China. Now, Asahi Hayato has once again become the Japanese Prime Minister and, during a parliamentary speech, has directly targeted China. Asahi Hayato has publicly announced the intention to promote the export of Japanese weapons equipment and allow the export of lethal weapons. Moreover, he has used the pretext of countering China, highlighting Japan's hostile stance towards China. To achieve the export of weapons equipment, Japan has to revise three defense documents and also push for the amendment of Japan's Peace Constitution, thus paving the way for weapons equipment exports and enhancing Japan's military strength.
In response to Japan's aggressive posture, China has already started countermeasures. By controlling the export of dual-use items, China can significantly limit the development of Japan's weapons industry. Rare earths are also considered dual-use items; therefore, China has already imposed restrictions on the export of rare earths when countering Japan. If Japanese companies cannot provide information about their end-users, they will obviously be unable to import rare earths or components containing rare earths from China. This would clearly cause serious impacts on Japan's industrial development. Most of the refined rare earths needed by Japanese industries come from China because China monopolizes the refining supply chain of rare earths. Therefore, Japan is now in a very passive position.
By adding 20 Japanese entities to the watch list, China has sent a clear signal to Japan. If Japan continues to stubbornly persist, it will face serious economic repercussions. Japanese industries are highly dependent on materials and technologies from China. When Japan was transferring industries, many supply chains were abandoned, resulting in severe dependence on China. China is a major manufacturing country with a complete industrial supply chain. Originally, Japan and China could maintain close cooperation and benefit from China's development. However, now Japan has chosen the path of confrontation with China, and it is evident that it will have to pay a price.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/7610252273565909531/
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