[Military & Weapon Sub-cyberspace] Author: Lele

The news that "Indonesia is going to purchase 42 second-hand J-10s" spread wildly yesterday. Although we look forward to its realization, we also mentioned that this matter is full of strangeness. And with the news that "Indonesia will purchase an additional 12 'Rafales'" on the 28th, confirmed by the Indonesian Ministry of Defense, the truth of the matter seems to have come to light — it's all about price negotiation.

▲Indonesia has really signed another deal for the 'Rafale'

The reason why we felt strange before was that, on one hand, Indonesia, in order to maintain its political independence, has declined offers from Chinese and Russian equipment, and suddenly turning to the J-10 is too fast, making it hard to explain internally. On the other hand, even if they really want to buy the J-10, given Indonesia's economic level, it seems unnecessary to consider a used model. However, if such messages are intended to force France to make concessions, then it becomes very reasonable — the J-10CE has just defeated the 'Rafale' in South Asia, which is common knowledge. By posing as urgently needing fighters and immediately purchasing second-hand J-10s from AVIC, Indonesia can force France to make maximum concessions.

▲Upgraded J-10A resales are quite suitable for countries like Bangladesh

Indonesia's own 42-aircraft order worth $8.1 billion is secondary; what matters most is that once Indonesia truly turns to 'second-hand J-10s', it might trigger a chain reaction in the 'Rafale' market, involving hundreds of 'Rafales'. France would never dare to take such a risk. Macron's visit to Indonesia led to both sides quickly reaching a package procurement agreement for a new batch of 12 'Rafales', 'Caesar' truck-mounted howitzers, 'Squid' submarines, and light stealth frigates. Clearly, Indonesia has reaped rich rewards — using a fabricated 'second-hand J-10' procurement message to force France to make such significant concessions, Indonesia's military trade operation skills have certainly improved over the years.

▲The 'Rafale' has indeed achieved its current status not easily

In fact, such situations have happened many times with domestically produced equipment. Looking further back, when Pakistan purchased a second batch of F-16s in the late 1980s, they fully utilized the project of cooperating with AVIC to improve the J-7, putting pressure on the U.S. More recently, 12 years ago, Turkey announced the FD-2000 securing a $3 billion order, using this to put pressure on the U.S. and Russia, ultimately purchasing the S-400 at an ultra-low price, which Russia originally did not want to provide. Indonesia still wants to maintain its position as a third-world leader, so it favors relatively independent European models in equipment procurement, but the high prices have always been a headache for Indonesia.

▲Pakistan indeed successfully reduced procurement costs by more than $200 million

A fourth-generation semi-heavy 'Rafale' costs nearly $200 million, more than twice the price of the J-10CE, which is the economic cost Indonesia pays for 'independence' — actually, India paid high prices for the 'Rafale' instead of continuing to purchase lower-priced heavy Su-30MKIs or the American F-21 (the ultimate upgraded version of the F-16) because it wanted to avoid political interference from the U.S. and Russia, seeking a certain degree of independence, only to fail in the end. And now, Indonesia dares to repeat the same mistake because there is no country like Pakistan around it.

▲India is very concerned about being controlled after purchasing the F-16

Although Australia has long been considered to have a poor relationship with Indonesia, things have somewhat eased in recent years. Moreover, compared to the F-35A of the former, there isn't much difference between second-hand J-10s and 'Rafales'. Considering France's concessions, Indonesia indeed has the capital to continue purchasing 'Rafales' — from the rare large-scale equipment procurement actions taken by Indonesia, it is evident that using the second-hand J-10 order and defeating the 'Rafale' with the J-10CE to exert pressure on France has been very successful, resulting in significant concessions from the latter. While Macron signed the treaty with a grimace, he probably also cursed the incompetence of the Indian Air Force; otherwise, how could French defense industries suffer such a big loss.

▲The J-10CE has done a great thing for Indonesia

An interesting point is that although Indonesia has signed an intent agreement with France, both parties have not publicly disclosed specific figures as per the usual practice — this is also France's last attempt to save face. What can be said is that although Indonesia did not really acquire 42 second-hand J-10s as expected by the outside world, the J-10 has become a bargaining chip in Indonesia's hands. With Indonesia setting a successful example, others who follow suit are bound to increase, but not every country has Indonesia's defense environment, leaving the J-10 still with its own opportunities.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7509719733281751604/

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