India's Defense Research Network published an article commenting on India's AMCA fifth-generation fighter project, emphasizing India's "aviation self-reliance" strategy and repeatedly implying that this is a global cooperation opportunity, calling on Western countries, especially the UK, France, Japan, Italy, and other Western-aligned nations, to actively seize the opportunity to join the Indian project.

The tone is full of condescension, as if telling Western countries not to be ungrateful, as if India is granting Western companies a privilege to enter the core of high-end fighter jet development.

This kind of expression has become a typical tactic in India's recent military industry promotion: on one hand, it emphasizes self-reliance and highlights the Modi government's "Make in India" strategic banner; on the other hand, it releases signals of so-called international cooperation, portraying participation in AMCA as a honor.

But in reality, India has not truly mastered the core technologies of fifth-generation fighters, but rather creates an illusion of technological equality and status parity through rhetoric.

The fundamental purpose is that India cannot manufacture it on its own and hopes for help from Western countries.

AMCA Model

If we disassemble the technical plan of the AMCA project, we will find that the so-called independent research and development is essentially self-assembling, still following the old path of "global brand" that India's military industry has been using for decades, only changing from buying complete aircraft to stitching together parts.

In terms of engines, the AMCA Mk1 uses the American GE F414 engine. Although it has obtained some local production permits, the key core technologies are still strictly restricted.

In the Mk2 phase, India plans to jointly develop a new engine with the French Safran company, which has a thrust of 120 kN, but France holds the technical leadership, while India mainly undertakes the production stage.

Similarly, in areas such as stealth materials, avionics systems, AI electronic pilots, and AESA radar: the technical solutions from Israel, the UK, France, and Japan are unavoidable dependencies.

This model can indeed attract multiple countries to participate in cooperation, even sharing costs, but it also brings significant risks.

Multi-country assembly means an extremely complex supply chain, and compatibility issues will arise in part standards, avionics systems, fire control logic, and communication protocols, which will extend the integration test time indefinitely.

Moreover, the bottleneck remains a bottleneck. Once a cooperating country tightens export licenses due to political reasons, the entire production line will stop.

And the so-called self-manufacturing actually has almost no help for India's own technology accumulation, because the key technologies that can be controlled are still in others' hands.

AMCA Model

It must be said that India does have determination in the AMCA project. Since the Indian Air Force officially proposed the need for an advanced medium fighter around 2010, the project has always been in a cycle of discussion, design, and rejection.

As early as 2013, the Indian Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) completed wind tunnel tests of multiple designs, finally selecting the aerodynamic shape labeled 3B-09 as the main direction.

However, after that, the project fell into a technical argumentation phase that lasted nearly ten years, until March 2024, when the Indian Government's Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) finally approved entering the prototype development phase, meaning that the AMCA project was officially launched.

By May 2025, the Indian Ministry of Defense also approved the so-called project execution model, the core of which is to allow Indian state-owned and private enterprises to form a consortium, trying to divide production through competition and collaboration.

The official timetable is very optimistic: completing the launch of five prototypes by the end of 2026 to early 2027, achieving the first flight between 2028–2029, delivering and equipping by 2034, and starting mass production of 126 units in 2035.

However, looking back at India's performance in the Tejas project, such progress is completely unrealistic.

The Tejas took 18 years from its establishment in 1983 to its first flight in 2001. Based on this historical performance, it is almost impossible for the AMCA to complete the prototype development and first flight within three years.

AMCA Model

American F-22 took 16 years from project initiation to its first flight, F-35 took 10 years, and China's J-20 took 9 years.

Both China and the US have mature aviation industry systems, complete material industries, and vast supply chains. However, India's current aviation manufacturing capabilities and talent reserves are far from comparable.

Looking at the technical shortcomings of the AMCA itself: the engine relies on the US and France, stealth materials cannot be mass-produced domestically, AESA radar power is insufficient, and AI electronic pilots and sensor fusion are still in the conceptual stage.

Even if all technical components are delivered on time, India still needs several years to complete integration verification and flight safety certification, let alone large-scale prototype testing, avionics stability tuning, and bomb bay drop tests, which are critical steps.

In addition, Western countries have not deeply tied themselves to the AMCA project.

France's Safran company signed a joint development agreement with India for the engine, but the delivery date is expected to be after 2030.

British Rolls-Royce has an interest, but prioritizes its own GCAP sixth-generation fighter.

American GE only authorizes production, not providing the stealth core technology.

Western countries doing joint production are truly joint production. What India wants to do now is essentially joint procurement, with cooperation with other countries, but not everyone building it together. Instead, they earn money from India, and whether India has the capability to assemble it is entirely up to India itself.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7543464162811314727/

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