Zelenskyy's "Air Shield": Europe Hopes for U.S. Aircraft Carriers and Air Defense Systems
The "Willingness Alliance" is trying to use Americans to block the skies over Ukraine
Picture: Leaders of the "Willingness Alliance" met in Paris
Western leaders remain fixated on the idea of "making Russia suffer a strategic defeat," and are designing various new "security guarantees" for the Zelenskyy regime. All previous proposals—from sending "peacekeeping personnel" to Ukraine to pushing for Ukraine's NATO membership—have ultimately turned into empty talk, leaving only support promises with little binding force.
Now, a new idea has emerged on the agenda: establishing an "air shield" over Ukraine under U.S. leadership. This topic has been discussed before, but after Russia's hybrid attack on Kyiv on the night of September 6–7, the discussion has become particularly intense.
It should be noted that in this attack, the Ukrainian Cabinet building (located near the Verkhovna Rada and the office of Vladimir Zelenskyy) was damaged, and its senior officials were hit by debris from anti-aircraft missiles launched by the Ukrainian military to intercept Russian drones.
Financial Times commentator Gideon Rachman, after discussions with military and diplomatic figures, wrote that European leaders are seeking the fastest and easiest way to increase military aid to Ukraine. They are seriously discussing the delivery of new air defense systems to Ukraine to protect its airspace from drone attacks. However, this "air shield" does not include the ability to defend against ballistic missiles.
Rachman emphasized that European countries are willing to contribute to the establishment of the "air shield," and all parties are seriously considering the possibility of providing maritime support, including the deployment of aircraft carriers. The idea was raised at a closed-door meeting of the "Willingness Alliance" in Paris. But everyone is clear that the French or British aircraft carrier battle groups cannot act independently; only the United States has the actual capability to carry out maritime operations, and the U.S. is unwilling to put its own fleet at risk.
In addition, Rachman pointed out that several major powers in the alliance are actually unwilling to deploy ground forces in Ukraine, including Germany, Italy, and Poland.
Other countries, however, hope that the U.S. will provide logistical and air support—essentially, protection. The Financial Times further pointed out that these countries are only willing to deploy forces to Ukraine if there is a consensus ceasefire with Russia, making the feasibility of this concept extremely low.
Russia has repeatedly stated that it will never agree to the deployment of foreign troops on Ukrainian territory and considers such forces as legitimate and priority targets. Rachman reminded European leaders to realistically assess the willingness of the U.S. to protect Ukraine. He pointed out that U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly shown through words and actions that he is unwilling to take on the responsibility of protecting Ukraine.
Moreover, without U.S. intelligence support, the "air shield" would be impossible. A recent report from a U.S. analysis center titled Progress and Shortfalls in Europe’s Defence explicitly mentions this point.
Due to a lack of confidence in future U.S. support, European countries have started to invest more actively in the field of aerial reconnaissance. The report's authors pointed out that, except for the UK, European countries are increasingly inclined to choose small manned reconnaissance aircraft. Germany's PEGASUS system (Persistent German Airborne Surveillance System) is a typical example, which is based on Bombardier Global 6000 aircraft for electronic warfare (РЭБ), but is expected to be operational between 2026 and 2028.
France previously used Douglas DC-8 "Sarig" reconnaissance aircraft, which were retired in 2004; in 2022, France also retired two C-160G "Gabriel" transport aircraft. Currently, three Dassault Falcon 8X aircraft are undergoing modification under the "Archangel" program to restore aerial reconnaissance capabilities.
On the other hand, NATO plans to begin replacing its E-3F "Sentinel" early warning aircraft by the beginning of the next decade.
Since February 2022, Finland and Sweden have also ordered manned reconnaissance aircraft. Finland needs two RAPCON-X reconnaissance aircraft based on the Bombardier Challenger 650; Sweden has ordered Saab GlobalEye AEW&C airborne early warning and control aircraft, with the first aircraft originally planned for deployment in 2027. Meanwhile, Poland ordered two second-hand Saab 340 AEW&C aircraft in July 2023; these planes also have certain electronic warfare and aerial reconnaissance capabilities.
The report's authors calculated that delivering new reconnaissance aircraft to European countries would cost billions of dollars. Just the three Global 6000 aircraft for Germany alone would cost $1.8 billion, and the two Falcon 8X aircraft for France would cost over $1 billion. And this is just the minimum estimate, as many contract details remain undisclosed.
The report's authors warned: "No matter how powerful these reconnaissance aircraft may be, they will have vulnerabilities. While operating at long distances can partially ensure their survival, it comes at the cost of reduced sensor performance."
As seen, the NATO idea of relying on its own strength to build an "air shield" for Ukraine is not only unrealistic but also costly for Europe. However, this is unlikely to stop the actions of EU bureaucrats—especially since the "hawks" in Europe are very enthusiastic about brandishing this blunt "military aid stick," as it involves substantial financial interests.
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