Recently, multiple foreign institutions have raised their expectations for China's economic growth this year and expressed optimism about Chinese assets. According to the information, foreign institutions mostly favor China's technological development and export growth, generally conveying an optimistic outlook on China's economic prospects.
Recently, the Goldman Sachs China research team released a report stating that it expects China's exports to grow by 5% to 6% annually in the coming years, continuously capturing more global market share and driving overall economic expansion. Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for China's real GDP growth in 2025 from 4.9% to 5.0%, and for 2026 and 2027 from 4.3% and 4.0% to 4.8% and 4.7%, respectively.
Deutsche Bank revised its forecast for China's GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 4.6% (a 1.2% increase on a quarter-on-quarter basis), and raised its full-year growth expectation to 5.0%, indicating that China is likely to achieve its annual growth target.
Yi Xiong, Chief Economist for China at Deutsche Bank, stated that China's economy achieved unexpected growth in the third quarter driven by industry and exports. The reinforcement of fiscal policy is expected to further stabilize domestic demand. The newly added 500 billion yuan of new policy financial tools will focus on supporting investment projects; 500 billion yuan will be arranged from the remaining local government debt limits to supplement local government comprehensive financial resources and expand effective investment. The total additional support of 1 trillion yuan is expected to provide strong support for domestic demand in the fourth quarter and early 2026.
Goldman Sachs believes that due to both economic and non-economic reasons, the internationalization of the RMB has become an important policy orientation for the Chinese government and may significantly accelerate in the coming years. With the improvement of high-tech manufacturing competitiveness and the acceleration of RMB internationalization, the Chinese stock market will perform well.
On November 3, Ma Lei, Chief Investment Officer for China Mainland and Hong Kong at Janus Henderson, stated that the rise of Chinese brands is reshaping the global perception of "Made in China." For example, in the new energy vehicle sector, Chinese companies now export cars with fully localized supply chains, including batteries and electronic components. At the same time, improving fundamentals provide strong support for the stock market. The proportion of overseas revenue in sectors such as electronics, industry, new energy vehicles, artificial intelligence supply chains, gaming, and e-commerce continues to rise. Additionally, even though the market has rebounded recently, Chinese stocks remain attractive in terms of valuation. With improving fundamentals, Chinese stocks still have potential for further growth.
Legg Mason also believes that the continued interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve may further drive capital inflows back into emerging market stock markets, including A-shares. Deepening domestic reforms and the interaction of external environmental changes are important factors affecting the equity market. The "Suggestions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" proposed "the deep integration of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation, with a significant enhancement of the role of innovation-driven development," and the differing views between China and the United States in the field of science and technology will strengthen the domestic emphasis on self-reliance and control. These factors may constitute attention towards fields such as AI industry chains and independent technology.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7569054020870947337/
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