There are 8172 words in this article
Reading time is expected to be 20 minutes
Author | Husain Haqqani
Translator | Cao Yinceng
Translation Reviewer | Liu Xingjun
Editor of This Issue | Zhang Mimi
Reviewer of This Issue | Chen Jueke
Editor's Note
The author of this article is former Pakistani Ambassador to the United States, Husain Haqqani. After stepping back from Pakistani politics, Haqqani has long worked at the Hudson Institute, a renowned conservative think tank in the United States, and is a typical "pro-American" figure in Pakistan's strategic circle. The article focuses on how to reshape and deepen U.S.-Pakistan strategic cooperation against the backdrop of the "Trump 2.0 era" of U.S. foreign policy. Haqqani believes that Pakistan's geostrategic value is irreplaceable, and strengthening cooperation between the United States and Pakistan is in the interest of both sides. The U.S. should respect Pakistan's independent judgment based on its own geostrategic reality; while Pakistan needs to accept its position as an "important partner" rather than a "core ally" of the United States. However, the article's views inevitably reflect a "U.S.-centric" perspective and traditional U.S. diplomatic viewpoints, essentially requiring Pakistan to actively cooperate with the U.S. geopolitical strategy. For example, the article suggests that the U.S. needs to increase investment in Pakistan economically to balance China; the U.S. should use "civil society" to improve Pakistan's "democracy and human rights," etc. On one hand, the author praises the Trump administration's mediation of recent India-Pakistan conflicts, believing that the Trump administration will adopt a more pragmatic foreign policy; on the other hand, it selectively downplays various issues in Pakistan, such as domestic terrorism, nuclear weapons, and business environment, expecting the Trump administration, which pursues "strategic retrenchment," to increase investment and aid to Pakistan. This mindset is very contradictory. The South Asia Research Newsletter has translated this article for readers to critically refer to.
Image Source: Internet
According to reports, the recent India-Pakistan crisis brought these two South Asian nuclear powers to the brink of war until the United States intervened and prevented the escalation of the situation. This crisis highlights the necessity for the United States to continue maintaining contact with Pakistan - Pakistan is located at a key geostrategic crossroads, and its historical relationship with the United States has always been complex.
The U.S.-Pakistan relationship has experienced many ups and downs. In the early days of his second term, Trump has indicated that he intends to adopt a more pragmatic foreign policy, even maintaining relations with countries that have different beliefs or values. Therefore, there is a greater opportunity for the improvement of U.S.-Pakistan relations - provided that the leaders of the two countries focus on common interests rather than ideological differences.
People in the United States who criticize Pakistan often accuse it of accepting U.S. military aid without aligning with U.S. priorities on India and Afghanistan. On the other hand, Pakistan complains that the United States does not consider Pakistan's concerns and interests in the region while demanding unconditional support.
Compared to previous administrations, the Trump administration recognizes that "a country's geographical location may determine its strategic considerations." Pakistan sees India and Afghanistan as key countries related to its security interests; therefore, Islamabad's views on these countries may differ from Washington's.
The United States should not demand Pakistan to view its surrounding situations from a Western perspective, but should respect Islamabad's independent judgment based on its own geostrategic realities. This pragmatic approach would be more conducive to building a functional U.S.-Pakistan partnership. It should be emphasized that this policy adjustment will neither weaken the U.S. stance on promoting democratic values nor affect its demands that Pakistan take responsibility for its historical support of certain armed groups and terrorist forces.
In his first congressional speech of the second term, Trump specifically mentioned that Pakistan helped arrest and extradite a fugitive "Islamic State Khorasan Province" (IS-KP) terrorist. This statement shows that the Trump administration is beginning to objectively acknowledge Pakistan's counter-terrorism cooperation, rather than only emphasizing its shortcomings in combating terrorist organizations.
Pakistan seems willing to set aside its usual expression of "the U.S. can share happiness but not hardship." Its civilian and military leaders have established close ties with China and realize that U.S.-India relations are improving. Like many Asian countries, Pakistan hopes to maintain a certain level of neutrality in the U.S.-China dispute. But forward-thinking business elites in Islamabad and some Pakistani military leaders have clearly expressed their openness to the U.S.'s proactive engagement.
Now is a good opportunity for the U.S. and Pakistan to lay the foundation for a more practical partnership in areas of common concern. For example, the two countries have common interests in counter-terrorism. Although there may always be differences between the two countries on the issue of India, India-Pakistan conflicts do not benefit any country. Similarly, the U.S. and Pakistan may also have differences on the issue of China, but Washington needs to prevent Islamabad from relying too much on Beijing.
After years of tense relations, the U.S. and Pakistan need to explore new modes of interaction. For the U.S., policymakers should move beyond traditional aid pressure and public criticism, seeking more effective ways to interact with Pakistan. For Pakistani leaders, they need to realistically recognize that although Pakistan is not a core ally in the U.S. Asian strategy, it can still be a partner that Washington values.
I. Common Interests
The U.S.-Pakistan relationship has experienced periods of deep cooperation and turbulent times. With the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan and the intensification of Sino-U.S. competition, some people believe that Pakistan is no longer as important to U.S. interests as it was before. But in fact, Pakistan still plays an important role in multiple strategic areas for the United States.
Firstly, a stable South Asia requires a relatively stable Pakistan. Preventing conflict between the two nuclear-armed countries, India and Pakistan, is in Washington's interest. If the United States overly favors India and ignores Pakistan, it will lose influence. The India-Pakistan crisis in April to May 2025 demonstrated the importance of U.S. involvement and the role the U.S. can play in preventing a nuclear war in South Asia.
As India's influence in South Asia increases, all countries in the region, not just Pakistan, may seek to establish deeper ties with China to balance New Delhi's influence. Therefore, Washington needs to maintain its relationship with Pakistan. Acknowledging India's regional dominance does not mean disconnecting from India's neighbors.
Therefore, the United States should strive to ensure that Pakistan does not become overly close to China. Although China and Pakistan have long-term cooperation and will continue to deepen it, Pakistan also wants to maintain its relationship with the United States. Therefore, the United States should not hand Pakistan over to China. Preventing the Sino-Pakistani relationship from becoming too close also serves India's interests.
Secondly, as an Islamic country close to the Middle East, joining the "India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor" (IMEC) would benefit Pakistan, a project supported by the Trump administration. Pakistan's participation can enhance the feasibility of the project and may encourage Islamabad to reduce its hostility towards India.
Thirdly, the U.S. and Pakistan also have common interests in counter-terrorism, especially when Pakistan faces dual challenges of instability along the Afghan border and deteriorating security in Balochistan. Overall, the U.S. benefits from Pakistan's counter-terrorism efforts.
Although some factions within Pakistan welcomed the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, Islamabad is deeply concerned about the threat posed by the Taliban in Afghanistan. The Taliban regime has established external relationships beyond Islamabad's control and has shown a passive attitude toward combating the TTP, which aims to establish strict Islamic law in parts of Pakistan. The U.S. should strive to prevent the TTP and other extremist groups from gaining power or expanding their influence in a nuclear-armed Pakistan.
The rift between Pakistan and Afghanistan provides an opportunity for short-term security cooperation between the U.S. and Pakistan, and to pressure the Taliban in Afghanistan. The U.S.'s main counter-terrorism concerns in Afghanistan and Pakistan are the "Islamic State Khorasan Province" (IS-KP) and remnants of Al-Qaeda, not the TTP. However, Pakistan can provide intelligence on IS-KP's activities to the U.S. in exchange for U.S. support in combating the TTP.
Fourthly, Iran remains a potential source of common interests between the U.S. and Pakistan. The U.S. has discussed with Gulf Arab states and Israel how to expand the security umbrella to counter "aggressive Iran." In this regard, Pakistan can also play a key role by cooperating with the U.S. and Gulf Arab states.
Islamabad is also concerned about "aggressive Iran." Historically, Iran has used sectarian divisions within Pakistan to recruit Pakistanis into the Fatemiyoun Brigade (a Shia paramilitary force under the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, established around 2014, participating in the Syrian civil war to support Bashar al-Assad, considered an Iranian proxy force), to fight in Syria, which has drawn "late" attention from Pakistan. Pakistan conducted air strikes on Iranian territory in 2024 - making it the first country since the Iran-Iraq War to take such action against Iran - in retaliation for Iranian airstrikes. Closer U.S. involvement and intelligence sharing could encourage Pakistan to further counter Iran's inappropriate actions.
Finally, a politically and economically stable Pakistan that respects the human rights of its people, achieves development goals, and maintains good relations with its neighbors is significant for both Pakistan and the United States. Washington also hopes that Pakistan can achieve sustained economic growth.
However, despite the continued engagement of the U.S. with Pakistan's civilian government, military officials, and major political parties and leaders being meaningful, the U.S. should remain cautious and avoid excessive involvement in the country's complex internal political disputes. The following sections will elaborate on the areas covered by U.S.-Pakistan common interests. The last section will present policy recommendations.
II. Security Cooperation
Historically, the United States has benefited from maintaining close contacts with senior Pakistani military officials. However, in recent years, such interactions have become rare. This is regrettable because engaging with senior officials of the Pakistani government and military is crucial for advancing U.S. policy interests.
For decades, the security relationship between the two countries dominated the U.S.-Pakistan relationship. Pakistan has long aimed to enhance its military capabilities to address potential conflicts with India, so military aid has always been a central topic of discussion between the two leaders. During the Cold War, Pakistan provided the U.S. with bases for conducting intelligence reconnaissance flights over the Soviet Union or secretly opposing the Soviets in Afghanistan.
The once-solid security relationship between the two countries gradually weakened, which was a major cause of the rift in their relationship. If the U.S. and Pakistan are to lay the foundation for a more realistic partnership, they must cultivate a sustained security cooperation relationship.
As mentioned above, both countries have an interest in cultivating a stable Afghanistan to prevent future attacks by groups like Al-Qaeda and the "Islamic State Khorasan Province." Washington needs to help contain the spread of terrorist groups in the region. In this process, Pakistan can play an important role in intelligence sharing and conducting counter-terrorism operations.
U.S. policymakers have long doubted Pakistan's determination to combat extremist groups within its borders (especially those targeting India or Afghanistan). However, concerns about international isolation and its economic consequences have prompted Islamabad to take limited actions against these groups. Pakistan has been removed from the list of "Jurisdictions Under Enhanced Monitoring" by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF); to avoid being listed again, Pakistan must continue to strengthen its anti-money laundering (AML) and counter-terrorist financing (CFT) systems.
Most of Pakistan's strategic strength is still aimed at matching India. The U.S. should continue to prevent Pakistan from developing strategic weapons that could be seen as targeting the U.S., and clearly state that the development of such weapons will affect U.S.-Pakistan relations.
Ensuring the safety of Pakistan's nuclear weapons and preventing the proliferation of its nuclear technology has always been in the U.S. interest. Washington is also concerned that extremist groups might gain access to Pakistan's nuclear technology or materials. At the same time, U.S. policymakers remain concerned about the possibility of a nuclear war escalating between India and Pakistan.
Over the past three decades, the U.S. government has consistently emphasized the necessity of in-depth dialogue with Pakistan on nuclear-related issues. Although Pakistan occasionally expresses reservations about participating in these dialogues, every U.S. president has acknowledged Washington's confidence in Pakistan's nuclear safety measures. The Trump administration should continue to engage with Pakistan on dialogue to ensure that Islamabad meets the highest standards in nuclear material safety and prevents it from becoming a source of nuclear proliferation.
III. China-Pakistan Relations
Although the U.S.-China relationship has changed over the past few decades, Pakistan's view of its eastern neighbor has remained relatively consistent. Islamabad believes that a good relationship with China is crucial for countering India. Pakistan has long-term economic and security ties with Beijing, but hopes to maintain its relationship with the United States. Washington should take advantage of this desire.
Over the past 30 years, China and Pakistan have deepened their ties in economic, military, and technological fields, especially due to the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This corridor is part of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Although U.S. policymakers are currently cautious about foreign aid, helping Pakistan address debt sustainability issues and improve its transparency and ability to comply with international lending institutions' regulations may reduce Islamabad's dependence on China. Given the overall realignment of U.S. foreign aid, Washington needs to re-evaluate the effectiveness of its aid to Pakistan.
The Chinese port project in Gwadar, on Pakistan's Arabian Sea coast, is another concern for Washington. If China gains access to a port facility 250 miles from Oman and close to the Gulf, it would create a more challenging operational environment for U.S. military planners. Therefore, the U.S. is interested in seeing Pakistan continue to maintain a balance in its U.S.-China relationship. Policymakers should not only view Pakistan through the lens of China, but also ensure that Pakistan does not become China's "proxy."
Over the past 20 years, China has also been increasing its soft power in Pakistan. For example, the number of Pakistani students studying in China has exceeded those studying in the United States. Additionally, there are numerous direct flights between China and Pakistan, and many Pakistanis are learning Chinese. However, the U.S. still holds a unique appeal for most Pakistanis. Therefore, Washington should strengthen the support within Pakistan for those who advocate for closer ties with the U.S. and promote Western values and culture.
IV. India-Pakistan Relations
During the Cold War, the U.S. tried to maintain a strategic balance by balancing the India-Pakistan relationship. However, over the past two decades, the U.S.-India relationship has deepened, increasing Pakistan's concerns. Pakistan continues to view its relationship with India as a zero-sum game, which is significant for Washington, but both India and Pakistan have vested interests in ensuring that the U.S. continues to be involved in the region.
The U.S. is one of the few countries capable of exerting influence in potential military conflicts between India and Pakistan. Although Washington has explicitly stated that it does not want to act as a mediator in the Kashmir issue, its intervention in the 2019 Pulwama-Balakot crisis, the aftermath of the 2022 unexpected missile attack, and the 2025 Pahalgam crisis indicates that preventing and managing the escalation of India-Pakistan tensions still aligns with U.S. core interests.
As the U.S. continues to deepen its strategic relationship with India, the Trump administration should also engage with Pakistan. Maintaining Washington's presence in South Asia helps stabilize a region prone to conflict and confrontation.
V. Economic Relations
The U.S.-Pakistan economic relationship has never reached its full potential. The U.S. remains the main destination for Pakistan's exports and has always been a major provider of humanitarian and development assistance. However, the lack of active bilateral trade or technological cooperation has limited the development of the relationship.
During the Cold War, Pakistan was the main recipient of U.S. economic aid. Subsequently, from 2002 to 2018, Islamabad received $34 billion (over $2 billion annually) from Washington, but from 2019 to 2024, it averaged only $265 million per year. In 2023, Pakistan received approximately $280 million, and in 2024, it received about $230 million.
The Trump administration is likely to terminate or significantly cut commitments related to climate change projects. It has already drastically reduced foreign aid. Pakistan will have to learn to survive without the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which has been working in the country for many years.
This creates an opportunity for Washington to shift its focus from aid to trade and investment in Pakistan. Pakistan can become an important partner for the U.S. in obtaining key mineral resources. If Pakistan can create a favorable investment environment, it will encourage American mining companies to provide financing for gold and copper mining in the country and explore other mineral resources. Islamabad can also become a supply chain partner for Washington, especially in labor-intensive industries. Because the U.S. hopes to shift production from China. Pakistan can also benefit by reducing tariffs on goods imported from the U.S. and narrowing the trade deficit with the U.S.
In recent years, Pakistan's labor costs have relatively declined, with hourly wages being more competitive. Moreover, the turmoil in Bangladesh has temporarily increased Pakistan's share in the global textile industry. Although many American companies are cautious about investing in Pakistan, American companies that have invested in consumer goods, agriculture, financial services, information and communication technology, renewable energy, and healthcare sectors generally perform well.
Although Pakistan's market size is not as large as India's, its 240 million population plus a growing middle class makes it a worthy investment target in an increasingly multipolar world. Therefore, the U.S. should work with Islamabad to improve its business environment, allowing American companies to seek opportunities in emerging sectors of the Pakistani economy, such as IT and telecommunications.
Companies investing in Pakistan face regulatory issues, policy uncertainty, insufficient protection of intellectual property, fluctuating tax policies, and security problems. To attract more American investments, Islamabad needs to continue stabilizing and reforming its economy.
This will be a difficult task, as economic crises are not new to the country. Since 1958, Pakistan has received 24 loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Pakistani leaders understand the importance of structural reforms, but entrenched interest groups resist any reform. In the past two years, the Pakistani government has implemented some major reforms in collaboration with the IMF. However, this will be a difficult task, possibly taking years or even decades.
The U.S. has been a key economic partner of Pakistan, with bilateral trade reaching $12 billion. Washington is also one of the largest sources of foreign direct investment (FDI) for Pakistan. U.S. FDI has contributed significantly to Pakistan's economic modernization: in the fiscal year 2022, U.S. FDI inflows amounted to $257 million, second only to China (706 million) and the Netherlands (305.8 million).
Pakistan's reliance on Chinese financing appears to have reached its peak in total foreign debt, and Pakistani policymakers have realized this and are willing to explore alternative financing mechanisms to reduce dependence on Chinese capital. If Pakistan accelerates its economic reforms, it could attract a large amount of American capital.
In public speeches after the India-Pakistan crisis in April to May 2025, President Trump seemed willing to use enhanced trade links with Pakistan as an incentive. The Pakistani government should take this opportunity to strengthen its trade links with the U.S.
VI. Technology
Pakistan's IT industry is one of the fastest-growing sectors in its economy, accounting for about 1% of the country's GDP, or $3.5 billion. Pakistan's domestic IT industry has more than 10,000 companies and benefits from the funding and expertise provided by the Pakistani diaspora in Silicon Valley.
Pakistan's digitalization is just starting. Therefore, U.S. technology and telecom companies face opportunities. So far, Chinese companies have dominated this sector. Encouraging Pakistan to improve its business environment and grant operating licenses to companies like Starlink to accelerate the country's digitalization and help Pakistan strike a balance between Washington and Beijing in this critical area.
The development of Pakistan's technology industry has also catalyzed the growth of its IT service exports, which now reach nearly $2 billion annually. In 2022, Pakistan's IT exports to the U.S. were $2.62 billion, accounting for nearly 35% of Pakistan's total service exports in 2023. According to most reports, the U.S. is the largest market for Pakistan's technology (IT) exports and one of the main sources of venture capital in the tech sector. Expanding tech startups and venture capital is significant for both countries. The U.S. should promote future technologies, including artificial intelligence and new energy technologies, so that U.S. companies can enter this country, which is experiencing increasing energy demand and needs to adopt AI to improve agriculture.
According to the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority, Pakistan has 140 million mobile broadband users. Google recently proposed a plan to produce 500,000 Chromebooks in Pakistan by 2026. If Islamabad takes necessary measures to implement economic liberalization and reforms, U.S. investment replacing Chinese investment could help develop Pakistan's telecommunications industry.
VII. Democracy and Human Rights
A relatively stable, economically prosperous, politically open Pakistan that guarantees the human rights of all its citizens has long been a common goal for U.S. policymakers and many Pakistanis.
U.S. policymakers generally believe that Pakistan needs to take more measures to protect the rights of its citizens, especially those of religious minorities and ethnic minorities. Pakistani women are still suffering from honor crimes, sexual violence, and online harassment. The anti-Ahmadiyya laws in Pakistan are a serious concern, especially given the prevalence of extrajudicial killings and mob justice.
Pakistan's government has long suppressed dissent, hindered the work of civil society organizations, and restricted press freedom. Unfortunately, these trends have worsened in recent years. The political turbulence of the past two years, the deteriorating security situation, and the severe polarization within Pakistani society have created a dangerous environment for many citizens.
Within the limits of political reality, Washington should continue to support Pakistan's civil society through more frequent legislative interactions, dialogue between local governments, and broader connections between civil society organizations.
VIII. Policy Recommendations
The U.S. and Pakistan have cooperated in the past. Looking ahead, if the two countries can find common interests and cooperate in a pragmatic way, they will benefit greatly.
Isolating Pakistan does not serve U.S. national security interests. Even selective and limited cooperation with Pakistan is better than its stubbornness. Therefore, Washington should continue to maintain contact with India and Pakistan to prevent and manage any crises between these two nuclear neighbors. After the 2025 crisis, this is particularly important. Given that India-Pakistan conflicts or nuclear escalation pose a serious threat to U.S. interests, the U.S. should participate in mediation during the crisis.
The U.S. is unlikely to change Pakistan's strategic considerations regarding India simply by using a "carrot and stick" policy, and must abandon this approach of previous administrations. Dealing with Pakistan, it is better to treat it realistically rather than trying to shape its self-awareness and worldview as Americans would like.
The U.S. is keen to monitor terrorist organizations; Pakistan also faces threats from armed extremist groups. Washington should encourage Islamabad to share information about the "Islamic State Khorasan Province" and other armed groups. Restoring bilateral counter-terrorism dialogue is in the interest of both countries. Similarly, the U.S. and Pakistan should seek ways to cooperate in Afghanistan, especially in the areas of humanitarian aid and counter-terrorism.
Helping Pakistan combat terrorism at home is in the interest of most countries. Washington should encourage China and Gulf countries to join the U.S. and other countries in urging Pakistan to fulfill its commitments to develop the economy and improve governance in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, while continuing to combat extreme violence in these areas and other parts of the country. If the tension between the U.S. and China eases, the two countries can jointly urge Pakistan to take further measures to significantly weaken terrorist organizations targeting India, preventing them from operating within Pakistan.
Even if the U.S. no longer provides large-scale military aid to most countries, it should maintain communication channels between the U.S. and Pakistani militaries. Training programs such as the International Military Education and Training (IMET) should continue if possible. IMET is a low-cost program that helps build relationships between officers of the two countries. In addition, the U.S. has always been concerned about the safety of Pakistan's weapons of mass destruction. The U.S. should continue to demonstrate the importance of its non-proliferation policy to Pakistan.
Pakistan's geographical location makes it an ideal gateway to South and Central Asia. Therefore, providing Pakistan with alternative economic development options other than China is in the U.S. interest. Pakistan has a population of 240 million, at least 80 million middle-class citizens, and most citizens are under the age of 26, offering significant demographic dividends and labor resources for Western manufacturers.
If Pakistan hopes to become a middle-income country, its per capita energy consumption must at least increase fivefold. Promoting this growth will provide significant opportunities for American companies. Therefore, Washington should urge Islamabad to reform its business environment, creating a fair competitive environment for American companies. If Congress reauthorizes the U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC), the organization can increase its investment in Pakistan, while advancing U.S. strategic interests and countering China's infrastructure projects.
As a country on the front lines of climate change, Pakistan needs support for modernizing its agricultural sector and ensuring food security. The U.S. and Pakistan can collaborate in this area, especially in emerging technologies such as battery storage and improvements in agricultural methods. Critical minerals and critical and emerging technologies are also other areas where the two countries can cooperate.
Finally, Washington also hopes to support individuals in Pakistan who are committed to strengthening the country's democratic institutions and rule of law. The younger generation in Pakistan, who grew up in the internet era, is more concerned about democratic values than their predecessors. The U.S. should continue to promote the development of human rights and civil society in Pakistan.
About the Author: Husain Haqqani is a Pakistani journalist, scholar, and political activist. He has served as a political advisor and spokesperson for former Pakistani Prime Ministers Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto, as well as a high commissioner to Sri Lanka and ambassador to the United States. He is currently employed at the Hudson Institute in the United States.
This article was translated from an article published by the Hudson Institute on June 4, 2025, titled "Engaging Pakistan in a New Era of U.S. Foreign Policy." Original link:
https://www.hudson.org/foreign-policy/engaging-pakistan-new-era-us-foreign-policy-husain-haqqani.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7557028272253485620/
Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author and we welcome you to express your opinion by clicking on the [Top/Down] button below.