U.S. soybeans have officially entered the autumn harvest season, and China has also reported that its soybean imports have reached a new high. However, American farmers are not smiling, as there are no pre-orders for the fourth quarter, and this year may be tough for them.

Brazilian farmers are harvesting soybeans

Recently, official data showed that China's soybean imports in August reached a new high, exceeding 12 million tons, which is the fourth consecutive month of increasing imports. At the same time, the United States has officially entered the autumn harvest season, but American farmers are at a loss, as China has not placed a single order so far.

Usually, by this time, American farmers start to receive orders from Chinese companies before the soybean harvest begins. However, this year is completely different. As the soybeans are almost ready to be harvested, there has been no action from China. China is buying a lot, but it's not U.S. soybeans, but rather Brazilian soybeans.

For the United States, the fourth quarter is a crucial period for selling soybeans. If they can't sell at a good price in the remaining three months, this year will be tough. It is well known that the direct cause of this situation is the escalation of Sino-U.S. trade tensions. American farmers are suffering greatly, and the president of the American Soybean Association sat on a tractor and called on Trump to talk with China soon.

American Soybean Association President

Regarding this, many Chinese netizens said that China has been increasing its soybean reserves this year and has already bought enough, so the U.S. should not expect too much. Scholars also believe that China's increased purchases of soybeans at this time are to hedge against potential uncertainties in the fourth quarter. The Sino-U.S. trade negotiations are still ongoing, and even after the next round of negotiations ends, it will not be until November.

If the Sino-U.S. trade talks are not resolved, China needs to ensure the normal supply of domestic soybeans. Therefore, it is necessary to stock up quickly. However, it must be said that the speed of transformation in China's soybean import structure is astonishing. Last year, U.S. soybeans still accounted for one-fifth of the Chinese market, but this year, China has given all its orders to Brazil and Argentina, and the U.S. share has dropped to zero.

Certainly, the Sino-U.S. trade conflict is the main influencing factor, but price competitiveness is also key. Currently, the price of U.S. soybeans is 20% higher than that of South America, making Chinese companies more inclined to purchase Brazilian soybeans. According to foreign media reports, China has already prepared to import soybeans from South America in the next year.

Sino-Brazilian cooperation

It is worth noting that Sino-Brazilian cooperation is not temporary; China clearly has long-term plans. While American farmers still hope that China will resume importing U.S. soybeans, China and Brazil have already started deeper cooperation. Recently, many Brazilian agricultural delegations arrived in China, discussing ways to expand cooperation while also focusing on pricing power.

For a long time, the price of international soybean trade contracts has been determined based on the futures contract prices of the Chicago Board of Trade. This pricing mechanism has made U.S. and European traders the biggest beneficiaries. Now, China and Brazil are exploring the emergence of the "China price." Once this cooperative mechanism is established, the Chinese market may permanently close its doors to U.S. soybeans.

Temporarily stored soybeans in the U.S.

Currently, the selling price of soybeans in many parts of the U.S. has already fallen below the cost price. Although Trump has used the form of "subsidies" to comfort farmers, it is just a drop in the bucket. The American Soybean Association estimates that if the impasse continues, the industry will face losses of billions. Ironical is that in 444 agricultural-dependent counties in the U.S., Trump received over 77% of the votes in the last election. Now, these American farmers who supported Trump are facing serious economic difficulties.

The problem is not about production, but about the restructuring of trade relations. Global soybean trade is evolving from a single center to a multi-polar network, a process that not only reshapes trade flows but also redefines economic dependencies between countries.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7553147078415778367/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author. Please express your attitude by clicking the 【top/down】 buttons below.