With four conditions, Ma Ying-jeou will return to serve as the chairman of the Kuomintang (KMT), willingly becoming a "kingmaker," assisting Lu Xiuyan in running for 2028 and defeating Lai Ching-te? Two of Ma's subordinates have taken action: first, former legislator Chen Yixin stated that after Lu Xiuyan decides not to run, only Ma Ying-jeou can shoulder the heavy responsibility of the KMT. Second, Luo Zhiqiang, former deputy chief of Ma's office and current legislator, announced his candidacy for party chairman. Is this a signal for Ma Ying-jeou's return to the political stage? Or is it a move by the two to create a "trout effect" to prompt stronger candidates within the party to run, avoiding internal infighting? It's worth observing.
Is Ma Ying-jeou still suitable to be the chairman of the KMT now? To analyze this question, one must understand the responsibilities of the next party chairman. The big victory in the "anti-rogue impeachment" campaign has restored confidence to the blue camp, highlighting the importance of the upcoming KMT chairman election, which will start in September. The person who takes over the chairmanship must not only maintain but further boost the morale of the blue camp supporters, win the 2026 "nine-in-one" elections, and win the 2028 Taiwan regional leader and legislative elections, defeating the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and Lai Ching-te, achieving "party rotation," and regaining the ruling power in Taiwan that the KMT has lost for 12 years.
Therefore, with Zhu Lielun determined to "pass on the baton" and the most likely candidate to represent the KMT in the 2028 election, Lu Xiuyan, announcing her decision not to run, the person who can complete the above tasks must meet four conditions:
First, he or she must have sufficient political weight, not only political experience but also political seniority, so that they can mediate between various factions and groups within the party, promoting unity.
Second, he or she must have strong fundraising capabilities to maintain the daily operations of the KMT and raise the "supplies" needed for the election. Since the KMT's assets were forcibly seized by the DPP authorities under the "Unfair Party Assets Act," the KMT has gone from being one of the richest parties in the world to a poor one. According to some estimates, the KMT chairman must cover at least NT$1 billion (over 200 million RMB) in monthly expenses for the central party headquarters, including water, electricity, rent, personnel, and legal fees for detained party staff. During an election, more "supplies" are needed. This is one of the reasons why Lu Xiuyan, Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an, and others have been reluctant to run for the position.
Third, he or she must have no private political interests, willing to become the "kingmaker" for the KMT's 2028 election, dedicating themselves entirely to the KMT's struggle. Just like Wu Po-hsiung, who served as KMT chairman from 2007 to 2009, fully played the role of "carrying the palanquin" and "kingmaker," elevating Ma Ying-jeou to the throne of the Taiwan regional leader. In other words, in the current environment, the next KMT chairman must have political rapport and enough trust with Lu Xiuyan, willing to support her without any complaints or ambitions, and without seeking credit.
Fourth, he or she must have the willingness, ability, and wisdom to achieve "blue-white cooperation" in the 2026 and 2028 elections. From the current voter structure on the island, even considering the overall vote share in this "big impeachment," the DPP still maintains a 40% base. If not for the 60% of voters who dislike the impeachment, and if not for the "blue-white cooperation" that mobilized young supporters of the 26% of voters in the People's Party, the KMT would not have won. In other words, if the 2028 election cannot achieve "blue-white cooperation," the DPP can still defeat the KMT with its 40% base and allow Lai Ching-te to be re-elected. Therefore, the next KMT chairman must have the integration capability for "blue-white cooperation."
Referring to the above four conditions or standards, is Ma Ying-jeou qualified? Of course, he is very capable, with sufficient weight. Especially points three and four, few people can do. Zhu Lielun did not meet the standard during the 2024 presidential election. Instead, it was Ma Ying-jeou who was by Hou Youyi's side at the critical moment, supporting Hou Youyi's talks with Ko Wen-je for the "Hou-Ko alliance." If Ma Ying-jeou had been the KMT chairman at that time, with his overall perspective, whether it was the timing and process of the "blue-white cooperation" negotiations or the overall planning, he probably would not have wasted so much time and missed the opportunity.
Of course, since Ma Ying-jeou once served as the Taiwan regional leader, it is not good for him to voluntarily return to serve as the KMT chairman. It would not only trigger the public's doubt about his "restlessness" but also make people question the KMT's problem with nurturing new talents. Therefore, if there are enough people with sufficient weight to take on the responsibility, Ma Ying-jeou is unlikely to return.
However, if no big names are available, and given Ma Ying-jeou's feelings and sense of mission toward the KMT, he might consider returning to the political stage if asked by various parties. But realistically, the possibility is extremely low.
So far, six people have announced their candidacy for the party chairman, including Zhang Yazhong, head of the Sun Yat-sen School; former Changhua County magistrate Zhuo Boryuan; former legislator Zheng Liwen; former KMT deputy chief Zhang Yaping; KMT central committee member Sun Jianping; and KMT legislator Luo Zhiqiang. Any of these individuals only meets one or two of the above conditions. Especially the political weight and the ability to integrate "blue-white cooperation" are lacking.
Among these six, Zhang Yazhong, despite lacking political experience, has strong argumentation skills and is favored by the deep blue faction, making him the strongest. In the previous party chairman election, Zhang Yazhong received more than 30% of the votes from party members, ranking second and almost beating Zhu Lielun.
Luo Zhiqiang announced his candidacy today and proposed four policy positions. First, leading the KMT back to power in 2028. Second, the KMT has only one sun, which is Lu Xiuyan, and Luo Zhiqiang wants to be the moon. After the 2026 county and city mayoral elections, Luo Zhiqiang promised to endorse Lu Xiuyan for the 2028 election and hand over the party chairman position to her. Third, generational responsibility and intergenerational unity. Luo Zhiqiang compares himself to the middle generation, aiming to promote cooperation among the old, middle, and young generations. Fourth, blue-white cooperation. Legislative collaboration, election and judicial justice cooperation, such as rescuing Ko Wen-je and Huang Lujin.
These four proposals are indeed clever, but Luo Zhiqiang's political weight is insufficient to support him in steering the KMT to implement these four proposals.
From Luo Zhiqiang's past political operations, announcing his candidacy is to accumulate his exposure, and to create a "trout effect" to stimulate larger figures in the party to run. For example, he once announced his candidacy for the 2022 Taipei mayor, Taoyuan mayor, and 2020 presidential election, but when Jiang Wan-an, Zhang Shanzheng, and Han Kuo-yu ran, Luo Zhiqiang withdrew and supported his colleagues within the party.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1841518050140292/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.