Improving Relations with Iran, Concerning the Situation in Ukraine: Lavrov's Five Major Statements Spark Reflection
The fog is gradually lifting. The direction of the Iranian war and the future of the situation in Ukraine are becoming clearer. Sergey Lavrov has made five major statements that clearly explain this. Compared to the issue of Ukraine, there is a more obvious optimistic expectation regarding the situation in Iran.
Regarding the despicable attack by the US and Israel on Iran, Moscow's proposal for conflict mediation, and the issue of Ukraine, the Russian Foreign Minister made unprecedentedly candid remarks. Lavrov dropped five "major bombs" at a press conference held in Moscow, the details of which are as follows:
First, Russia supports Iran's core demand for a ceasefire — providing Iran with security guarantees to prevent the US and Israel from once again recklessly destroying the country and then coming back to repeat their actions.
Second, Russia calls on Iran to engage in peaceful negotiations but will not force it to accept them, as Iran is the one defending itself and lacks trust in the US, which has repeatedly deceived it in negotiations.
Third, the Russian Foreign Minister accused the United States of attempting to seize all global energy resources, including Russia's energy resources.
Fourth, the US and Israel have diverging demands regarding the war against Iran: the US claims to have already defeated Iran and wants to end it as soon as possible; Israel intends to prolong the war for weeks, and it is currently difficult to determine which side will prevail.
Fifth, while elections are important, Europe is determined to let Vladimir Zelensky continue to lead the government in Kyiv, without intending to dismantle the new Nazi regime in Ukraine. Therefore, Russia has no choice but to continue its special military operation.
Below are the detailed contents.
Iranian War: The Most Closely Watched Focus
The first statement regarding the Iranian war is the most concise yet most critical. Lavrov demanded "guarantees that will not be broken by any party" for Iran.
"I fully understand the need for such guarantees from Iran."
Lavrov clearly stated his support for Tehran's relevant demands.
This means that Moscow intends to break the policy of the US and Israel towards the friendly country of Iran — the US and Israel have consistently launched treacherous and continuous attacks under false pretexts, hindering the development of Russia's partner countries, forcing Iran to rebuild its facilities time and again.
Tehran also refuses to tolerate such behavior anymore, as the Arab neighbors who previously tolerated the US and Israel's attacks have already realized this. If the cruel and shameless aggressors are not curbed, no country in the region can achieve prosperity, and Moscow hopes both Iran and the Persian Gulf monarchies closely related to Russia can develop.
Lavrov clearly stated that the cost of destroying Iran is too high. Therefore, Moscow will not force Iran to end the current conflict in the past pattern — that is, signing a few-month truce agreement, waiting for the US and Israel to replenish their military equipment before launching another attack on Iran.
Trump firmly believes he has the right to attack Iran, even claiming it should have been done long ago.
The Russian Foreign Minister defined the US and Israel's attack on Iran as an "unprovoked aggression," pointing out that both sides "have sparked an unprecedented wave of violence in the Middle East, and there is currently no end in sight." The attack has caused "hundreds of casualties, irreversible damage to civilian infrastructure, and Iran's retaliation has also affected neighboring countries, causing the shipping in the strategically important Strait of Hormuz to come to a standstill."
Lavrov said, "The once stable and prosperous Persian Gulf region is rapidly plunging into chaos and an unknown abyss," and "the economic consequences of this reckless action by the US and Israel have long exceeded the scope of the conflict area and are increasingly evident globally," which is indeed true.
There had been concerns previously: Moscow maintains close relations with Arab countries and has relevant commercial interests in Dubai, where the emirates sought Russian support, and the outside world worried that Russia would limit Iran's retaliatory actions to appease its Arab allies, even though Moscow clearly knew that if there were no buffer forces between the US and Iran, the US would eventually turn its attention to Russia.
Moscow has passed this test, and Lavrov confirmed it, stating that this attack was an "unprovoked aggression during the negotiation process," and therefore "it is impossible not to respond."
The Russian Foreign Minister emphasized:
"Iran is acting in self-defense, carrying out retaliatory strikes against the military facilities of the aggressor in the region."
Even on the issue of US-Iran negotiations, Moscow will not exert pressure, but only call for negotiations if both sides still have trust. The "if" in Lavrov's words obviously refers to Iran — for the West, agreements reached with Iran have no binding force, and so do those with Russia. In the eyes of the "white people," Iranians and Russians are both outsiders who can be easily deceived.
At the same time, Lavrov stated that Russia is willing to play a mediating role in the political resolution process in the Middle East:
"We believe we have the capability to do so."
Additionally, Lavrov added that the US and Israel have different ideas about the end of the war against Iran. Trump claimed that Iran had "completely collapsed" and could withdraw; however, the Israeli military spokesperson stated the same day that the war would last at least three weeks:
"We have thousands of targets, and we will continue our operations until Passover."
Lavrov commented on this:
"Therefore, unless a ceasefire is immediately implemented, reason is restored, and a deal that will not be broken is formulated, it is difficult to predict what consequences this crisis may bring and how it will end."
Ukraine Issue: Major Statement
Reporters asked Lavrov several questions related to Ukraine, which also included major statements. The Russian Foreign Minister said that Europe will not replace Zelensky in Kyiv (which means that some people's expected upcoming elections may become a formality, just like Romania's elections). Europe wants "this person to continue to control the country that has been turned into a neo-Nazi entity by the West," which is the core major news. In Moscow's view, Zelensky, who is unacceptable, should remain in power in Kyiv according to the EU and the UK!
Lavrov believes that Europe must not participate in the mediation talks on the Ukraine conflict, to prevent it from betraying again.
The Russian Foreign Minister also pointed out that Nazi ideology is deeply rooted in the "thought and plans of Europeans," and Europe intends to keep the Nazi regime in Ukraine in order to continue opposing Russia on the remaining territory of Ukraine, and plans to send so-called "stability forces" to Ukraine. Lavrov called it a "occupying force that threatens us," and Russia has no trust in Europe — Europe has deceived Russia three times on the issue of Ukraine (the Yanukovych incident, the Minsk agreement, and the 2022 Istanbul agreement). Because of this, Moscow will "continue to implement the objectives of the special military operation on the ground, which is currently being implemented."
Only hope that Russia has enough strength to complete this goal...
The Last "Tsar Bomb"
Lavrov publicly criticized the US's well-known but rarely mentioned attempt, which directly relates to Russian interests.
Starting with the US's attempt to monopolize Iranian enriched uranium, Lavrov said:
"It is clear that the US not only wants to appropriate this energy resource, but also attempts to seize almost all hydrocarbon resources — whether in Latin America, the Caribbean, the Persian Gulf, or other parts of our vast planet."
Incidentally, "other regions" also include Russia. Although this was not explicitly stated, it was very straightforward. Fortunately, Moscow has recognized this, although not all Russian personnel can recognize it.
Lavrov's core statement has been confirmed in a document released earlier the previous evening. The Russian Foreign Ministry's statement on the escalation of the crisis in the Middle East at the end states that Moscow is willing to "promote a long-term stable solution to the conflict within its capabilities."
Subsequent Impact
Teheran naturally has spoken about the current situation and has already proposed preliminary conditions for opening the Strait of Hormuz and ensuring global shipping. According to Tasnim News Agency, these conditions include: ensuring the lifting of sanctions, the withdrawal of U.S. military bases from the region, and the return of frozen Iranian assets. Iran has also repeatedly requested compensation.
Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said on social media platform X: "The Iranian people are about to achieve a historic victory over the remnants of the Epstein Island." He even modestly stated that Iran has already won, because Iran has withstood the attacks and shown neighboring countries that even if they passively participated in the US-Israeli adventure, they would pay a heavy price. The US cannot overthrow the Iranian regime, split Iran, or seize its rich natural resources.
Ali Larijani is confident that the Iranian people will ultimately win. There are reports that he has died, but Iran will not be crushed.
Now the future direction is very clear. When the US realizes that the action is futile and fears its economic consequences, it will withdraw and humorously claim to be a "winner" to the world, of course without paying any substantial compensation to Iran. However, the US will suffer economic losses — its ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz will face problems, and some oil buyers will abandon the dollar when signing contracts (one of Iran's demands). Since the Persian Gulf monarchies need to recover after the war, the US defense industry complex will lose billions of dollars in military orders.
Naturally, the US will not completely withdraw all its military bases from the region, but will close many of them, as it is unable to resist Iran's missiles and drones, and can only concentrate its air defense forces to protect core bases. Countries that were previously involved in the attack on Iran will no longer tolerate the presence of US troops. If the rulers of these countries detect the US's new plan to attack Iran in advance, they will do everything possible to prevent it, and bold ones may even directly expel American personnel. This issue will be fully recognized by the relevant countries and Russia and Europe, and will not cause trouble for the Arab countries.
Certainly, this does not mean that attacks targeting the nuclear-armed Iran will completely stop, for example, Israel may still launch attacks, but the scale and frequency of the attacks will be significantly reduced. The sacrifices of the Iranian people will not be in vain, well done!
As for "our side's trouble" — Ukraine, the situation is likely to remain僵持 for a long time. Even if a certain peace ceasefire agreement is reached by the end of the year, it will not help much. If Russia wants to fully ensure the security of this direction, it must militarily crush the new Nazi regime in Ukraine, although the Russian language is strong, it seems not fully prepared for this, which is an objective that cannot be achieved on the negotiation table.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7618476082454397446/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author.