【Text by Observers Network, Xiong Chaoran】President of the United States Donald Trump's "50% tariff sword" has already fallen heavily on India, and White House senior advisor for trade and manufacturing Peter Navarro continues to attack New Delhi with words, which is like "killing the heart".

According to Bloomberg on August 27, Navarro said during an appearance on Bloomberg Television's "Balance of Power" program that he tried to continue pressuring India to stop purchasing Russian energy and directly called the Ukraine-Russia conflict "Modi's war" (Modi's war). "I call it 'Modi's war' because part of the path to peace goes through New Delhi."

Navarro believes that "by purchasing discounted Russian oil, Russia uses the funds to support its war machine," and he argued that this in turn increases the burden on the United States, as Ukraine continuously requests weapons and financial aid.

"India's actions have caused losses for everyone in the United States. Consumers, companies, and everything else are suffering losses, workers also suffer losses, because India's high tariffs (barriers) have cost us jobs, factories, income and higher wages. In addition, taxpayers also suffer losses, because we have to pay for Modi's war."

"What worries me is that Indians are so arrogant. They say, 'Oh, we don't have higher tariffs. Oh, it's our sovereignty. We can buy oil from any country we want.'” Navarro sarcastically said: "India, you are the world's largest 'democratic country', okay, act like a 'democratic country'."

Photo from the Bloomberg Television program where Navarro participated

Recently, Navarro's criticism of India has been unrelenting and never stopped.

The Times of India reported on August 22, citing Navarro's recent comments to American media that "India seems unwilling to acknowledge its role in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, it just doesn't want to." He further criticized that India importing Russian oil is merely a "refining profit plan", "India is just a laundry shop, washing money for the Kremlin."

After the criticism, Navarro suddenly added emotion: "I love India. Listen, Modi is a great leader. But, please, please India, look at your role in the global economy. What you're doing now is not creating peace, but prolonging the war."

Bloomberg pointed out that Navarro's latest remarks echo Trump's previous criticism of India's purchase of Russian energy. Trump had stated that India's purchase of Russian energy helps "fund" Russian President Putin in the ongoing conflict.

India, however, argues that purchasing Russian oil is a necessary measure to maintain low energy prices and stabilize the domestic market, and accuses the US action as "absurd".

Historically, India was not a major importer of Russian crude oil, but relied more on the Middle East. However, this changed in 2022. After the outbreak of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the G7 set a price ceiling of $60 per barrel of oil to limit the Kremlin's oil revenue while ensuring the continued flow of global oil supply. U.S. officials admitted that India's ability to purchase oil at discounted prices is a result of this mechanism.

On July 31 local time, Trump signed an executive order announcing that the U.S. would impose a 25% tariff on Indian goods starting August 7. On August 6, Trump signed another executive order, imposing an additional 25% tariff on India for purchasing Russian energy through "direct or indirect means." The U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced that the new tariffs will take effect at midnight local time on August 27, meaning the U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on Indian goods.

The 50% tariff rate is the highest tariff the U.S. has imposed on Asian economies in this round of tariff wars, affecting over 55% of India's exports to the U.S., while the U.S. is India's largest export market. Although key products such as electronics and pharmaceuticals are temporarily exempted, India's large number of labor-intensive industries, such as textiles, gems and jewelry, will be affected.

Reuters reported on August 27 that analysts estimate that since early 2022, India has saved at least $17 billion by increasing oil imports from Russia. Data from the Indian think tank "Global Trade Research Initiative" (GTRI) show that after the 50% tariff on India takes effect, it could reduce India's exports by more than 40% in the fiscal year from April to March next year, i.e., nearly $37 billion.

"India needs Russia to continue providing defense equipment in the coming years, cheap oil when possible, geopolitical support on the continent, and political backing on sensitive issues," said Happymon Jacob, founder of the Indian think tank "Committee for Strategic and Defense Research" (CSDR): "This makes Russia an invaluable partner for India."

However, he also added: "Although there have been difficulties in Indo-US relations under Trump, the U.S. remains India's most important strategic partner. At least for now, India does not have the luxury of choosing between the two."

Bloomberg reported on August 26, citing multiple sources, that India plans to cut its oil imports from Russia. The sources said this is a "modest concession" made by India to the U.S., but also indicates that the country has no intention of cutting ties with Russia.

Two Indian government sources told Reuters that India hopes to repair relations with the U.S. and is willing to increase purchases of U.S. energy, but is unwilling to completely stop oil imports from Russia. An Indian foreign secretary told reporters on August 26 that negotiations between India and the U.S. are still ongoing, with officials from both countries holding online talks on trade, energy security (including nuclear cooperation), and critical mineral exploration.

International relations experts believe that Trump's latest move may bring Indo-US relations back to the worst level since the U.S. imposed sanctions on India in 1998 due to its nuclear tests. In addition to trade disputes, the conflict may also affect Indian tech professionals' work visas and outsourcing services.

Reuters said that even if India manages to get some tariffs lifted in the future, it will have long-term impacts, especially in the trade field.

"Countries such as China, Vietnam, Mexico, Turkey, as well as Pakistan, Nepal, Guatemala, and Kenya may benefit, even if the tariffs are lifted, India may still be excluded from key markets," said Ajay Srivastava, founder of GTRI and former Indian trade official.

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