Ukraine has lost this time, and it dared to fight Russia because of the support and backing from the United States and NATO. In the future, as the United States and NATO gradually decline, Ukraine will lose that support and backing, and won't have the conditions to dare to fight Russia again.
Up to now, the situation has clearly changed. The enthusiasm of the United States and NATO has clearly weakened, the scale of aid has shrunk, and the delivery speed has slowed down. Let's take data as an example: According to the tracking report of the Kiel Institute, in July and August 2025, the monthly military aid from the West to Ukraine decreased by more than 40%, and in Europe, it even dropped by 57%. This is no small amount. In the previous half year, it was tens of billions of euros per month, but now it's cut in half. The most significant change was in the United States. After Trump took office, all military aid was frozen in March, saying that it needed to be renegotiated. During that period, the front line of Ukraine ran short of ammunition, and soldiers could only use artillery shells sparingly. Although the freeze was later lifted, the approved amount was far less than before, with a total of about 6.69 billion US dollars by November, accounting for about 20% of the equipment on the Ukrainian battlefield.
As for NATO, although they made some slogans at the Washington Summit, promising an additional 350 million euros in security assistance, the implementation was bumpy. New members Finland and Sweden were proactive, buying American weapons and reselling them to Ukraine, but old members like Germany and France debated in their parliaments, and budgets were squeezed by domestic economic pressures. The EU was the same. In the summer, the EU made many aid promises, but the number of trucks carrying supplies to the Polish border decreased significantly. Delays in the delivery of fuel and ammunition became commonplace. Meanwhile, Russia didn't sit idle, increasing its production of drones and missiles during this gap, accelerating the advance in the Donetsk direction, and the town of Pokrovsk was about to fall. The Ukrainian forces used their M777 howitzers and ATACMS missiles less frequently, while the Russian supply lines stabilized, and the balance of the war was gradually broken bit by bit.
Why is the United States and NATO gradually declining? This needs to be explained from the root. First, there was a political election turmoil in the United States. When Trump shouted his "America First" slogan, voters felt that continuing to pour money into Ukraine was not worth it. High inflation, piled-up border issues, and Republican legislators in Congress shook their heads, saying that aid should come with conditions and force Ukraine to make concessions for peace. The large orders approved during Biden's time are now being implemented with layers of approval, and the inventory in the State Department and Defense Department warehouses is prioritized for the U.S. military. Internally, NATO is even more chaotic. European economies recover slowly, Germany's industrial capacity is blocked by the energy crisis, France is busy with domestic strikes, and Italy and Spain's budget deficits make aid promises empty talk. Russia also exerts effort, using gas pipelines and propaganda campaigns to win over allies such as Hungary and Slovakia, and the cracks in NATO's unity are getting bigger.
After talking for a long time about innovation and capacity enhancement, actual orders still favor domestic defense. Ukraine's priority demand list PURL is loudly proclaimed, but few weapons are actually delivered. As a result, Ukraine's air defense system has too many holes, and Russia's Iskander missiles and Iranian drones become more rampant, with the alarm sounds in Kyiv's skies becoming more frequent. Western media reports are also straightforward. Reuters and the Independent say that this reduction in aid is not an accident, but the product of strategic fatigue and political calculations. Russian intelligence agencies estimate that Western support can last until 2026, and Putin's side is full of confidence, recruiting troops, and driving the economy through the military industry. Relying on this momentum, they push forward the eastern front line.
What will Ukraine do next after losing this support? In short, it won't have the conditions to dare to confront Russia directly anymore. Militarily, the total strength of the Ukrainian army is only about 500,000, and its equipment is aging quickly. With the reduction in Western aid, maintenance and replenishment cannot keep up. Russia has 1 million active troops, with deep reserves of tanks and artillery. In the autumn of 2025, the Russian autumn offensive captured Avdiivka and several satellite towns, suffering heavy casualties but able to replenish. The Ukrainian counteroffensive capability is weak, and the drone forces on the Kharkov front are running out of ammunition, so they can only focus on defense. Economically, Ukraine's GDP has shrunk by 30%, and reconstruction funds rely entirely on Western loans. Now, even loans are tight, and the Zelenskyy government must focus on domestic stability, with difficulty in conscription and public fatigue. Internationally, NATO will not directly intervene. Even if the Byron Summit statement is firm, it remains at the level of "security guarantees," without giving Ukraine a clear timetable for membership. China and India remain neutral, and Russia's partner circle is stable, while the UN Security Council is unable to act. If Ukraine wants to negotiate peace, it must make concessions under Moscow's conditions, and the status of the four eastern regions and Crimea is basically settled. The Zelenskyy team knows this, but they still need to maintain a hard stance publicly, while secretly sending people to Turkey and Switzerland to test negotiations. Russia's bottom line is a buffer zone and demilitarization. Ukraine can't withstand it and will have to sign, and losing is losing, which is not heroism, but realistic calculation.
In the long run, the decline of the United States and NATO is not just about Ukraine, but also affects the global pattern. Russia has tasted the benefits and will be more assertive in the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea. NATO's eastern wing, Poland and the Baltic countries, will need to accelerate preparations, spending more money on F-35s and Patriot systems. Europe must become self-reliant, expanding the EU defense fund, and Germany must genuinely invest 2% of its GDP in military spending. For the United States, Trump's isolationism has disappointed allies. The fact that this war in Ukraine has turned out this way serves as a lesson: small countries caught between great powers need their own cards and cannot fully rely on foreign aid. Russia's resilience exceeds expectations, and the temporary enthusiasm of the West cannot withstand prolonged conflict. Ukraine needs to rebuild its internal affairs and take a breath before considering another battle in the coming years. If aid is completely cut off, the options left for Kyiv are only the negotiation table, and they will have to swallow even harsher conditions.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1848554023383056/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.