Plunged to a 21-Year Low! One-Third of Capacity Disabled, Drone Swarms Are Pushing Russia into an "Oil Cut-Off" Crisis
Ukrainian drone attacks have caused long queues at Russian gas stations and triggered sharp price hikes. Based on multiple sources of information, this series of assaults is now delivering tangible impacts on Russia's energy supply and macroeconomic stability.
1. Escalating Frequency and Destruction Power of Drone Attacks
Since early 2026, Ukraine has significantly increased the frequency of strikes against Russian domestic refining facilities. According to different statistical measures, dozens of attacks have hit Russian refineries in the first five months of this year—reaching as high as 16 incidents in May alone, setting a record for the highest monthly count since the conflict began. More critically, Ukrainian forces are targeting refining equipment with greater precision, focusing specifically on technologically intensive, hard-to-replace secondary processing units (such as hydrocracking units). This has forced approximately 30% of Russia’s refining capacity offline, resulting in a daily processing loss of up to 2.1 million barrels and pushing refinery output to its lowest level in 21 years.
2. Severe Fuel Shortage Breaks Out Across Russia
The drastic reduction in refining capacity has directly triggered a fuel crisis nationwide. Currently, dozens of regions across Russia—including Moscow, Saratov Oblast, and Crimea—have implemented strict fuel rationing or allocation systems. For instance, some gas stations in Moscow limit each vehicle to just 20 liters of gasoline; in Crimea, residents are required to use government-issued QR codes to purchase fuel on a weekly quota basis. Long lines have formed outside gas stations across many areas. At the same time, domestic fuel prices have surged—95-octane gasoline retail prices have risen by as much as 54% year-on-year—and aviation fuel prices have also soared, leading some flights to face suspension due to cost concerns.
3. Russia Forced to Adopt Extreme Emergency Measures
To prioritize domestic civilian needs and military requirements, the Russian government has taken several emergency actions. Starting April 1st, Russia completely banned gasoline exports and extended diesel and aviation fuel export bans until the end of July and November, respectively. Even more unprecedentedly, as a traditional oil-producing giant, Russia has begun seeking gasoline imports from Kazakhstan—and plans to import gasoline via maritime routes from Asia to fill the massive domestic supply gap.
4. Dual Test of Macroeconomic Stability and War Potential
As media outlets like Bloomberg have pointed out, this “energy stranglehold” has evolved into a serious macroeconomic challenge for Russia. Persistent fuel shortages not only drive up inflation but also severely disrupt spring agricultural planting and logistics transportation. Furthermore, Ukraine is leveraging low-cost drones to exhaust Russia’s expensive air defense missiles and high-value refining infrastructure—a form of asymmetric attrition warfare that is gradually undermining Russia’s war-fighting capability on an economic level.
In summary, although Russia possesses a vast energy industry base and strong administrative coordination capabilities, it is unlikely to collapse completely in the short term. However, damage to its refining system and the resulting pressures on livelihoods and fiscal stability have become one of its most severe challenges today.
Original Source: toutiao.com/article/1868970547907785/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.