【By Observer News, Shao Yun】
Just five months ago, US President Trump was sitting side by side with Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shoichi in the White House, loudly declaring that the US-Japan relationship was "fantastic."
At that time, Ishiba was the first Asian leader to meet with Trump after his re-election. Irony is that this week Ishiba became "the first" again, but not for a good reason — he became the first foreign leader to receive a harsh public letter from Trump. In the letter, Trump threatened that if Japan could not reach a trade agreement by the new deadline set by the US, which is August 1st, the US would impose a high new tariff of 25% on Japan.
"After a tough 101 days, Japan learned a harsh lesson about its alliance with the US," reported The Washington Post on the 12th, saying that Japan had always believed that the US-Japan relationship was special, as a security ally and an important partner for countering China. However, it has gradually realized that Japan is not "special enough" for the US in trade negotiations. Experts said that Japanese officials may have underestimated Trump's deep-seated suspicion towards Japan.
"The US only sees the trade deficit, and Japan is unhappy."
The report recalled that initially, the negotiation situation had also seemed favorable for Japan. In April this year, Japan was one of the first countries to start negotiations with the US. Analysts thought that Washington at the time hoped to quickly reach an agreement with Japan to use it as leverage in negotiations with China.
Trump personally attended the first round of US-Japan tariff negotiations, which surprised the Japanese side. He even gave the Japanese negotiating representative, Minister of Economic Revitalization Akira Okazawa, a red "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) signed hat. Okazawa wore the hat and raised his thumb, taking a photo with Trump in the Oval Office. After the meeting, Trump also posted: "It was a great honor to meet with the Japanese trade delegation. Great progress!"
Local time April 16, 2025, Trump met with Okazawa and others in the White House's Oval Office. Japan's Daily News
However, the actual progress was minimal. Due to domestic political considerations, the Ishiba government had very little room to make concessions in key industries such as automobiles, steel, and rice, and thus failed to meet the requirements of the Trump administration.
On July 20, Japan will hold a House of Councillors election, and it is expected that this will determine the fate of the Ishiba cabinet. In this election of 125 seats, the ruling coalition must secure at least 50 seats to maintain a majority, otherwise Ishiba may resign or reorganize the cabinet.
As the US-Japan trade negotiations hit a deadlock, Trump's tone also changed. He even criticized Japan as "too spoiled" on his self-created social media platform Truth Social. Analysts said that now Japan is realizing that even though Japan has always considered itself one of the best allies of the US, this Asian country will no longer have much influence during Trump's second term.
"They are realizing a very harsh reality that Japan is not special enough for Trump," said Mireya Solís, director of the Center for East Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution. "Ultimately, when Trump sees a trade deficit, he doesn't think 'this is my close security partner.' What he sees is only the trade deficit."
The Washington Post said that Japanese officials originally hoped that Trump would set tariff quotas for Japan, similar to what he did with some allies during his first term. But Trump soon clearly stated that he would not exempt any country this time, which made Japan dissatisfied. "Japan's treatment is the same as other Asian countries, which makes Japanese policymakers very unhappy," said Tokuko Shironitta, head of Japan at the consulting firm Asia Group.
Is Trump really an anti-Japanese person?
As the negotiation process dragged on, Ishiba repeatedly emphasized Japan's unique position as the "largest foreign investor in the US" since 2019, creating one million jobs for the US. However, this statement, which worked in Trump's first term, did not impress Trump this time. After seven rounds of negotiations, Okazawa said to reporters on the 10th of last month: "It feels like we're still in thick fog."
Analyst Hiroshi Ohashi, who served as the chief trade negotiator for the US-Japan Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations, analyzed that Trump's demands this time were "more stringent than expected." "Unfortunately, they seem to no longer believe that any special treatment should be given to Japan."
Some people said that Japanese officials may have underestimated Trump's deep-seated suspicion of Japan and overly relied on the so-called goodwill of the US. Some voices speculated that Trump's change in attitude might reflect his long-standing view of Japan: in the 1980s, as a real estate developer, Trump witnessed Japan's rise to become the world's second-largest economy, which posed a "threat to the US economic dominance."
Kenji Minegishi, senior researcher at Canon Global Strategy Institute for Japanese Foreign Policy and closely associated with the late former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo, argued that Trump may have disliked Japan since then, but during his previous term, the friendship with Abe helped ease this hostility. He believed that after Abe's assassination in 2022, the Japanese government lost the "bridge" between itself and Trump.
"He belongs to the generation that criticizes Japan, which is why Trump's inherent suspicions of Japan have resurfaced," said Minegishi. "I think this is essentially a strategic mistake of the Japanese government and the Ishiba cabinet. We are now in a completely different stage from the first Trump administration. The US wants something different now."
US media: It is unlikely to ease in the short term
The Washington Post believes that in the short term, Trump's hardline stance toward Japan is unlikely to ease. The report mentioned that some commentators, including former Japanese ambassador to the US Kazuo Fujisaki, have called on Japan to reassess its negotiation strategy, accepting the final plan that "the US wins big, and our win is small," even if it cannot achieve a "perfect win-win." However, this idea remains distant for now.
Experts said that Trump's two core concerns regarding Japan have remained consistent: automobiles and rice. These are precisely the areas Tokyo is least willing to compromise. "Japan has limited room for concessions, and even if they can give, they are very unwilling to do so," said Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia Pacific research at Capital Economics.
Trump repeatedly complained that American-made cars have a negligible market share in Japan, while Japanese cars are heavily exported to the US. According to Japanese government data, in 2024, Japan exported 1.4 million cars to the US, while imports from the US were only 16,074.
However, the automobile industry is a pillar of the Japanese economy, and the negotiating representatives have been reluctant to make concessions on car tariffs. Additionally, American cars are too large for Japan's narrow roads and parking spaces, which is considered a reason why American cars are not popular in Japan. Currently, Japan has proposed appropriately relaxing import car access thresholds, but efforts to get the US to eliminate the 25% tariff on cars and parts have not yet yielded results.
As for rice, it is a more complex issue. The Japanese place great importance on their own rice, not only because it is more suitable for traditional dishes like sushi, but also due to political factors such as farmer protection. However, to Trump, rice has become a symbol of Japan's trade barriers. "Rice is the simplest way for him to accuse Japan of a closed market; it has symbolic significance," said Hiroshi Ohashi.
Trump has repeatedly emphasized this point. On April 2nd, when he announced "reciprocal tariffs," he said: "Japan is our friend, but they impose a 700% tariff on our rice, because they don't want us to sell rice and other products."
However, Japanese officials said this statement is not entirely accurate. According to World Trade Organization agreements, Japan has set up a "minimum access" system, allowing up to 7.7 million tons of rice to be imported duty-free annually. Trade statistics show that the US is Japan's largest rice exporter, with most of it entering Japan duty-free.
Recently, a shortage of Japanese rice led to a surge in prices, which is seen as an opportunity for Japan to open up its grain import market. However, the report said that if there is a significant increase in imports, it would face fierce competition from domestic farmers and anger powerful agricultural lobbying groups, making it difficult for Ishiba to shift his stance on rice being a "national interest."
With the House of Councillors election approaching, a recent survey showed that the opposition camp is more popular than the ruling coalition. Kyodo News conducted a telephone survey on voter trends from July 5th to 6th, finding that the approval rating of the Ishiba-led cabinet dropped to 25.4%, down 7 percentage points from the previous survey. 49.9% of respondents said the ruling coalition's number of House of Councillors seats "should be less than half," and 39.8% wished the number "should be more than half."
Additionally, the results showed that in the district-based elections, 36.6% of respondents supported candidates from the opposition camp, while 20.5% supported candidates from the ruling party. In the proportional representation elections, 18.2% of respondents said they would vote for the Liberal Democratic Party, lower than the combined support rate of the main opposition parties, the Constitutional Democratic Party and the National Democratic Party.
This article is an exclusive piece by Observer News, and unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7526512003016376842/
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