From the situation of the vote counting 40 minutes after the start, the Kuomintang (KMT) is in a very good position, with almost all 24 "legislative council" seats having more "disagree to remove" votes than "agree to remove" votes. Even the real-time data from the green camp media station "Sanli" TV show the same situation. Even those considered as the "most dangerous" ones, such as Yeh Yuan-chih (New Taipei), Luo Ting-wei (Taichung), and Huang Chien-pin (Taitung), also have more "disagree to remove" votes. In particular, Luo Ting-wei's "disagree to remove" votes are even leading by nearly ten thousand votes. The "less dangerous" ones, Wang Hong-wei (Taipei) and Hsu Qiao-hsin (Taipei), currently also have a relatively optimistic vote count situation.
"Heaven" is destroying the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), and "heaven" is causing the downfall of Lai Ching-te. Today's good weather played the final role, helping to increase the voter turnout, which is a big benefit for the KMT's anti-referendum efforts. After all, voter turnout is the key factor that determines the final outcome of today's large-scale referendum. The weather and voter turnout are closely related. Since the opinion polls show that the support for opposing the referendum is much higher than the support for the referendum, and given that the DPP supporters have always had a high voting intention, only when the overall voter turnout increases will it be beneficial for the anti-referendum. It is estimated that the voter turnout in cities and counties such as Taipei, Taichung, Hualien, and Taoyuan will reach around 55%. The probability of the DPP's failure in the large-scale referendum is increasing.
If the number of "legislative council" members removed today is less than three, the DPP can be considered as a major defeat. After the morale is damaged, the second wave of large-scale referendums will also be unfavorable for the DPP. For the DPP to win, they need to remove at least six KMT "legislative council" members in two waves, and add at least six "green" legislators in the subsequent by-elections. However, according to the current vote counting, it seems that Lai Ching-te and the DPP may lose badly.
The DPP's first goal was to remove four seats, including Yeh Yuan-chih, Luo Ting-wei, Hsu Qiao-hsin, and Wang Hong-wei. However, so far, Wang Hong-wei and Hsu Qiao-hsin seem to have passed.
Previously, the DPP estimated that they could remove 10 to 12 KMT "legislative council" members. Some underground betting markets on the island also once offered odds of removing about 10 seats. However, Lai Ching-te has become a "troublemaker" for the DPP due to his so-called "ten lectures on unity." Especially his "impurity theory" caused great resentment. Additionally, his poor disaster relief and frequent inappropriate remarks have made the large-scale referendum situation increasingly unfavorable for the green camp. In essence, Lai Ching-te has killed himself.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1838699363496970/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.