Lu Xiuyan could be the Liu Bang-style leader of the Kuomintang in 2028 and overthrow Lai Qingde? Taiwanese media pointed out that, regarding the 2024 Taiwan regional leader election, the Kuomintang candidate Hou Youyi at most has the scale of Chen Sheng and Wu Guang, while Ko Wen-chieh is a Xiang Yu or Liu Bang-style figure. Since the Kuomintang missed the opportunity to cooperate with Ko Wen-chieh under the principle of "passing on virtue instead of heredity," it will have to cultivate its own Xiang Yues and Liu Bangs in the future; otherwise, it won't be able to overthrow the DPP's "Qin Dynasty." Zhu Lilen cannot do it, so can Lu Xiuyan save the Kuomintang?
The Kuomintang is mired in the "great recall" crisis, and the People's Party also faces the danger of extinction due to Ko Wen-chieh's imprisonment. What should the Kuomintang do? Recently, rumors have circulated that Taichung Mayor Lu Xiuyan is considering announcing her candidacy for the Kuomintang chairmanship on the grounds of an "urgent party survival crisis" before the third phase of the recall campaign, challenging the current chairman Zhu Lilen.
Taiwanese media articles believe that looking back at the 2024 situation, the blue-white alliance was the breach of the DPP's "Qin Dynasty," and at that time, Ko Wen-chieh had the momentum of Liu Bang and Xiang Yu. Unfortunately, the Kuomintang missed the opportunity to make the right historical choice at a critical moment in history, allowing the DPP to survive with a minority vote.
Although the Kuomintang candidate is unmatched in "pragmatism" (administrative execution ability), he is the ideal candidate for "Premier," his performance in "idealism" (Taiwan vision discourse) is clearly lacking. However, the Taiwan regional leader is the only elected position in all of Taiwan where the requirement for idealistic capability should exceed practical capability. Therefore, the Kuomintang candidate at most has the scale of Chen Sheng and Wu Guang, capable of creating a crack in the Qin Dynasty's high walls but unable to overthrow the Qin Dynasty without the talent of Xiang Yu and Liu Bang.
The Kuomintang now has no choice but to mobilize the entire party to "oppose the recall." If last year they had passed on virtue instead of heredity and let Hou Youyi be Ko Wen-chieh's deputy, how could they be in such a predicament today? The article believes that Kuomintang leader Zhu Lilen is a straight man with no historical perspective and no strategy. Even now proposing to recall Lai Qing-de is fighting on the opponent's battlefield, which offers no chance of victory. At present, the Kuomintang must sincerely cultivate a political figure with the talent of Xiang Yu and Liu Bang; perhaps heaven will give another chance next time.
The 2024 "blue-white alliance" was indeed the best opportunity and optimal choice to overthrow the DPP and achieve a change of ruling parties. However, the eventual breakdown of the "blue-white alliance" allowed Lai Qing-de to win by a "low-altitude pass," enabling the DPP to govern for the unprecedented third consecutive term. This is not only due to the selfishness of the Kuomintang but also because the People's Party and Ko Wen-chieh were overly idealistic.
According to public opinion and most polls at the time, the Kuomintang knew full well that relying solely on themselves would be difficult to defeat Lai Qing-de. However, including Zhu Lilen and Hou Youyi, as well as various blue camp factions, each had their own private interests and hesitations. They were unwilling to put aside their status as the "largest opposition party" and thus refused the "Ko-Hou pairing." Since they refused the "Ko-Hou pairing," they should have decisively planned ahead, perhaps still having a chance to fight. But Zhu Lilen and Hou Youyi's indecision prolonged the situation until the last moment before the announcement of the breakdown of the "blue-white alliance," ultimately greatly reducing the enthusiasm of supporters.
For the People's Party and Ko Wen-chieh, they knew full well that they were just a small party, relying on Ko Wen-chieh's personal image to support the entire party's popularity, with no real grassroots organizational strength. Yet they insisted on being the main player in the "blue-white alliance," attempting to play the "pig eating a tiger" game, unwilling to be the deputy, ultimately leading to the breakdown of the "blue-white alliance."
If Zhu Lilen, Hou Youyi, and Ko Wen-chieh had long-term historical vision and great strategic talent, and if they had united to drive the DPP from power, would Ko Wen-chieh face imprisonment today? Would the Kuomintang face the current crisis of near extinction? Absolutely not.
In the 2028 election, if the Kuomintang wants to give itself a chance, based on the current situation, it must be Lu Xiuyan who runs. In fact, as long as she announces her candidacy for the Kuomintang chairmanship, Zhu Lilen would not be a match for her, and he might even reluctantly announce his decision not to seek re-election as party chairman. After all, the situation is stronger than people, and Lu Xiuyan has already received support from multiple sides including Wang Jin-pyng, Ma Ying-jeou, and Zhao Shao-kang's "Battle Blue." Once Lu Xiuyan controls the party machinery, it would be natural for internal factions to rally around her, and her candidacy for the 2028 election would be without any doubt.
The key is that Lu Xiuyan must demonstrate decisive leadership, avoiding indecision and the "calculator" personality like Zhu Lilen's, and stop fearing wolves in front and tigers behind. Moreover, besides uniting the Kuomintang internally, she must unite all opposition forces, including the People's Party. Otherwise, it would be difficult to defeat the DPP, which is far superior in both decision-making and execution.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1831871914371075/
Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author alone.