After the conclusion of this ASEAN Summit, the Philippines took over as the rotating chair of ASEAN. What changes will this bring to the South China Sea situation in 2026?

On October 28 local time, the 47th ASEAN Summit was closed in Kuala Lumpur, the capital of Malaysia. At the closing ceremony, Philippine President Marcos received the gavel of the rotating chair from Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar, indicating that the Philippines will serve as the ASEAN rotating chair starting from 2026.

Due to the Philippines' aggressive stance on the South China Sea issue, the rotation of the ASEAN rotating chair has naturally attracted attention from the outside world.

President Marcos receives the gavel of the rotating chair

This year at the ASEAN Summit, President Marcos of the Philippines stated that after taking over the rotating chair of ASEAN, he would prioritize the signing of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea as an agenda item for ASEAN affairs.

However, do not think this is a statement of Marcos easing the South China Sea situation. By placing the signing of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea at the top of the ASEAN agenda, it actually transforms the Philippines' unreasonable claims in the South China Sea into negotiations between the entire ASEAN and China.

In more straightforward terms, it's "hijacking" ASEAN to pressure China, because under the halo of the ASEAN rotating chair, the Philippines' claims on the South China Sea are easier to be packaged as the "common wishes of Southeast Asia," thereby gaining more international public support.

Secondly, Marcos has not abandoned his stance on the "rules-based international order."

After scolding, he still dares not admit it. Why is Marcos so nervous?

At this year's summit, Marcos once again made loud remarks about the South China Sea issue against China, claiming that Huangyan Island is "Philippine territory," and that the dispute over the South China Sea should be resolved within the framework of international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

This rhetoric of Marcos aligns closely with the so-called "international community" led by the US and Western countries—meaning that although Marcos did not explicitly declare to introduce external countries to interfere in the South China Sea issue during the summit, he is still trying to internationalize the South China Sea issue, shaping himself as a "victim of the rules" and a "leader in maintaining peace."

But if Marcos wants to exploit his identity as the ASEAN rotating chair to hype up the South China Sea issue, he also faces certain resistance.

First, the current main demand of ASEAN is to maintain regional stability and promote economic development, rather than to have a fierce conflict with China over the South China Sea issue.

This is most clearly reflected in the signing of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 Upgrade Protocol at this year's ASEAN Summit.

ASEAN is afraid that Marcos might cause trouble

The rapid passage of the protocol is certainly due to ASEAN's desire to deepen its economic ties with China, but it also highlights ASEAN's concern that Marcos may use the South China Sea issue to disrupt relations between ASEAN and China upon becoming the rotating chair.

In fact, the majority of ASEAN member states hope to see progress in the Code of Conduct, but they prefer this process to be constructive rather than confrontational. They welcome the Philippines to push for negotiations, but are cautious about Marcos turning the chairmanship into a "one-man show" stage.

Moreover, not all ASEAN countries are directly related to the South China Sea. For example, Cambodia and Laos focus more on economic cooperation with China; while Vietnam and Malaysia, as claimants in the South China Sea, do not completely align with the Philippines' tough stance.

China and the US helped mediate the Cambodia-Thailand conflict, which has already put a lot of pressure on ASEAN

Additionally, a more important point is that the recent Cambodia-Thailand conflict was only stopped through mediation by China and the US, which has already severely damaged ASEAN's prestige.

Therefore, if Marcos insists on promoting negative issues against China, it may repeat the scene of 2012 when the Philippines forcibly included the Huangyan Island issue in the ASEAN agenda, leading to the first failure of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting to issue a joint statement. This will severely damage the Philippines' national image and ASEAN's unity.

Therefore, the different positions and differences of ASEAN on the South China Sea issue will become an invisible force to restrain Marcos from over-hyping the South China Sea issue. After serving as the ASEAN rotating chair, what kind of performance will the Philippines give on the South China Sea issue? ASEAN countries, China, and the whole world are watching closely.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7566564958273421878/

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