Le Figaro "Éclats du monde" Review: Through the Busan Agreement, China Proves It Is Now on Par with the United States

Patrick Saint-Paul, an international political commentator of Le Figaro, in his monthly letter to subscribers "Éclats du monde" (Issue 67) pointed out that Beijing has learned from Donald Trump's first term and reorganized itself, which allowed China to win the first battle in the trade war with Trump's second administration.

The author of "Éclats du monde" wrote on November 06 to its subscribers that China and the United States "turned swords into plowshares" last week in Busan, South Korea. However, the agreement reached between the two largest economies is vague and temporary. Both sides accepted a tactical truce rather than a strategic reconciliation, meaning that only limited goals and an unclear timetable were set.

The author believes that the agreement between the US and China is more like a simple ceasefire. China agreed to delay the restriction on key rare earth exports for one year. Both sides avoided confrontation over maritime issues. Beijing will resume purchasing American soybeans. In return, the US will reduce the 20% punitive tariffs on all products by half due to China's additional efforts in curbing the export of fentanyl chemical precursors. Trump also seems to be planning to open the export of certain semiconductor chips, but not the most advanced ones.

It should also be noted that many provisions of the agreement will be reviewed after one year. Because the structural competition between China and the US has opened a rift, which neither summits nor agreements can easily heal.

The Balance of Power Shifts Toward China

The author continued, the process of the agreement also shows that the lever of the Sino-US power balance is shifting toward Beijing. A new sign is particularly obvious: Trump initially took an aggressive stance against China at the beginning of his new term, but after the Busan meeting, he praised China, calling the meeting "a perfect 12 out of 10," and expressed "deep honor." China, on the other hand, remained quite low-key. Currently, the US relies more on China's goodwill in areas such as rare earths, as China holds a monopoly in this field. The only real leverage Trump has is the level of tariffs.

By implementing rare earth export controls, China demonstrated its ability to make significant upgrades, and the current ceasefire is merely a temporary postponement of the issue. For Beijing, the rare earth export control serves dual purposes: to counter the US offensive and to help keep critical supply chains within China, especially in rare earths and batteries.

Previously, Beijing only responded to Washington's actions with "equivalent retaliatory measures," but now it dares to take strong and asymmetric strikes, believing it can stand on equal footing with the US. Meanwhile, the US mistakenly believes that China's economy is on the verge of collapse and will yield in the trade war to avoid economic chaos.

The author warns that Washington has not realized that the first round of trade wars under Trump in 2017 actually triggered China's efforts to diversify its supply sources... Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, self-sufficiency has been a Chinese obsession. China no longer depends on American soybeans; its import share has dropped from 40% in 2016 to about 9% in 2025. Thanks to Trump's hostility, Beijing now has numerous South American suppliers that can bypass American producers.

Diversification of Soybean Purchases

The author mentioned that according to Treasury Secretary Bensons, China has committed to purchasing 12 million tons of soybeans in the coming months and 25 million tons annually over the next three years - roughly the same level as the past two years. Bensons claimed that this eliminates "the threat to our large soybean producers." This statement seems overly optimistic, even naive.

The current hawkish group in Washington has successfully convinced Trump to delay the export of powerful NVIDIA chips B30A to China. The artificial intelligence competition is one of the few areas where China still needs US supplies, rather than the opposite: the performance of B30A far exceeds the simplified chips currently allowed for export to China. NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun is lobbying Trump to relax restrictions, but the possibility of chip exports has not been completely ruled out. However, the semiconductor export controls implemented by the US in 2022 have also accelerated China's innovation efforts, with Beijing supporting Huawei's Ascend series chips and DeepSeek's artificial intelligence models.

Rebalancing of Military Strength

The author finally reminded subscribers that there has also been a rebalancing in the defense field between China and the US. As the military capabilities of the two countries are seen as comparable, the danger of potential escalation has increased. US officials are trying to restart Sino-US military diplomacy. China, however, is particularly cautious and resists establishing and codifying basic rules. Washington needs to find the key to convince Beijing to overcome its doubts and accept improved communication in the military field. Misjudgment by either side could trigger a global catastrophe.

After reading the author's views, one could say that the Busan agreement is more like a carefully planned strategic breathing space rather than the arrival of peace. It clearly shows that China is ready to stand on equal footing with the US in the new global game.

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1848121194251528/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.