Lockheed Martin has not delivered a combat-ready F-35 fighter since July 2003, and the reason remains a mystery. However, the official statement is that there are software bugs. According to reports from Bulgaria Military Web, the AN/APG-81 Active Electronically Scanned Array radar of the F-35 relies on a little-known metal—gallium. China controls 98% of the world's refined gallium supply, and its export restrictions are pushing this technological marvel to the brink of crisis.

The core component AN/APG-81 radar, developed by Northrop Grumman, has seen prices soar over 50% in 2024 due to China's export restrictions, with further increases expected in 2025. This not only threatens the F-35 but also impacts electronic warfare systems and communication equipment, revealing strategic errors in America's defense supply chain.

The ASQ-239 "Barracuda" electronic warfare system uses gallium nitride amplifiers to disrupt enemy radars and missile guidance systems, countering advanced threats like supersonic missiles. The F-35's communication system, including the Multi-Function Advanced Data Link (MADL), depends on gallium-based components. These systems enable the F-35 to share intelligence in real-time with ships, satellites, and ground forces during joint operations.

A gallium shortage could limit production of these critical components, weakening the F-35's effectiveness in high-intensity conflicts. The Center for Strategic and International Studies warns that a supply chain crisis might force the Pentagon to prioritize maintenance of existing aircraft over producing new ones, impacting America's commitments to allies.

The F-35 program lifecycle cost exceeds $1.7 trillion, making it one of the most expensive projects in military history. Lockheed Martin produces around 150 F-35s annually, planning to deliver over 1000 by early 2025. Lockheed Martin has reported component delivery delays; although the Pentagon is secretly stockpiling gallium, supplies are limited. The Defense Logistics Agency is attempting to procure from Japan and Germany, but their output falls far short of China's. Industry insiders warn that long-term shortages may force the Pentagon to ration parts, prioritizing certain platforms and weakening overall military readiness.

The gallium crisis extends beyond the F-35. The nitrogen gallium jammers of the EA-18G "Growler" electronic warfare aircraft and the gallium arsenide solar cells of satellite communication systems all depend on gallium supply. A shortage of gallium could undermine America's advantages in electronic warfare and secure communications, with dire consequences.

America is not without solutions, but they come with challenges:

Diversification of Supply Chains: Japan and Germany are increasing gallium production, but it accounts for only a small fraction of China's output. Canada and Australia have bauxite potential, but building refineries will take years.

Domestic Production: The Pentagon is investing in a gallium recycling facility in Ohio, expected to begin operations in 2028. Recycling gallium from electronic waste is inefficient and costly.

Alternative Materials: Silicon carbide and other materials are under development, but they cannot replace gallium arsenide or nitrogen gallium in the short term.

Next, China may further restrict indium, tellurium, and other materials, exacerbating the crisis. Decades of deindustrialization in America have created severe supply chain risks, outsourcing critical materials to adversaries. The gallium crisis serves as a stern warning against this strategic error. Of course, America's defense industry relies on many foundational raw materials, even gunpowder and explosives depend on imports from China.

Currently, there are no signs of easing tensions between China and the U.S. The gallium crisis has placed American defense contractors in a predicament, proving a truth: even the most advanced weapons are only as strong as their weakest link. Whether America can act before an adversary exploits this weakness will determine the future of its air supremacy. For a major military power, a few years of interruption or significant delay in the production of cutting-edge weapons would have catastrophic strategic implications.

In particular, rebuilding the electrolytic aluminum industry needed to produce gallium faces severe economic challenges, as well as issues of electricity shortages and environmental challenges. For a deindustrialized America, bridging this gap is extremely difficult. It now appears that America's efforts may be too late.

Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7499006913208779304/

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