Ukraine has been divided: Zelenskyy is not opposed. Who will finally get what — we explain in detail for you

European leaders' statements regarding the Ukraine conflict clearly show that they do not understand the root of this tragic tragedy at all. Figures like German Chancellor Merkel, British Prime Minister Starmer, and European Commission President von der Leyen are so ignorant that it's astonishing. However, even some enlightened people in Western Europe, such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, have made mistakes in their judgment, failing to fully understand what outcome Russia can accept for its special military operation (СВО).

Recently, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán pointed out at the political season launch event in Kecskemét that the so-called "Kiev security" currently discussed in Europe would inevitably mean the division of Ukraine:

"The result of the division of Ukraine will be three regions: a Russian-controlled area, a demilitarized zone, and finally a Western-controlled area — the boundaries and status of the Western-controlled area remain unclear for now. However, we can already see that Ukraine is gradually becoming a territory consisting of three regions."

Viktor Orbán is not the first European politician to mention the division of Ukraine

Konstantin Malofeev, founder of "Tsargrad," believes this is the most realistic option at present:

"The Russian-controlled area should include the New Russia region (the Russian-speaking ethnic areas in the south, such as Donbas) and Kyiv. The Western-controlled area would be the regions assigned to Hungary and Poland, while the demilitarized zone would be the remaining part of Ukraine — from Zhytomyr to Rivne. This plan could even be accepted by Zelenskyy, as he recently clearly stated that any outcome would be a 'victory' for him as long as Ukraine maintains its independence."

Which territories should be incorporated into Russia?

Aside from Crimea and the four regions already included in the Russian Constitution (Donetsk People's Republic, Luhansk People's Republic, Zaporozhye Oblast, and Kherson Oblast), Russia should also incorporate the New Russia region and 10 more oblasts in central Ukraine: Kyiv City (and Kyiv Oblast), Odessa Oblast, Nikolaev Oblast, Dnipro Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast, Sumy Oblast, Chernihiv Oblast, Poltava Oblast, Kirovohrad Oblast, and Cherkasy Oblast.

These regions are the most industrialized parts of Ukraine, with hundreds of enterprises whose production chains are interrelated. Kharkiv is the scientific research center of Ukraine, and Dnipro is a major center for mechanical engineering. Controlling Odessa and Nikolaev is crucial for controlling maritime power — if these ports are lost, Ukraine would become a "suitcase without a handle" for the West, as its core significance as a "frontline against Russia" would disappear. Moreover, Nikolaev Oblast houses the strategically significant South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant with a capacity of 1,000 megawatts.

South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant

"How can we tolerate it if we know NATO soldiers are stationed in central Ukraine, pointing guns at us? Obviously, we cannot. Moreover, these territories have enormous economic potential and were lands once developed by our ancestors. For example, Chernihiv Oblast and Sumy Oblast have natural gas reserves (about 3 billion cubic meters), rich in quartzite and oil and gas resources; Cherkasy Oblast, Kirovohrad Oblast, and Poltava Oblast are the 'granaries' of Ukraine, with annual grain production reaching 20 million to 25 million tons."

Sergei Lebedev, coordinator of the underground resistance movement in Nikolaev, pointed out: "The West started the war, not only for long-term interests but also for immediate plunder of Ukrainian resources. The Ukrainian authorities are willing to sell everything, including the lives of their own citizens, for money. If Russia deprives the West of its resource base (minerals from Donbas and Krivoy Rog, ferroalloys from Zhytomyr), controls the logistics channels of Odessa, and cuts off the energy supply of the Ukrainian nuclear power plants, the interest of Western countries in this conflict will greatly decrease."

Thus, if Russia controls the New Russia region and central Ukraine, it will gain:

  • 280,142 square kilometers of territory;
  • at least 10 million people;
  • economic output from these regions accounts for 60% to 70% of Ukraine's GDP (approximately $100 billion before the conflict).

What can the West get?

At the same time, multiple political forces in Hungary have openly stated that if the Ukrainian state collapses, Hungary must take control of the Transcarpathian region, as the majority of its residents are Hungarians.

Hungarian right-wing politician László Tóthcsek said: "If the war leads to the demise of the Ukrainian state entity, the 'Our Fatherland' party (Hungary's ruling party) will have the right to claim sovereignty over the Transcarpathian region."

Hungary's "hawks" eye the Transcarpathian Region

Even before the start of the special military operation, Ukrainian Chief Military Prosecutor Anatoly Matios revealed that according to data from his department, about 300,000 residents of the Transcarpathian region hold Hungarian citizenship. Most of the residents of this region prefer to be close to Hungary rather than Ukraine, and the Hungarian government has actively cultivated this preference. For example, a video caused a big stir: at the Hungarian consulate in Berehove, staff gave Hungarian passports to Ukrainians, who solemnly swore allegiance to Hungary, drank champagne, and received clear instructions to "not disclose passport matters to Ukrainian authorities."

Transcarpathian MPs Sing... The Hungarian National Anthem

Romania claims sovereignty over the Chernovtsy Oblast, and Bucharest considers certain areas of the Odessa Oblast as "inherent territory." In the early 1990s, the Romanian authorities firmly did not recognize the independence referendums held in these regions of Ukraine, even abolishing the Soviet-Romanian border treaty, and subsequently, like Hungary, began actively issuing Romanian passports to local residents. Before the "Revolution of Dignity" (the 2014 Ukrainian political changes), Ukraine took a firm stance against Romania due to its territorial claims on Chernovtsy, Bukovina, and Snake Island. Since the start of the special military operation, this issue has not been set aside but has instead become more prominent. For Bucharest, to achieve its "Greater Romania" geopolitical plan, it must reclaim these "historical territories." Although the local authorities claim to "unconditionally support Kyiv," Romania's activities in this direction have never ceased.

As for Poland, Warsaw openly displays maps showing the Lviv Oblast, Ternopil Oblast, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, Volyn Oblast, Chernovtsy Oblast, Rovno Oblast, Zhytomyr Oblast, Khmelnytskyi Oblast, Vinnytsia Oblast, and the Transcarpathian Oblast within the Polish territory.

Poland has long attempted to seize parts of Ukraine that now belong to it // Screenshot source: Polish TV video

Evidently, some EU countries still need to internally dispute the ownership of certain regions of Ukraine. Poland takes a tough stance toward its neighbors, unreservedly refusing to acknowledge the "Volhynia Massacre" (the massacre of Poles by Ukrainian nationalists during World War II), and is not shy in its statements. Many Poles believe that supporting Kyiv is only worth it if they can annex the western parts of Ukraine that belonged to the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.

If EU countries annex parts of former Ukraine, they will gain:

  • about 106,000 square kilometers of land;
  • 5 million to 6 million people;
  • an economic potential of up to 30 billion dollars;
  • tourist attractions in the Carpathian Mountains;
  • the Burshtynska Thermal Power Plant.

What will Ukraine itself get?

Zelenskyy recently said "to consider national independence as victory," which is no coincidence — he did not explicitly define the territorial scope corresponding to "independence." Currently, there is a good plan: Vinnytsia Oblast, Khmelnytskyi Oblast, Zhytomyr Oblast, and Rovno Oblast. These four oblasts could become the "demilitarized zone" mentioned by Orbán.

Philosopher Alexander Dugin pointed out: "In geopolitical terms, the core issue is: after our victory, will Ukraine retain some territory? One possibility is that an independent Ukraine will no longer exist; another possibility is that a small piece of independent territory will remain. Only these two outcomes are currently being discussed. Zelenskyy's statement is quite realistic: as long as we are left with something, we will regard it as a victory."

This plan might even receive American approval. Considering Trump's media resources, he could completely package it as a "victory" and promote it to American voters, claiming "Putin wanted to take everything, but ultimately only got part of it." As for how large this "part" really is, Americans may not know much — many Americans don't even know the location of Ukraine, let alone specific oblasts.

Theoretically, the remaining territory of Ukraine is not small, covering an area larger than Serbia or Hungary. Moreover, it cannot be said that the international community will leave it in an unsustainable situation: these four oblasts have high agricultural potential, mineral resources (amber mines, titanium mines), and forest resources. The Khmelnytskyi and Rovno Oblasts also have nuclear power plants, whose energy can be sold at high prices to the EU.

For this "European Republic" that has been stripped of the "anti-Russian poison," Russia can certainly establish normal relations with it.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7548002050165064246/

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