[Military and Weapons Section] Author: Lele

The other day, everyone was speculating whether Y-20 could transport HQ-9 to Egypt for military exercises. Later, it turned out to be only logistical support equipment and personnel, which left some people a bit disappointed. But these days, Egyptian media has reported that the Egyptian army "has already procured HQ-9BE," with quite a few corroborations.

▲The U.S. "Military Observation" website also reported this story.

On the 17th, two days after the Y-20 fleet arrived in Egypt, the "Arab Defense" website released a message, stating that retired Major General Flag mentioned in an interview that "HQ-9BE has been procured, with performance similar to Russia's S-400." On the 21st, the U.S. "Military Observation" website also reported this news, indicating that "HQ-9E can be compatible with J-10CE for joint operations," which is very interesting. One little-known fact is that so far, Egypt does not have a truly modern long-range air defense system; its closest label to this is the S-300VM purchased from Russia a decade ago.

▲Track-based chassis is a typical feature of the S-300V series.

However, this track-based structure, designed with ballistic missile defense as the core, is expensive. Egypt spent $1 billion at that time but didn't get much. Additionally, the S-300VM is a simple upgrade of the Soviet S-300V by Russia, with limited radar and electronic equipment performance, and its actual combat capability is not outstanding. Although there has always been speculation in the circle that Egypt bought "Patriot" in earlier years, such a transaction actually never happened. Since the U.S. wouldn't even provide AIM-120C, it certainly couldn't sell Egypt, which has greater strategic significance, the "Patriot." In fact, after receiving the S-300VM, Egypt once showed interest in the S-400. If the Su-35SE deal had gone through, then the S-400 would likely have entered Egypt as well.

▲The U.S. did not want to sell the "Patriot" to Egypt.

Since the "Patriot" couldn't be bought, and the S-400 was out of reach, Egypt turned its attention to Europe. At the end of 2021, Egypt selected the German IRIS-T air defense system, purchasing 23 sets at once, including 10 long-range models (maximum range 80 kilometers), 7 standard models (maximum range 40 kilometers), and 6 short-range models (maximum range 12 kilometers). However, the following year, Germany, due to production capacity limitations, donated two sets of IRIS-T originally intended for Egypt to Ukraine. It wasn't until 2024 that the Egyptian army displayed the first set of IRIS-T they received. Germany's outrageous operation, combined with the performance of less than 100 kilometers maximum range, forced Egypt to consider other options.

▲German IRIS-T air defense system (short-range type).

Since 2023, the entire Middle East has remained unsettled, and the practical performance of the "Patriot" and S-400 on the Ukrainian battlefield has proven the extremely high strategic value of long-range air defense missiles. Egypt is likely to have focused its attention on the HQ-9BE under these circumstances — after all, it is one of the world's three major long-range air defense systems. The maximum engagement distance data publicly demonstrated by AVIC reaches 260 kilometers. Moreover, countries that have currently equipped the HQ-9E series have already reached three, with rumors of procurement and delivery to Morocco, though confirmation is still pending. This alone is enough to verify the reliability of the HQ-9E series.

▲Pakistan's equipped HQ-9.

In general, given Egypt's need for long-range air defense missiles, procurement experiences, and the performance and reliability of the HQ-9BE itself, the possibility of this transaction happening is indeed very high. And considering the exorbitant unit price of modern long-range air defense systems, the transaction amount is probably not low either. The key point is that if HQ-9BE really exports to Egypt, then the much-discussed export of J-10CE will likely also come true. On one hand, the combined operation of the two can achieve the effect of "one plus one being greater than two," which is very attractive to Egypt, which is now urgently in need of improving its air defense situation; on the other hand, when Egypt chose Russian equipment ten years ago, it also made a full system purchase instead of choosing scattered items.

▲HQ-9E is indeed a good choice for Egypt.

If we further consider the level of the formation deployed domestically for this military exercise, then the likelihood of the joint air control combat system represented by J-10CE and HQ-9BE being favored and purchased by the Egyptian army has indeed skyrocketed to the top. This can also explain why the Airborne Early Warning-500, a strategically significant joint combat command center, also participated in the military exercise from such a long distance.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7496020698524926505/

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