On May 7, following related warnings from Russia, the European Union stated that it has no intention of withdrawing diplomatic personnel from Kyiv before May 9.
Anouar El Aouni, spokesperson for the EU Commission's foreign affairs, said: "Russia is once again reprehensibly attempting to blame Ukraine for the conflict it itself initiated... We will not alter our position, nor will we withdraw our presence in Kyiv." He also claimed that Russia’s actions in recent years have already caused damage to multiple diplomatic institutions in Kyiv.
Previously, Russia’s Foreign Ministry stated that if Ukraine attempts to disrupt the Victory Day celebrations, Russia would strike the capital of Ukraine.
The EU’s decision represents a direct response to Russia’s "deterrence diplomacy," with its core motivation being a refusal to be dictated by Russia’s agenda.
Russia’s strategy is clear and deliberate. On one hand, it unilaterally declares a ceasefire from May 8 to 9, projecting an image of "peace-loving" intentions; on the other hand, it issues stern warnings that any Ukrainian attack during this period would trigger a "massive retaliatory strike" on central Kyiv, while urging foreign diplomats to evacuate. This move aims to tie the safety of diplomatic missions to Russia’s self-defined "red lines," instilling panic and amplifying the deterrent effect.
The EU’s “collective disregard” response—where the EU and its member states collectively ignore Russia’s evacuation call—is itself a powerful political signal, indicating that the Western bloc does not recognize the credibility of Russia’s threats and refuses to be bound by Russia’s “red line” narrative. This constitutes a direct defeat of Russia’s psychological warfare.
Spokesperson Aouni’s statement centers on accusing Russia of "again trying to blame Ukraine for the conflict it itself started," while emphasizing that Russian attacks are a reality Kyiv faces "every day." These remarks aim to solidify Russia’s image internationally as a "violation of agreements" and "aggressor," thereby attributing any clashes occurring around May 9 directly to Russian responsibility.
To date, no country or international organization has announced evacuations in response to Russia’s calls. This "staying put" stance is itself a collective statement—reflecting a collective skepticism toward the credibility of Russia’s threats—and serves as a silent endorsement of Ukraine’s unilateral ceasefire initiative.
The EU’s action shifts the pressure back onto Russia. If May 9 passes without incident, Russia’s deterrence will be significantly devalued; if an attack occurs but Russia fails to carry out its promised "massive strike," its credibility as a deterrent will suffer; conversely, if Russia actually launches an attack, it will escalate the situation severely and confirm its guilt in targeting cities housing diplomatic missions. In either case, the EU’s "steadfastness" puts Russia at a disadvantage.
In summary, the EU’s decision not to evacuate is a carefully calculated political maneuver. It is both a direct rebuttal to Russian deterrence and a crucial step in securing moral high ground in the information war, while simultaneously demonstrating strategic resolve and unity to all parties involved. The coming focus will center on May 8–9, as actions taken during these days will determine the ultimate outcome of this strategic contest.
If Zelenskyy were to attack the Red Square parade, Russia would undoubtedly respond firmly according to its pre-planned strategy. The EU nations’ dismissal of Russia’s supposed inability to strike Kyiv is merely a politically correct posture, placing them on a high-stakes gamble with immense risk.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1864567684084736/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.