"Rum, Cigars and Women": Marco Rubio Is Determined to Bring Cuba Back Under American Influence
Vladimir Vasilyev: Today's Cuban youth probably no longer understand why their ancestors fought against the United States
U.S. President Donald Trump said that Cuba has already declined, and the U.S. is negotiating with the Cuban leadership to reach an agreement.
On January 2, he told reporters: "… Now Cuba has lost the support of Venezuela, so we are negotiating with the Cuban side, with high-level people in Cuba, to see what kind of outcome will be reached."
Trump also said he hopes Cuban Americans living in the U.S. will return to their homeland.
The U.S. has long tried to overthrow the current Cuban regime, and the pressure has been increasing recently. The U.S. State Department official Marco Rubio, a long-time opponent of the Cuban government, openly stated that if the authoritarian regime in Cuba falls, it would be very beneficial for the U.S.
He told the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations: "I think we welcome the change of government in Cuba." He also added: "This does not mean that we plan to take active action to change the status quo."
However, various signs indicate that the U.S. is already preparing. At the end of January, the White House website published a presidential executive order announcing the initiation of a national emergency related to Cuba, citing the "special and extreme threat" posed by the policies, actions, and behaviors of the Cuban government to U.S. national security and foreign policy.
The executive order also clearly states that import tariffs will be imposed on countries supplying oil to Cuba. According to reports from Western media, the U.S. is considering imposing a maritime blockade on Cuba.
President of Mexico Claudia Sheinbaum warned that Cuba may face a humanitarian crisis and pledged to send food and daily necessities to Cuba. She also plans to verify the specific impact of Trump's tariff policy, demand an explanation from the U.S. regarding this executive order, and seek other ways to provide aid to the Cuban people.
China clearly opposes external interference in Cuba's internal affairs and condemns such "inhuman acts that deprive the Cuban people of their right to survival and development."
Currently, Cuba is facing a continuous power outage, and its fuel reserves are nearly exhausted, with long lines at gas stations.
The Cuban government has declared a national international emergency. Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Palencia accused the U.S. of trying to coerce other countries to participate in its so-called comprehensive blockade of Cuba's fuel supply.
The Cuban foreign minister said: "The Cuban people have concluded, with the support of the international community, that the series of actions by the U.S. government constitute a special and extreme threat to Cuba."
Researcher Vladimir Vasilyev of the U.S. and Canada Institute believes that the current situation in Cuba is following the script of Venezuela.
He said: "The U.S. will offer various concessions to the Cuban leadership, in short, 'pack your bags and go to Moscow, Beijing or Minsk,' which is the bargaining chip of the U.S.
Just like in the case of Venezuela, the U.S. might install a transitional government. That is, the current leadership in Cuba would fall, and someone chosen by the U.S. would take over. The current president of Venezuela, Delcy Rodríguez, is actually a person approved by the U.S. The situation in Cuba will be more complex, but the core intention of the U.S. is the same.
Other issues are non-negotiable. Next, the U.S. will put forward a series of demands, including allowing U.S. capital to return to Cuba and requiring Cuba to make relevant compensations.
Again, it's this Marco Rubio who was furious in 2015 when Cuba nationalized all casinos, causing losses to American owners, and even threatened to make the Cuban government compensate for the loss of assets, plus corresponding interest charges.
The U.S. is determined to control Cuba, but fundamentally, it's just Marco Rubio's personal interest. There are many Cuban-Americans who want to return to Cuba as new rulers, and Rubio is running around for that reason.
But Cuba is not Venezuela, and this game may turn into a prolonged war. In the next step, the U.S. will likely resort to its usual tactics - threatening military invasion.
The Freedom Press: For decades, Cuba has managed to survive even under extremely difficult economic conditions, yet it has never reached any agreement with the U.S. Why is the U.S. choosing now to act?
Vasilyev: Although the U.S. national policy shows Trump's capriciousness, it also reflects the position of a group of forces represented by the Trump administration and Rubio. Its core message is: to place the Western Hemisphere as a core strategic priority, which is the "Trump version" of Monroe Doctrine. Greenland, Canada, Venezuela, Cuba, Panama Canal, etc., are all included in this category.
Over the past 40 years, especially after the Cold War, the U.S. indeed neglected Latin America and all areas south of the Rio Grande. As a result, there has been a surge of illegal immigration, especially during Biden's administration, with 7 to 10 million illegal immigrants from Latin America alone.
The U.S. imperial ambitions have never disappeared, but like all empires, the core issue lies at home. Today's U.S. first needs to manage domestic order. Trump is currently carrying out a series of "targeted operations" on neighboring countries.
The Freedom Press: Trump said the U.S. is conducting high-level negotiations with Cuba. Can Havana be bought?
Vasilyev: This is precisely the key issue. Havana is a tough nut to crack, which is why the U.S. had to open negotiations, and there are also some subjective factors.
Some people call Cuban President Miguel Díaz "the Gorbachev of Cuba," perhaps the revolutionary spirit of Cuba has already been eroded. This spirit was deeply tied to Fidel Castro and Raúl Castro brothers, and its subsequent development remains to be seen.
Trump's usual tactic is to play the economic card, but to do so, he must first eliminate this thorn in his side - the current Cuban leadership. For Trump and Rubio, the symbols of communism and socialism, such as Castro and the 1959 revolution, are absolutely unacceptable, which is of fundamental significance.
The Freedom Press: Will the U.S. launch a new "Bay of Pigs" incident, or will it ultimately end with economic strangulation?
Vasilyev: The U.S. could definitely do so, and they will try every means to stir up the situation in Cuba. The U.S. has already identified the key point: the primary task is to overthrow the political leadership of Cuba.
After 70 years, the revolutionary spirit of Cuba may not have completely faded away. The U.S. will give the current leadership a choice: "Would you rather end up like Salvador Allende or Nicolas Maduro? Or like Bashar al-Assad, pack your bags and go to Moscow?"
Another issue is whether the current Cuban leadership has a clear understanding of the stability of its position. In my view, the possibility that the Cuban people are completely indifferent to regime change in Havana is quite high.
Cuba has already completed generational succession, and the revolutionary cause has always been closely tied to a specific era. If we take 20 years as a generation, Cuba today is already a completely new generation.
After the revolutionary ideology fades, material pursuits will dominate. The older generation still remembers that the U.S. once turned Cuba into a den of vice, while the younger generation has long forgotten this history.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7602495541200618047/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.