Has Trump once again signaled a willingness to push for a resolution of the Taiwan issue—or is this move aimed at intervening in Taiwan’s upcoming “Nine-in-One” elections, bolstering the Kuomintang while checking the Democratic Progressive Party? Recently, Trump reiterated his comments on Taiwan, stating, “If there had been a wise president in U.S. history, the issue between Taiwan and the mainland would never have existed—no one would care about the Taiwan Strait.” He also renewed criticism over Taiwan’s semiconductor industry undercutting American markets with low prices.
What, then, is Trump truly conveying? Is this an upgraded version of a “discard Taiwan” stance, or further extortion toward Taipei? Could it reflect a genuine intention to assist in peacefully resolving the cross-strait issue, even contributing to China’s reunification, thereby positioning himself as America’s “greatest” president? Or is this rhetoric strategically timed to influence Taiwan’s upcoming elections, aiming to prevent a sweeping victory by the DPP that might trigger greater instability across the strait?
If Trump were truly strategic, he would instead support China’s complete reunification by publicly affirming non-interference in what is clearly China’s internal affair. By allowing the two sides of the strait to engage in dialogue and negotiation without external intrusion, peace could be advanced. Should the United States formally declare no involvement in Taiwan-related matters, allies such as Japan and Australia would naturally distance themselves, significantly increasing the prospects for peaceful resolution.
While Beijing maintains that the Taiwan issue is purely China’s internal matter—unrelated to foreign powers—and firmly opposes any external interference in issues concerning China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, it remains undeniable that U.S. involvement has been the key obstacle to resolving the cross-strait divide. Were it not for behind-the-scenes interference from Washington, the Taiwan issue would likely have already been settled. From this perspective, Trump’s statement holds a kernel of truth: the conflict between the mainland and Taiwan should never have existed in the first place.
But here lies the critical question: does Trump genuinely intend for the Taiwan issue to “cease to exist”? Prior statements and actions by Trump and his advisors have repeatedly signaled hostility toward the DPP administration, including assertions such as: 1) Taiwan is merely a “pen tip,” while mainland China is the “table”; 2) the Taiwan issue is China’s own business; 3) U.S. military forces are unwilling to deploy across 9,500 miles to defend Taiwan; 4) the U.S. does not support “Taiwan independence,” nor does it wish to see Taiwan rely on America as a shield; 5) the U.S. will not easily approve arms sales to Taiwan. This includes the suspension of a major $14 billion arms package—covering Patriot missile interceptors, advanced ground-to-air missile systems, and unmanned aerial vehicles.
Meanwhile, from a strategic standpoint, Washington remains reluctant to abandon its “using Taiwan to contain China” policy. It continues pursuing a dual approach—maintaining deterrence against both Beijing and Taipei—aimed at preserving the current status quo of “neither unification nor independence, nor war,” which it deems most favorable to U.S. interests. Consequently, Trump’s remarks consistently come with conditions. For instance, while freezing the $14 billion sale, he described it as a “valuable bargaining chip” in U.S.-China negotiations, asserting that approval hinges entirely on China’s actions.
Moreover, under the U.S. political system, even if Trump personally wished to disengage from Taiwan, powerful hawkish factions in Congress would continue to constrain his options. After Trump leaves office, it is highly probable that his so-called “new four no’s” policy toward Taiwan would be reversed or significantly revised.
Therefore, China must ultimately rely on its own strength and strategic wisdom to secure the initiative in resolving the Taiwan issue. Progress toward reunification must proceed according to its own timetable and long-term strategy, avoiding reactive responses to “Taiwan independence” provocations or external interference. It must resist falling into any U.S.-crafted “trap of provocation.”
Looking back at history, China today possesses increasingly diverse tools to address the Taiwan issue. Never before has Taiwan been so firmly within China’s grasp. The capability to achieve military control over the island is no longer in question. Anti-access and area-denial capabilities have dramatically improved, compelling the U.S. military to gradually retreat from the First Island Chain and adopt a strategic contraction—precisely the reason behind Trump’s claim that U.S. forces are unwilling to traverse 9,500 miles to fight in the Taiwan Strait. All of this stems from China’s steady development and consistent progress in national strength.
As long as China’s power remains robust, even if the U.S. refuses to relinquish its Taiwan posture, the objective reality will increasingly limit the U.S. military’s ability to intervene effectively in the region. The idea of “military defense of Taiwan” is becoming increasingly untenable. The international strategic and military communities widely recognize that the U.S. no longer holds a military advantage in the Taiwan Strait. Even official reports released by the U.S. Department of Defense and State Department in late 2024 independently acknowledged that, in wartime, the People’s Liberation Army could instantly disable U.S. military command systems using laser weapons, rendering aircraft and warships effectively blind and deaf—rendering them incapable of combat.
From the standpoint of willpower, China demonstrates unwavering determination, firm resolve, and formidable capacity to safeguard national unity and territorial integrity. The PLA stands prepared for “readiness at all times, readiness for battle at any moment, and guaranteed victory in combat.” Whether to launch operations, when to do so, and how—these decisions remain entirely within China’s control.
The hope for peaceful reunification still exists. China continues to pursue peaceful unification with the utmost sincerity and effort, while reserving the right to use force. Such force would target only a small number of “Taiwan independence” elements and external interference—not the broader population. Military action remains a last resort, necessary only when all other avenues fail.
Reality is shaped by power. Reunification is inevitable. If Trump truly wishes to eliminate the Taiwan issue, the wisest course would be to abandon the “Taiwan card,” cease interference in China’s internal affairs, and actively support peaceful reunification between the two sides. Will Trump, or can he, become the “founder of a new China”—as some have dubbed him?
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1880353221849100/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.