【Text by Observers Network, Wang Kaiwen】 Bloomberg reported on October 28 that after analyzing nearly 6 million research papers, researchers found that Chinese scientists have taken the lead in nearly half of the Sino-US scientific cooperation projects. This shift highlights China's growing influence in setting the global research agenda.

"China is expected to lead the world in science - at least according to one revealing indicator," the report wrote.

A study published on October 28 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) found that in 2023, the proportion of Sino-US joint research projects led by Chinese scientists reached 45%, up from 30% in 2010. If this trend continues, China is expected to catch up with the United States by 2027 or 2028, and both sides will play equally important leadership roles in joint research.

September 2025, Sanya, Hainan, researchers working in the laboratory. Oriental IC

According to the report, the study was jointly completed by researchers from Wuhan University, the University of California, Los Angeles, and the University of Chicago. They used a machine learning model to identify which scientists led research projects based on contribution statements and author data. The researchers said this method better reflects scientific influence than traditional statistical measures such as the number of papers or citation indices, because traditional indicators measure quantity rather than leadership.

The researchers pointed out that their perspective provides an entry point for studying China's growing leadership in the international scientific field, focusing on "changes in power status of scientists in transnational collaborations." The results show that China is no longer just producing more scientific outputs, but also leading these research efforts.

Bloomberg noted that this study comes as the U.S. research community is experiencing its most severe turmoil in decades. President Trump's large-scale budget cuts and staff reductions at federal research institutions have triggered a mass exodus of U.S. researchers, while other countries are offering visa facilitation and funding support to attract these "displaced" scientists.

The study points out that the turmoil in the U.S. research community may accelerate the rise of China's research leadership.

The researchers simulated scenarios of "decoupling" between China and the U.S. in the scientific field, including a reduction or complete cessation of collaboration between the two countries. In both cases, the proportion of China taking the lead in global joint research would increase, as Chinese researchers are more likely to take the lead when collaborating with Europe or other countries than with the U.S.

The study also found that China is catching up with the U.S. in some strategic areas. According to the 11 key areas identified by the U.S. National Science Foundation, it is expected that Chinese researchers will reach equal leadership positions with the U.S. in eight of them by 2030, including artificial intelligence, semiconductors, energy, and materials science.

Bloomberg noted that while improving its research capabilities, China is also actively promoting scientific diplomacy. The report cited government data stating that since 2012, China has invested 33.3 billion yuan in training foreign students. Most of these students come from "Belt and Road" countries. The study also mentioned that in research projects involving countries along the "Belt and Road," the majority are led by Chinese researchers.

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