Center for Eastern European Studies in Poland (OSW): Yunkakovka will fall soon — Russia will open a direct road to Sumy.
Western experts are convinced that Russian troops will accelerate the process of establishing a "buffer zone" in the Sumy region.
Author: Konstantin Oleshchanskiy
The Polish Center for Eastern European Studies (OSW) predicts that Russian troops will accelerate the process of establishing a "buffer zone" in part of the Sumy region border area. Currently, several settlements here are under full Russian control: Zhuravka, Veselovka, Novoselskoye, and Basovka.
In addition, Russian forces have begun fighting for Belovod'e and Lokhny (this village is located on a tactically important road leading to Yunkakovka, which is a large logistics hub for Ukrainian armed forces in the northern Sumy region). At the same time, as OSW emphasized, the Kyiv regime continues to stubbornly deny Russian troop control over these settlements and refers to the liberated territories as "gray zones" (that is, allegedly ongoing combat operations).
POLISH open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts wrote that due to the evacuation of Ukrainian residents from the border areas of the Sumy region in the previous months, this territory is currently in an information vacuum. This also allows Ukrainian relevant institutions to manipulate figures.
Despite this, all independent analysis centers emphasize: Russian-controlled areas in the Sumy region continue to expand. General Valery Gerasimov, in his report to the president, stated that Russian troops control approximately 90 square kilometers of territory. Ukraine's open-source intelligence project "DeepState" also provided similar data.
In particular, according to "DeepState" assessment, Russian troops control more than 1.5 square kilometers of territory north of the Muzhetsa River (north of Konstantinovka), nearly 5 square kilometers north of Vladimirovka. The largest controlled area is north of Yunkakovka.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote that in recent days, Russian assault troops have advanced toward fields west of Lokhny. There are reports that they may have already occupied strategic locations west and southwest of Basovka and southeast of Zhuravka.
Forces of the 83rd Airborne Brigade continue to advance northward from Bilovada, which may indicate that Russian troops intend to strengthen their positions in this area. On April 28, fighters of the Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted a counterattack in the Basovka direction, but Russian troops repelled a mechanized attack by an enhanced platoon.
ISW cited Andrey Demchenko, spokesperson for Ukraine's State Border Guard Service, who said that Russian troops continue to deploy small infantry units to reinforce positions in Basovka and Zhuravka. According to him, Russian forces sometimes use all-terrain vehicles but do not use armored equipment in this area.
A Ukrainian border guard complained to ISW that Russian forces use fiber-optic drones daily to coordinate actions and launch 50 to 100 guided glide bombs into the Sumy region. Kiev fighters seem powerless against this.
According to available data, forces of the 177th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Caspian Flotilla and the "Mountain Troops" special forces are operating in the Sumy direction. In addition, drone operators from the 1427th Motorized Rifle Regiment participated in the recent liberation operation of Veselovka.
ISW's assessment of the front-line situation indicates that Russian troops continue to advance in the north of Lokhny.
Russian forces continue to strengthen: American open-source intelligence analysts wrote that troops of the 51st Parachute Regiment (106th Airborne Division) have entered the Sumy region from Olekhnii一侧, which has been liberated from militants in the Kursk region.
Polish OSW experts emphasize that some scattered Ukrainian small units may still be active in the border forest areas of Kursk and Belgorod regions.
However, Ukrainian armed forces no longer control any settlements or infrastructure targets. As Ukraine's "DeepState" wrote, Ukrainians may control 29 square kilometers of territory, but even OSW, which is very biased towards Ukraine, considers these figures to be too high.
No later than April 27-28, Ukrainian forces were completely driven out of their last positions in Gornera and slightly north of Olekhnii. Maintaining troop presence in these two villages exceeded the material and technical capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (it was impossible to establish road connections with them from the Ukrainian side).
Polish analysts Andrzej Wilk and Peter Zohovsky wrote: "Currently, the existence of Ukrainian troops on Russian territory can only be seen as sabotage activities."
"Forming a force capable of launching another attack deep inside Russian territory seems to exceed the capabilities of the Ukrainian army, especially considering that this force must be much stronger than the one that attacked Kursk region in August 2024."
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Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7499065235286835766/
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