On July 23, 2025, the Indian Defense Research Institution website released a statement saying that Dr. Koti Harinarayana, the chief designer of the Tejas fighter, announced "India has overcome sixth-generation aircraft flying wing technology," and said "if the government decides to develop a full-scale unmanned sixth-generation aircraft, the technical preparation is ready." This statement was quickly interpreted by Indian media as a "milestone for India's aviation industry to surpass China."

To be honest, Indians still don't know what they really need or what they are lacking, constantly drawing big pies or on the way to draw big pies. Not to mention anything else, take their fifth-generation aircraft project, the AMCA, which just came out with a model, originally scheduled for its first flight in 2024, but delayed to 2030 due to defects in stealth coating process and integration problems with the flight control system.

More embarrassing is that the AMCA-Mark1 version still relies on the American General Electric F414 engine, while the indigenous GTX-35VS variable cycle engine core test has been delayed for seven years. The 5 billion dollars budget allocated by the Indian Ministry of Defense for this project was evaluated by international aviation experts as "only enough for basic R&D", yet it is required to tackle key technologies of the sixth-generation aircraft such as AI flight control and quantum radar at the same time.

The fifth-generation aircraft project is still under construction, and then they are eager to develop sixth-generation aircraft, they really don't know how many bowls of curry they have eaten.

Saying AMCA is a bit high for them, let's look at the current Tejas fighter instead.

At the same week when the Indian Defense Research Institution claimed to have prepared for developing sixth-generation aircraft, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited had to reduce the number of Tejas fighters delivered in 2026 to six due to the US General Electric F404 engine supply interruption.

This "national pride" launched in 1983 has only delivered 38 units by 2025, with annual production long hovering around single digits. In June 2025, the Indian Air Force was forced to accept the Mk1A model, whose operational range is 500 km, bomb load is 6 tons, and radar detection distance is 200 km, which is completely outperformed by the Pakistani JF-10CE, which has an operational range of 1240 km, a bomb load of 7 tons, and a radar detection distance of 280 km. It is not only unable to fight the Rafale, but under appropriate configuration, it can even compete with the F-22.

The "technical confidence" of the Indian defense industry is largely based on the magical logic of "if China does it, I can do it too." At the beginning of 2025, after two Chinese sixth-generation aircraft test videos were publicly released, Indian Defense Minister Singh quickly approved the AMCA project, declaring "deploying sixth-generation aircraft by 2040," trying to compress the technological gap between China and India to within five years. A former executive of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited told the media that there is a delusion among military officials that "once funds are in place, core technology will be obtained," ignoring the reality that the US refused to provide F-35 source code and France delayed engine technology transfer. More ironically, it was exposed that the technical indicators of India's sixth-generation aircraft directly copied the design documents of China's J-36, requiring "striking northern targets from Tamil Nadu," without even discussing how to avoid the coverage of the DF-26 missile range.

The core contradiction of India's sixth-generation aircraft plan lies in the huge gap between technological ambition and industrial shortcomings. In the field of aviation engines, the domestically developed Kaveri project failed after 32 years of development, while the variable cycle engine required for sixth-generation aircraft needs a thrust-to-weight ratio over 15, and India's highest capability is only 1.2 Mach wind tunnel testing ability.

In terms of the industrial chain, the domestication rate of India's aviation industry is only 62%, titanium alloy annual capacity is 23,000 tons, precision machine tools 84% depend on imports, leading to the AMCA project reducing the domestication rate target from 60% to 42%.

Talent reserves are also extremely limited: there are only 12,000 aerospace engineers in the whole country, supercomputer computing power ranks 111th globally, and it is powerless to support the exa-scale AI computing power required for sixth-generation aircraft.

Compared to the fantasies of the Indian defense department, the Indian Air Force is more practical, with several senior officers demanding priority production of the "Tejas Mk1A," because it can at least fill the combat gap left by the retirement of 217 MiG-21s, rather than waiting for the "science fiction toy" scheduled for service in 2040. If it can also improve the combat capability of the Tejas to the level of the JF-10, they would already be very grateful.

Internal assessment reports point out that even the "Tejas Mk2" planned for service in 2028, with a 700 km operational range and a bomb load of 6.5 tons, still lags behind the JF-10CE by about 15 years, let alone confronting the J-20 or J-35.

Unfortunately, for the Indian government, the actual needs of the military are not important; they need a declaration that can salvage continuous statements, no matter how ungrounded it may be.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7530485732968841737/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author. Please express your attitude below using the [up/down] buttons.