Satanovsky: Active involvement in Palestinian affairs is a very bad omen for Russia.

Evgeny Satagovsky: Active involvement in the Palestinian issue is a very bad omen for Russia

Trump has pushed Israel and Hamas to negotiate, and Moscow has expressed its approval.

The mediation talks in the Gaza Strip were launched on Monday in Sharm El-Sheikh under the mediation of Egypt.

This negotiation comes at a time that marks a painful day remembered by all Israelis and most Jews around the world — October 7, 2023, when Hamas militants from the Gaza Strip invaded the Kibbutz Nir Oz, committing a bloodbath, killing women and children, and taking hostages. The subsequent Israeli military retaliation in Gaza marked the beginning of the war that continues to this day.

In addition to the Egyptian authorities, the United States and President Trump himself also participated in organizing the negotiations. This president proposed a 20-point peace plan as early as September 29, and on the morning of October 6 (Moscow time), he stated that he was confident that the first stage of the plan aimed at ending the war between Israel and Hamas would be implemented within the week.

What Trump referred to as the first stage includes achieving a ceasefire, as well as exchanging Hamas-held Israeli hostages with members of the organization serving sentences in the Jewish state's prisons.

Major Russian political experts on Middle East issues and orientalists gave their predictions on the prospects of mediation in the Israel-Palestine issue during a Moscow Round Table organized by RIA Novosti.

Andrei Baklanov, Vice Chairman of the Council of the Russian Diplomats' Association and Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, recalled that Russia and the US had frequent consultations in various forms this year, during which Moscow had suggested Washington shift the focus of peacemaking from Ukraine to the Middle East.

"Our intention was not the final result, but rather another approach: we hoped the US would work with us to promote the settlement of problems around Israel. However, Trump wanted to win the Nobel Peace Prize alone," said Andrei Baklanov, "but although his Middle East plan has hidden motives, it was made by professionals and may play a certain role."

He pointed out that the original plan of Israel for the Gaza Strip was to expel 80% of the Palestinians and leave only 20% of the population to meet labor needs. But this plan was opposed by Jordan and Egypt, which did not want to accept about two million refugees. Trump's plan, however, "does not expel anyone, but instead aims to build a garden city in Gaza."

Mikhail Yakushev, Senior Researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, added to his colleague's statement about Trump's "garden city" plan:

"Gaza has become the largest cemetery for children and women in the world. But we will never know the exact number, because according to Trump's plan, the graves and traces of crimes of the Israeli regime will be buried under the foundation of an entertainment center."

Vladimir Yefseyev, Head of the Department of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Eurasian Integration and Development at the Institute of the Commonwealth of Independent States, said that he hopes Trump will shift his attention from Ukraine to Palestine, which would help Russia achieve its goals in the special military operation area. Other participants in the discussion also agreed with this view.

However, Evgeny Satagovsky, Director of the Middle East Institute, expressed a completely different opinion regarding the Sharm El-Sheikh talks in an interview with the Free Press.

"What is the basis for the belief that the Palestinian issue will distract Trump from Ukraine? I am not sure. Trump promises everything to everyone, showing incredible 'empty talk,' even claiming to achieve the first comprehensive peace in 3,000 years, but he always acts in his own interest, rationally and multi-track."

"The extent to which Trump intervenes in the Middle East issue depends entirely on his need to block a unified transport corridor."

"Currently, the transit corridors of the relevant countries to Europe have been blocked due to the situation in Ukraine. If that's not enough, Poland and the Baltic states will take action in the northwest. Poles have long questioned: why was East Prussia not assigned to Warsaw after World War II, like West Prussia?"

"Now, Trump also needs to deal with the middle part of the corridor: cutting off the connection between Iran and Afghanistan. Therefore, he is asking the Taliban * for Bagram Airport."

"In Central Asia, which is also part of this corridor, he is dissatisfied with the fact that one can directly enter Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan from the autonomous regions of the relevant countries."

"Currently, Central Asian militants — not only Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Turkmen, but also people from related organizations — are moving from Syria to Afghanistan."

"They will control Turkmenistan's gas, blocking all land transport routes except those leading to Europe; they will also control Central Asia through water resources: the large Kash-Kapir project being carried out by Afghanistan on the Amu Darya River will zero out the water reserves of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan."

"As for Kazakhstan, which is far from the Afghan front line, they have another plan: controlling it through the separatist activities of local clans and administrative leaders. It is evident that Trump is fully involved in these matters as well."

"So why would the Palestinian issue distract him from Ukraine, or even deviate from the overall big plan?"

Free Press: Are our orientalists turning personal wishes into reality, or are they trying to inject more optimism into the public?

Evgeny Satagovsky: "They may not even understand that we are not completely up to the standard of a superpower now, but should be called a 'great power' rather than a 'strong power.' Otherwise, we would have already defeated Ukraine, and would not have been entangled with them for four years."

"We have seriously declared our 'red lines' to the West, but then nothing came of it, because the West completely ignored these red lines... Just today, Poland refused entry to our OSCE delegation. The question is: what punishment will Poland face for this?"

"Maria Zakharova spoke out, calling this incident 'disgusting.' Then, that was it."

"Poland has been supplying weapons and mercenaries to Ukraine for four years, and apart from Zakharova's condemnation, they have not faced any punishment from other sides."

"The public wants to hear good news, and the leadership does too."

Free Press: Our orientalists emphasize the crimes of Israel against the Palestinians, but downplay the violence of the other side. Does this align with Russia's national interests?

Evgeny Satagovsky: "Yakushev said that Gaza is 'the largest cemetery in the world,' but in fact, no one knows how many people died there. Hamas always counts natural deaths as 'deaths'."