India is in an uproar

Lately, China announced the issuance of export quotas for certain urea fertilizers, with the quantity possibly reaching around 1.5 million tons, though the exact figure remains unknown.

However, this news has greatly excited India, as they finally have the chance to purchase Chinese fertilizers. For them, agricultural production in the coming period will be significantly secured, eliminating concerns over supply chain disruptions.

There are four key points to note:

First, since the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East in February, global supply chains have been in turmoil, with energy transportation severely affected. India has repeatedly appealed to China, hoping to import large quantities of fertilizer from China, but was consistently refused.

Second, starting in March, China announced export restrictions on multiple types of fertilizers due to its own agricultural needs, which has further impacted global fertilizer supplies.

Third, India strongly desires to import more fertilizer products from China because they offer better cost-effectiveness and higher quality.

Last year, over 40% of India’s urea and diammonium phosphate (DAP) imports came from the Middle East region. However, the Strait of Hormuz is not yet fully open for free passage, and the situation in the Middle East remains highly uncertain.

Therefore, India hopes to maintain strong relations with China to secure greater access to essential resources.

Fourth, China’s urea exports account for about 10% of global exports. In 2025, China’s urea exports are projected at 4.9 million tons—lower than the usual annual range of 5 to 5.5 million tons.

This clearly indicates that China’s domestic agricultural development is accelerating urea consumption, leading to reduced exports, a situation that deeply troubles India.

Why is India so happy?

First, it's not only because China has issued partial export quotas for urea fertilizer, allowing India to obtain more fertilizer resources, but even more importantly, it provides an opportunity for India to communicate with China, sustain normal trade relations, and seek cooperation across broader fields.

Second, India’s current economic outlook is not particularly optimistic. With summer heatwaves ongoing, India urgently needs more resources to make up for domestic shortages—especially in energy and water.

If China can provide assistance, it would be ideal. After all, within just one week, leaders from both the U.S. and Russia visited China in succession and signed a series of cooperative agreements. This has made India realize that cooperation with China must accelerate. Moreover, various regions across China are rapidly implementing their "15th Five-Year Plan," creating countless new opportunities for collaboration. Clearly, India wants to speed up its engagement with China.

In summary: Although China has agreed to issue partial fertilizer export quotas, it has not fully opened up exports. Therefore, it is unrealistic for India to purchase large volumes, even if it desires to do so.

Since China also has other partners who need fertilizer resources, it may impose quota limits on Indian purchases to prevent India from buying up all available supplies, thus avoiding further global fertilizer market strain.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1866323808909324/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.