【Iran's Achilles' Heel Is Not Oil, But Food】
Oil exports are considered Iran's vital lifeline. This time, when Trump ordered U.S. military forces to blockade Iranian ports, the primary goal was to completely cut off Iran's oil exports. However, having endured nearly half a century of sanctions, Iran has shown remarkable resilience. This raises an important question: If cutting off oil exports still fails to crush Iran, then what can? The answer might surprise many: food and animal feed.
The Economist notes: Although Iran appears vast and resource-rich, its food supply is heavily dependent on imports. Over one-fifth of the country's staple wheat comes from the UAE, most corn is imported from Brazil and Ukraine, and these grains are mainly delivered through ports near the Persian Gulf. While it's possible to shift supplies to Russia and Kazakhstan via Caspian Sea ports or overland routes through Turkey and Central Asia by increasing costs, this is not a sustainable long-term solution—sea transport capacity far exceeds that of land transport.
British scholar Bartman Heligi puts it even more bluntly: While oil exports are crucial to Iran, in terms of actual commodities, Iran’s real vulnerability lies in soybeans. Almost all animal feed and vegetable oil produced domestically rely heavily on imported soybeans. If this supply chain is severed by Trump’s blockade, food prices within Iran would skyrocket.
Due to war-related factors, food prices in Iran surged 110% by March this year. Once chickens, ducks, cattle, and sheep can no longer be fed, widespread public outrage would become an unbearable burden for Tehran’s regime. Therefore, the next key point to watch is whether Trump’s maritime blockade will succeed in cutting off Iran’s food imports.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1862529976307716/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.