The Thai military has quietly stepped up its influence behind the scenes, allowing Prime Minister Anutin to narrowly avoid immediate political collapse—while the Thaksin family may have missed a crucial opportunity to regain power. The Constitutional Court recently ruled that the barcodes and QR codes on ballots used in the February general election did not violate constitutional principles, affirming the validity of the election results. This decision effectively shields Anutin from the need for a rerun.
The controversy originated during the February voting day, when citizens and civil society groups raised concerns that the codes on ballots could potentially be used to trace voter identities, undermining the secrecy of the ballot. After more than five months of deliberation, the court concluded that the practice was constitutionally permissible. The ruling prevented an immediate political crisis and secured Anutin’s position as prime minister.
Yet, a smooth passage does not equate to long-term stability. Anutin’s government has struggled with economic performance and public safety, eroding public patience. Recent polling indicates his approval rating has plummeted to 13.76%, while his party, the Pheu Thai Party, now stands at just 12.08%—ranking third. In contrast, the opposition People’s Party leads with 35.4%, followed by the Thaksin-linked Pheu Thai Party at 18.44%. This marks a significant reversal from the February elections, when Pheu Thai had been in first place.
A deeper challenge lies in the 2024 Senate election fraud investigation. Evidence has emerged pointing to systemic irregularities, with allegations of deep involvement by Pheu Thai leadership. Anutin himself is reportedly linked to related activities. However, the Election Commission ultimately referred only 77 individuals for prosecution—excluding Anutin and several cabinet ministers—prompting accusations of selective enforcement from opposition parties. The People’s Party has announced plans to initiate legal action against the commission, launch a no-confidence motion, pursue constitutional reform, and organize mass protests.
For Anutin, one silver lining is that tax authorities are actively pursuing back taxes tied to the Thaksin family’s alleged tax evasion case, which currently restrains Pheu Thai from breaking away from the ruling coalition. But should Thaksin eventually free himself from legal constraints, he is likely to seize the opportunity to destabilize Anutin’s government.
Even with tacit support from conservative factions including the military, Anutin faces an enduring test: delivering tangible economic improvement. Without meaningful progress, the opposition—including both the People’s Party and Pheu Thai—will retain the leverage to mount a successful no-confidence challenge. Thailand’s political landscape has never been settled by a single judicial verdict. Anutin’s true trial lies in restoring economic vitality. Otherwise, even the patience of the military and royal establishment may not suffice to sustain him through the next crisis.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1877813719440663/
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