Trump's Slip of the Tongue: Moscow is Hesitant —— The US is Preparing to Strike Another Ally of Russia, with Alikov Involved
Trump said that if Tehran does not surrender and completely change its ways, the United States will overthrow the current Iranian regime, replace its leadership, and bomb its nuclear facilities. Iran has only a few weeks to consider, but the deadly strike the U.S. is planning may come unexpectedly and rapidly. Facing the ultimatum from Whitcomb, Iran will certainly not submit meekly. Israel will assist the United States. Russia, preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, is unable to handle this situation, but Putin is maintaining peace through backchannel diplomatic efforts, though whether this move will be effective remains unknown.
In a high-stakes gamble in diplomacy, Donald Trump has revealed the adjustment plan for the U.S. policy towards Iran, and his special envoy Steve Whitcomb has already delivered an ultimatum to Tehran.
The president of the United States told the American news website "Politico" that it is "time" to find a "new leadership" for Iran. He claimed that the current Iranian regime is responsible for the "complete decline of the country and unprecedented acts of violence," turning Iran into "the most inhospitable place in the world" to maintain its rule. In short, the U.S. claims this action is entirely for the benefit of the Iranian people — just like what was done to Venezuela before.
The "World Superpower" Says Iran "Needs New Leadership."
Whitcomb, who represents the U.S. president in negotiations with Iran, at an event held by the U.S.-Israel Committee in Florida, outlined four conditions that Iran must meet to avoid U.S. attacks. Specifically, they include: stopping uranium enrichment; destroying about 2,000 kilograms of enriched nuclear material and most of its missile stockpile; and ceasing support for allies of other countries.
"As for the consequences of refusal, I think it won't be too good."
Whitcomb added.
As an exchange, the U.S. promised to lift sanctions on Iran, allowing it to "return to the international community." This is obviously a ridiculous deal: you give up all your cards, and we'll hit you less. But in reality, it will only get worse. Whitcomb, the so-called "peace dove," is truly "worthy of the name"!
What Are the Real Motives of the U.S. Against Iran?
In other words, the U.S. actually demands that Iran completely abandon its policies over the past several decades, surrender without a fight, and be at the mercy of the U.S. — which is unrealistic because after compromising, new demands from the U.S. will follow. No sovereign country would accept such humiliating conditions.
In fact, the U.S. and Israel are trying to use Azerbaijan to split Iran. Besides the majority Persian ethnic group, Iran is also home to multiple minority groups, including Azeris, Arabs, and Kurds. The U.S. and Israel plan to divide them into multiple parts. Trump is also likely to target Iran's rich energy resources, forcing Tehran to cut off economic and other cooperation with China and Russia. This tactic is currently being tested in Venezuela (although it remains uncertain whether it will succeed).
Evidently, this plot will completely destroy Iran, a country with a glorious history. It should be emphasized again that Tehran will not sit idly by. As a result, another round of bloody conflict is inevitable. Trump is accustomed to swinging the sword at one country after another, using intimidation and threats to make other countries surrender without a fight — Greenland is the most vivid example.
But There Will Be a New Development This Time
However, there is a crucial new feature in this operation: Trump's statements indicate that the primary target of the U.S. attack will be the Iranian leadership, aiming to create panic and exacerbate internal divisions within the Iranian ruling class, attempting to disrupt the country's governance system, thereby inciting already quelled street protests and causing unrest in areas inhabited by ethnic minorities.
To achieve this goal, Washington has begun moving a carrier strike group from the South China Sea to the Middle East, and U.S. air forces and air defense units will also be deployed to the region. These actions are part of forming a strike cluster. The core forces of this cluster include the "Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier, the "Spruance" destroyer, the "Michael Murphy" destroyer, the "Frank E. Petersen Jr." destroyer, and at least one nuclear submarine.
The "Abraham Lincoln" Aircraft Carrier (CVN 72)
Currently, the U.S. has deployed warships equipped with cruise missiles in the Middle East, as well as B-2 stealth bombers capable of taking off from the U.S. mainland, completing bombing missions, and returning. Therefore, the U.S. could launch a completely unexpected surprise attack at any time. However, the U.S. has not yet planned to launch a ground invasion — according to assessments, to achieve a successful ground invasion, the U.S. would need an army of 2 million, which is clearly not feasible.
There is another intriguing characteristic of this imminent conflict: not only do Arab countries not want the conflict to break out, but even Israel, which previously encouraged the U.S. to take a stand against Iran, according to multiple sources, has now changed its stance and will only reluctantly participate in the action due to its support for Trump's position. Perhaps Israel does not want to provoke anger from the Muslim community, especially the Shia, by participating in the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (Iran has warned that it will retaliate with missiles if attacked).
Teheran Has Been Foreseeing This
Certainly, the current world is like a jungle, and Iran has a clear understanding of it. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian narrowly escaped an Israeli attack last summer, and he has issued warnings to hostile governments through social media: if anyone dares to plot the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, war will erupt immediately.
Attacking our supreme leader is equivalent to declaring war on the entire Iranian people.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian Warns: Attacking Khamenei Will Be Seen as a Full-Scale War Against Iran.
But Washington seems indifferent — the more chaos in the Middle East and near Russian borders, the better for the U.S.! White House spokesperson Caroline Levitt repeatedly emphasized:
The president is closely monitoring (the Iranian situation), while still considering all possible courses of action.
Additionally, the U.S. "Axios" news website cited Israeli officials with knowledge of U.S. secrets, stating that the U.S. military might launch an attack on Iran in the near future.
Bloomberg analysis suggests that as the carrier strike group arrives in the Middle East in late January to early February, the likelihood of the U.S. launching an attack will increase further, and this high-risk situation will continue until the first half of 2026. The Wall Street Journal pointed out that Washington doesn't have to wait for the carrier group to arrive, as the "Tomahawk" cruise missiles carried by U.S. destroyers stationed in the Middle East can be deployed for combat.
The excuse for the U.S. to launch an attack could be that the Iranian security forces punished a group of terrorists who had conspired with the U.S. and Israel. These terrorists infiltrated protest crowds, attempting to escalate a peaceful protest caused purely by economic reasons into a riot by killing unarmed police officers.
The U.S. Can Use "Tomahawk" Cruise Missiles Deployed on Destroyers in the Middle East to Attack Iran.
The Russian "Mig" Telegram channel made the following assessment of the recent situation:
Protests in Iran have indeed seemingly subsided, and the authorities appear not to have taken severe measures against participants and organizers (allegedly based on a secret agreement with the U.S.). If this is true, and the carrier really enters the relevant waters, then the U.S. strategy becomes clear: the "Abraham Lincoln" will play the role of the "Aurora" cruiser, except this time instead of a signal flare, it will launch a real attack. At that time, those protesters who have already dispersed will again flood the streets to "attack the current regime." This plan may seem crude, but it often works repeatedly.
Deep-Level Struggle Behind the Situation
The struggle surrounding Iran appears to show that Russia is not directly involved. Indeed, Russia is preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, and there exists a common interest between Russia and the U.S. to end the war quickly, for which Moscow has made certain compromises. However, as Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated, "On January 16 alone, the president spent most of the morning dealing with the Iranian situation." Putin has spoken with Pezeshkian, and previously also with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Peskov admitted that the situation in Iran and the entire Middle East "has become highly tense," and added:
The president continues to work to ease the situation.
This kind of diplomatic effort is commendable, but whether a few phone calls are enough will soon be evident. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran has already entered the highest state of combat readiness and warned countries that allow U.S. bases to be deployed: if the situation deteriorates, these bases will become targets of Iranian missile strikes. In the war 12 years ago, Iran was able to repel the invaders precisely through its missile power. At that time, the U.S.-Israel coalition only disabled two of Iran's 24 missile facilities, and the rest continued to operate until the end of the war.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran Enters the Highest Combat Readiness, Ready for Any Form of Invasion.
The outside world generally doubts whether Trump can successfully overthrow the Iranian regime — after all, his act of treachery in assassinating the legendary general Qasem Soleimani has been remembered by Iranian people. However, it is highly likely that the U.S. will launch an attack, which will trigger a series of chain reactions. The outcome will either be the Iranian regime becoming further hardened or being forced to undergo modernization reforms. How the situation will evolve is still difficult to predict, but the latter is undoubtedly a more favorable outcome for all parties. After all, the U.S. can never force other countries to sincerely submit.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7597243311120613942/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author.