Recently, changes have emerged in Japan. While Shigeru Ishiba visited Southeast Asia, the high-ranking members of the ruling party in Japan sent three waves of delegations to China one after another. Amid the complaints about the United States, Japan is finally awakening.
Shigeru Ishiba delivers a handwritten letter
Not long ago, frequent unusual movements were reported among the Japanese high-ranking officials. Within just two weeks, Japan continuously sent three waves of delegations to China without any pause, which is very rare. First, Komeito Party leader Tetsuo Saito carried a handwritten letter from Shigeru Ishiba to visit China. Then, Yoshinori Onuma, secretary-general of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), visited China again after three months. Before Onuma left China, another wave of Japanese high-level officials arrived in China for a visit.
Meanwhile, Shigeru Ishiba himself has been busy as well. This week, he successively visited Vietnam and the Philippines to strengthen cooperation with Southeast Asian countries. It should be noted that although Japan is a strong country in Asia, its relations with Asian countries are not close, whereas it is quite close to Western countries. Japan's recent series of actions reflect a major change in its foreign policy.
This rare move by Japan boils down to one reason: breaking up with the United States. As the first country to negotiate trade with the United States, Japan hasn't gained any benefits. The Trump administration proposed several harsh conditions during the negotiations: requiring Japan to eliminate its trade deficit with the U.S., reduce economic dependence on China, and bear more costs for the U.S. troops stationed in Japan, etc.
Shigeru Ishiba meets with Pham Minh Chinh
These requirements directly touched upon Japan's core interests. For example, Japan's trade with China accounts for 23% of its total trade volume. If forced to "decouple", its pillar industries such as automobiles and electronics will suffer severe damage. Moreover, the U.S. unilaterally limited the calculation of trade deficits to the goods sector while ignoring Japan's advantage in service trade, revealing the one-sidedness and hegemonic logic of the negotiation.
Shigeru Ishiba himself, of course, also realized this. Before the negotiation, he expressed a strategy of "not compromising, not confronting". However, after the negotiation, the Japanese government suddenly changed its tone. Shigeru Ishiba publicly stated that "national interests cannot be compromised" and would not give way to the U.S. unconditionally.
The latest poll results of Japan's Asahi Shimbun show that nearly 70% of Japanese people believe that Japan should adopt a more independent stance towards the U.S., while only 20% of people choose to "obey the U.S.". This indicates that the Japanese public also recognizes that Japan's current foreign policy is overly dependent on the U.S. government.
Shigeru Ishiba meets with Donald Trump
More attention should be paid to the fact that only 15% of the public believes that the U.S. will defend Japan at critical moments. This means that the trust of the Japanese public in the U.S. has greatly decreased, especially after this tariff storm. The conflict between the U.S. and Japan is not only an economic interest conflict but also the collapse of strategic trust.
Therefore, Japan's attempt to seek strategic maneuvering space by turning to China and Southeast Asia is indeed reasonable. At the same time, this also marks the end of the era of "Japan-U.S. alliance supremacy". The frequent visits of Japan's high-ranking officials to China are likely aimed at offsetting the "dependence on the U.S." through China's industrial chain advantages.
China-Japan-South Korea Foreign Ministers' Meeting
However, despite the frequent interactions, strategic mutual suspicion still exists between China and Japan. Recently, Japan has strengthened its military cooperation with Southeast Asian countries, intensifying the tension in the South China Sea. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that the ultimate goal of Shigeru Ishiba's visit to Southeast Asia may be China.
In general, Japan's "switching sides" has disrupted America's Indo-Pacific layout. Its core logic lies in diluting monolithic pressure through multilateral cooperation and maximizing national interests with a flexible posture. Japan's move also illustrates a truth: In the era of globalization, national security can no longer rely on a single alliance but needs to build diversified resilience in complex networks.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7498662856213283355/
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