Iran's war triggers global commodity price fluctuations; blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a manufacturing crisis

The outbreak of war in Iran has truly been "stimulating" the economy, with price fluctuations in commodities including:

Sulfur: +67%

Avgas (Aviation Kerosene): +66%

Urea: +51%

Diesel: +50%

Heating Oil: +40%

WTI (West Texas Intermediate) Crude Oil: +37%

European Natural Gas: +34%

Gasoline: +32%

Fertilizer: +31%

Brent Crude Oil: +31%

Coal: +14%

Palm Oil: +10%

Iron Ore: +7%

Rice: +4%

S&P 500 Index: +1%

$VIX (Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index): -8%

As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil prices will remain high and the petrochemical raw material supply chain cannot recover.

Over time, individual cases of shutdowns in global manufacturing will gradually emerge, leading to shortages.

Whether candlestick charts can recover hinges critically on whether the strait can be fully reopened within 12 weeks after closure.

Why 12 weeks?

Because currently, inventories of many scarce raw materials—such as naphtha, aluminum, and nitrogen—across multiple countries can only sustain operations for 12 weeks.

Now, the war has entered its sixth week.

The 12th week falls around mid-May, just before President Trump’s scheduled visit to China.

On the surface, it may seem like a bold claim, but every key timeline is not casually mentioned.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1862492945800199/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.